Ghana Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Ghana Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: N ew production at TEN and Sankofa fields , as well as increasin g output from the country's flagship Jubilee field will nearly double Ghana 's oil and gas production by 2020. The country's prospective offshore and the ongoing exploration activities present a further upside risk to our production forecast. However, o u r outlook for Ghana's downstream sector remains bearish due to ageing and inefficient infrastructure , and we expect only minor production additions over the coming decade.

Headline Forecasts (Ghana 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 105.0 109.2 125.6 175.8 193.4 212.7 215.2
Refined products production, 000b/d 2.7 8.9 11.6 15.5 18.6 22.3 23.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 73.0 78.3 80.8 84.2 87.6 91.0 94.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.9
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.7 1.5 1.8 2.4 3.1 3.8 4.4
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 45.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

  • During 2015-2025, we forecast Ghana's oil reserves to decrease by 9.1% from an estimated 700mn bbl to 636mn bbl. Gas reserves will also decline, shrinking from an estimated 22.7bcm in 2015 to 22.5bcm in 2025.

  • We forecast Ghana's crude oil and liquids production to increase by 15% to 125,580b/d in 2016. The output will peak at 215,170b/d in 2020, before declining marginally till the end of our forecast period in 2025.

  • In early August 2016, Ghana's parliament passed a long-debated Petroleum Bill into law. The country's Ministry of Petroleum believes that this will boost foreign investment in Ghana's oil and gas sector.

  • In mid-August 2016, Tullow Oil reported first oil from its Tweneboa-Enyenra-Ntomme (TEN) fields in Tano block. The company expects to ramp up production from TEN to around 80,000b/d until the end of the year.

  • We hold our previous forecast that Ghana will maintain its current refining capacity of 45,000b/d stable across our forecast period to 2025. However, an increase in domestic crude output will lift utilisation rates to nearly 62% by the end of the period. In line with this, refined products production will rise from 8,940b/d in 2015 to 27,860b/d in 2025.

  • Supported by rising domestic production, Ghana's exports of crude oil and liquids will rise from an estimated 100,260b/d in 2015 to a peak of 191,580b/d in 2020. Following the production trend, the exports will contract to 174,700b/d by 2025.

  • Small and inefficient downstream sector will turn Ghana increasingly dependent on refined products imports across our forecast period. The import volumes are expected to increase from around 69,000b/d in 2015 to 89,000b/d in 2025.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Ghana 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Table: Tano Basin Blocks Exploration, 2007-2013
12
Upstream Projects
15
Table: Ghana Upstream Projects
15
Upstream Production - Oil
18
Latest Updates
18
Structural Trends
18
Table: Oil Production (Ghana 2014-2019)
20
Table: Oil Production (Ghana 2020-2025)
21
Upstream Production - Gas
22
Latest Updates
22
Structural Trends
22
Table: Gas Production (Ghana 2014-2019)
24
Table: Gas Production (Ghana 2020-2025)
24
Refining
25
Latest Updates
25
Structural Trends
25
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ghana 2014-2019)
27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ghana 2020-2025)
27
Refined Fuels Consumption
28
Latest Updates
28
Structural Trends
28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ghana 2014-2019)
34
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ghana 2020-2025)
34
Gas Consumption
35
Latest Updates
35
Structural Trends
35
Table: Gas Consumption (Ghana 2014-2019)
36
Table: Gas Consumption (Ghana 2020-2025)
36
Trade - Oil
37
Latest Updates
37
Structural Trends
37
Crude Oil
37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ghana 2014-2020)
39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ghana 2020-2025)
39
Refined Fuels
39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ghana 2014-2019)
41
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ghana 2020-2025)
41
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
42
Latest Updates
42
Structural Trends
42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ghana 2014-2019)
44
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ghana 2020-2025)
44
Industry Risk Reward Index
45
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
45
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
45
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
48
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
48
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
51
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
51
Ghana - Risk/Reward Index
53
Upstream Index
53
Downstream Index
54
Market Overview
55
Ghana Energy Market Overview
55
Regulatory Overview
55
Licensing Regime
56
Table: Ghana Model Petroleum Agreement Main Licensing Terms
56
Fiscal Regime
57
Table: Ghana Model Petroleum Agreement Main Licensing Terms
57
Licensing Rounds
57
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
58
Oil Refineries
58
Table: Ghana Oil Refineries
58
Oil Storage Facilities
58
Table: Ghana Main Oil Storage Facilities
58
Oil Trade Facilities
59
Table: Ghana Main Oil Trade Facilities
59
Competitive Landscape
60
Competitive Landscape Summary
60
Table: Key Players - Ghana Energy Sector
61
Table: Key Upstream Players
61
Table: Key Downstream Player
62
Company Profile
63
Tullow Oil
63
Latest Updates
63
Table: Major Company Upstream Assets in Ghana
64
Table: Key Financial Data
64
GNPC
65
Latest Updates
65
Table: GNPC Major Upstream Assets In Ghana
66
Table: Key Financial Data
66
Regional Overview
67
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil
67
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
75
Glossary
76
Table: Glossary Of Terms
76
Methodology
78
Industry Forecast Methodology
78
Source
80
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
80
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
82
Table: Weighting
83

The Ghana Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Ghana including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Ghana Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ghanaian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Ghana to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ghanaian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ghanaian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ghana.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.