BMI View: Ghana's construction industry is forecasted to expand over our 10-year forecast period as investment flows into developing energy infrastructure, transport logistics and the real estate sector. The narrowing budget deficit will support industry growth by allowing the government to direct increased spending towards key infrastructure projects.
We continue to forecast a recovery in Ghana's construction industry growth in 2016, following an estimated contraction of 2% in 2015 as the country battled severe macroeconomic and operational headwinds. We project the industry will expand 2.1% in real terms in 2016 and 6.2% over our 10-year forecast period.
Our Country Risk team expects Ghana's delayed 2016 eurobond issuance will make an appearance later in 2016 as part of the government's fiscal consolidation programme, which will provide some relief for the budget balance despite decreased revenue from oil exports. This is a positive sign for infrastructure development because as the budget deficit narrows the government will be able to direct increased expenditure towards the construction industry.
While the government is harnessing renewable energy to ease the power shortage, we do not expect this to start a trend in the country's power sector, anticipating major developments to be focused on increasing gas-fired capacity.
Upgrades to port and airport infrastructure are enhancing trade flows in Ghana and across West Africa. Key projects continue to attract private investment and support from international financial institutions.
We forecast the country's real estate sector will continue to provide opportunities for construction industry growth as demand for formal retail space grows and industrial projects progress.
|f=BMI forecast. Source: BMI|
|Construction industry value, GHSbn||18.32||20.81||23.81||27.33||31.53|
|Construction Industry Value, Real Growth, % y-o-y||2.10||4.16||6.00||6.67||7.37|
|Construction Industry Value, % of GDP||11.1||10.9||10.8||10.8||10.8|
Ghana is in ninth place out of 17 countries in our Infrastructure RRI for Sub-Saharan Africa, with a score of 40.7, above the regional average of 39.1.
In comparison to its West African peers, Ghana benefits from a stable operating environment, with limited crime and security risks.
Supply chain disruptions and increased input costs owing to power shortages remain a chief deterrent to entering the market. Corruption in the public sector also dampens investor sentiment.
|Risk/Reward Index||Rewards||Industry Rewards||Country Rewards||Risks||Industry Risks||Country Risks|
The Ghana Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Ghana Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ghanaian infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Ghana to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Ghanaian infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Ghanaian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ghana.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.