BMI View: IT markets in Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria all experienced a sharp downturn in 2014 and 2015 as a result of the downturn in commodity and oil markets, and general increase in negative sentiment towards emerging markets. This served as a reality check on optimism regarding their economic growth trajectory and IT markets as a lack of structural and institutional was laid bare. This resulted in a significant reassessment of both historical data and our growth forecast for all three IT markets in the Q116 update, with all three markets receiving significant downgrades and classified as long-term rather than medium term opportunities for vendors . The outlook is however by no means uniform, with Nigeria expected to underperform due to a reliance on oil exports that will be a drag throughout the forecast period. In contrast Kenya has a more diversified base of economic activity as well as a stronger policy environment that we believe positions it to be the long-term outperformer in terms of IT market and sector development.
Latest Updates And Developments
Ghana Total IT Market Sales: GHS714mn in 2016 to GHS1.1bn in 2019, a CAGR of +16.8% in local currency terms. Ghana is the poorest of the three markets in this report, and has the smallest IT market, but vendors should be able to capitalise on stronger economic performance in the later years of our forecast. Kenya Total IT Market Sales: KES64.1bn in 2016 to KES95.3bn in 2019, a CAGR of +12.4% in local currency terms. Kenya is the most developed IT market and has the brightest medium and long term outlook due to lower level of exposure to commodities market and greater modernisation momentum that should result in broader based economic growth. Nigeria Total IT Market Sales: NGN253.6bn in 2016 to NGN381.0n in 2019, a CAGR of +11.9% in local currency terms. Weakest growth outlook in US dollar terms as oil price slump forecast to remain a drag on domestic purchasing power over the medium term, while enterprise market also has depressed outlook.
|EM Downturn Hit IT Market Growth Trajectories|
|IT Market Growth, 2012-2019|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI|
The Ghana, Kenya & Nigeria Information Technology Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering personal computers and software; semi-conductors, memory chips, integrated circuits and general components; the internet and IT solutions. It analyses analyses regulatory changes (licensing, customs and intellectual property protection) and competitive landscapes comparing IT companies by products, sales, market share, investments, projects and expansion strategies.
BMI's Ghana, Kenya & Nigeria Information Technology Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, IT associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the IT industry in Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya.
- Benchmark BMI's independent IT Industry forecasts for Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Nigerian, Ghanaian, Kenyan IT market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya's IT sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering IT, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the IT sector and within the broader telecommunications, political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- IT Sector: Industry value (USDmn); IT sector contribution to GDP (%); value of hardware, software and services industry (USDmn); PC, peripherals and software imports and exports (USDmn); PC, peripherals and software sales (USDmn); number of PCs (‘000); PCs per 100 inhabitants; internet users (‘000); internet users per 100 inhabitants; broadband subscribers (‘000); broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants.
- Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (USDbn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against USD).
Information Technology Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide technology manufacturers, service providers, and IT vendors/leasing agents looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Country Market Overview
Structure, size and value of the industry sectors including hardware, software and services; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments and government authority.
BMI Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators to end-2019 including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Full analysis of the competitive landscape within the hardware, software and services sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Cross-border analysis of country markets in the region, commenting on IT penetration (PC and internet) and market growth drivers (IT market size and IT market compound growth).
The information Technology Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.