BMI View: The IT markets in Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria all contracted sharply in 2014 and 2015 as a depression in the commodities complex hurt economic performance and resulted in steep currency depreciation against the US dollar that eroded already weak purchasing power. This was as a reality check on previous optimism regarding their economic growth trajectory and IT markets, as a lack of structural and institutional strength was laid bare. The fortunes of the three markets are not however tied that closely, with Ghana and Nigeria more susceptible to further negative shocks in the short-term if the commodities markets take another turn downwards. However, under our core scenario we envisage improved performance over the medium term for all three markets, but caution that there is a long way to go before the rapid growth of IT spending observed in the higher income emerging markets is replicated in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Latest Updates & Developments
Ghana Total IT Market Sales: GHS590mn in 2016 to GHS1.1bn in 2020, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +16.7% in local currency terms. The smallest market in our Africa IT coverage, Ghana's oil growth driver presents downside, but we have a stronger medium term economic outlook that should performance improve from 2014 and 2015.
Kenya Total IT Market Sales: KES47.3bn in 2016 to KES80.7bn in 2020, a CAGR of +14.3% in local currency terms. Less exposed to commodities, and with the most developed IT market in this report, we believe Kenya has the strongest foundations for IT market development through the positive impact of broader based growth on consumer spending and a more diverse private sector that will see higher investment than in oil dependent markets.
Nigeria Total IT Market Sales: NGN173.4bn in 2016 to NGN306.6bn in 2020, a CAGR of +15.3% in local currency terms. Nigeria is the largest market in the region, and has considerable long-term potential, but the economic situation in 2016 has major downside that could delay a return to growth for IT spending until later in the forecast period.
|Cautious Optimism But Downside Risks Are Elevated|
|IT Market Growth, 2013-2020|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI|
The Ghana, Kenya & Nigeria Information Technology Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering personal computers and software; semi-conductors, memory chips, integrated circuits and general components; the internet and IT solutions. It analyses analyses regulatory changes (licensing, customs and intellectual property protection) and competitive landscapes comparing IT companies by products, sales, market share, investments, projects and expansion strategies.
BMI's Ghana, Kenya & Nigeria Information Technology Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, IT associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the IT industry in Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya.
- Benchmark BMI's independent IT Industry forecasts for Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Nigerian, Ghanaian, Kenyan IT market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya's IT sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering IT, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the IT sector and within the broader telecommunications, political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- IT Sector: Industry value (USDmn); IT sector contribution to GDP (%); value of hardware, software and services industry (USDmn); PC, peripherals and software imports and exports (USDmn); PC, peripherals and software sales (USDmn); number of PCs (‘000); PCs per 100 inhabitants; internet users (‘000); internet users per 100 inhabitants; broadband subscribers (‘000); broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants.
- Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (USDbn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against USD).
Information Technology Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide technology manufacturers, service providers, and IT vendors/leasing agents looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Country Market Overview
Structure, size and value of the industry sectors including hardware, software and services; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments and government authority.
BMI Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators to end-2019 including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Full analysis of the competitive landscape within the hardware, software and services sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Cross-border analysis of country markets in the region, commenting on IT penetration (PC and internet) and market growth drivers (IT market size and IT market compound growth).
The information Technology Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.