Ghana Mining Report

Published 18 February 2015

  • 68 pages
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$1,295.00
Ghana Mining Report

BMI View: Ghana's mining sector is heavily reliant on gold production and, as such, will face severe headwinds over the next few years as prices of the commodity come under increasing pressure globally. We expect the country's gold miners to continue reducing capacity and expenditure over the coming quarters, through the country will continue to rank as Africa's second largest gold producer after South Africa. In contrast, bauxite production is forecast to expand at a steady pace over the medium term, as the industry attracts the attention of overseas investors.

Mining will remain an important component of Ghana's economy through the next few years, however, the growth of the industry is being affected by a lack of diversity, with gold mining accounting for about 90% of the country's total mineral exports. An ongoing decline in global prices will therefore pose a major threat to the growth of Ghana's mining sector going forwards, with prices forecast to average USD1,100/USD in 2015 before dropping to USD950/USD by the end of our forecast period. Falling prices will put increased pressure on the profit margins of the country's gold miners, with many firms, including market leader Newmont Mining, moving to cut expenditure in the face of falling revenues.

However, we believe overall mining revenues will be steadied, to a certain extent, by further expansion of the country's bauxite mining sector over the next few years. Long-term growth in global aluminium production will see the industry become increasingly the focus of attention from overseas mining groups, adding to significant recent investment by China's Bosai Minerals Group. April saw a Qatari trade delegation to Ghana announce that business in the country were exploring plans to invest in the country's bauxite mining sector to support aluminium production in the Middle Eastern country. While supply chain issues remain a constraint on production capacity, we expect bauxite output to grow at a steady...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Gold: Headwinds For Gold Miners
9
Government Measures To Increase Difficulties
11
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Ghana 2010-2018)
12
Bauxite: Sector Feels Benefits Of Chinese Investment
12
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (Ghana 2010-2018)
14
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
15
Risk/Reward Ratings
15
Botswana On Top
16
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
17
South Africa: Still Ranking Highly
17
Lower Gold Prices Reduce Rewards
18
Risk/Reward Ratings
20
Rewards
20
Industry Rewards
20
Country Rewards
20
Risks
21
Industry Risks
21
Country Risks
21
Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (Ghana 2010-2018)
22
Regulatory Development
23
Chinese Operations Under Threat
24
Table: Ghana - Political Overview
25
Commodities Forecast
26
Commodity Strategy
26
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer
26
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices
28
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214
29
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed
30
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds
31
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214
32
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks
34
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
36
Competitive Landscape
37
Table: Africa - Financial Metrics
38
Company Profile
39
AngloGold Ashanti
39
Overview
41
Strategy
42
Risks
43
Latest Results
43
Table: AngloGold Ashanti - Key Financial Data
44
Newmont Mining
45
Company Strategy
46
Recent Financial Data
47
Financial Data
48
Table: Newmont Mining - Key Financial Data
48
Address Details
48
Regional Overview
49
Mining - Africa Overview
49
Key Opportunities
49
1
49
2
51
3
52
Key Challenges
53
1
53
2
54
3
55
Table: Africa - Key Mining Regulatory Developments
56
Global Industry Overview
58
Challenges
58
Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals
62
Cause For Optimism
65
Methodology
72
Industry Forecast Methodology
72
Sources
73
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
74
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
76

The Ghana Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Ghana Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Ghana.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Ghana to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Ghana's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ghana.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc