Ghana Oil & Gas Report

Published 04 March 2015

  • 110 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Ghana Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: We hold to our bullish view on the Ghana oil and gas sector, as production from Jubilee, TEN and Sankofa support rising production growth. However, production will remain insufficient to meet the strong growth in consumption, and we forecast deepening import dependence for the country across our 10-year forecast period.

Headline Forecasts (Ghana 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 91.7 102.7 117.1 122.9 172.1 206.5 227.1
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.4 2.3
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.5 0.6 1.3 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.9
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 9.6 14.0 21.0 23.1 25.4 27.9 29.3
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 84.8 91.5 95.2 98.0 100.0 103.0 107.1

The main trends and developments in Ghana's oil and gas sector are:

  • Ghana boasts significant, underexplored acreage offshore. Although our reserves forecasts remain modest, we acknowledge strong upside risk from continued exploration.

  • Due to the moratorium on gas flaring, associated gas production at Jubilee has acted as a major bottleneck on oil output. However, with Atuabo brought online in the fourth quarter of 2014, we forecast strong oil and gas production growth from 2015.

  • Rapid economic growth looks set to support robust oil and gas consumption growth. However, due to limited domestic gas production and low refinery output, we see Ghana increasingly dependent on imports to meet rising domestic demand.

  • The outlook on Ghana's downstream is bearish, due to poor operational efficiencies at the Tema Oil Refinery and the weak commercial viability of proposed upgrade and expansion projects.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Ghana 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Upstream Exploration
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Ghana 2012-2017)
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Ghana 2018-2023)
9
Upstream Projects
12
Table: Ghana Upstream Projects
12
Upstream Production - Oil
13
Table: Oil Production (Ghana 2012-2017)
13
Table: Oil Production (Ghana 2018-2023)
13
Upstream Production - Gas
15
Table: Gas Production (Ghana 2012-2017)
15
Table: Gas Production (Ghana 2018-2023)
15
Refining
17
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ghana 2012-2017)
17
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ghana 2018-2023)
17
Refined Fuels Consumption
20
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ghana 2012-2017)
20
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ghana 2018-2023)
20
Gas Consumption
23
Table: Gas Consumption (Ghana 2012-2017)
23
Table: Gas Consumption (Ghana 2018-2023)
23
Trade - Oil
26
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ghana 2012-2017)
26
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ghana 2018-2023)
26
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ghana 2012-2017)
28
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ghana 2018-2023)
28
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Ghana 2012-2017)
30
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Ghana 2018-2023)
30
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG)
31
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ghana 2012-2017)
31
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ghana 2018-2023)
31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
34
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Riches Lie Underground, While Above-Ground Risks Continue To Loom
37
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
37
A Dimming Outlook for Emergent Producers
37
Angola in the Ascendant
38
Brightening Horizons to the West
39
Mature Producers Continue to Disappoint
39
An Underwhelming Downstream
41
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Ghana - Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Market Overview
43
Ghana Energy Market Overview
43
Overview/State Role
43
Licensing And Regulation
44
Licensing Rounds
45
International Energy Relations
45
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
46
Oil Refineries
46
Table: Downstream Projects
47
Service Stations
48
Oil Terminals/Ports
48
Gas Pipelines
48
Competitive Landscape
50
Competitive Landscape Summary
50
Table: Key Players - Ghana Energy Sector
51
Table: Key Upstream Players
52
Table: Key Downstream Player
52
Company Profile
53
Tullow Oil
53
Kosmos Energy
58
Other Summaries
61
Regional Overview
66
Africa Overview
66
Rising Offshore Interest
66
Unconventionals : New Frontier
69
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil
70
Downstream Blues
72
High-Risk Continent
75
Global Industry Overview
78
Global Energy Market Overview
78
Appendix
84
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
84
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
84
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
85
Africa - Regional Appendix
87
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
87
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
88
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
88
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
89
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
90
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
90
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
91
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
92
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
92
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
93
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
94
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
94
Ghana - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
95
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Ghana 2012-2017)
95
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Ghana 2018-2023)
96
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Ghana 2012-2017)
97
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Ghana 2018-2023)
98
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Ghana 2012-2017)
99
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Ghana 2018-2023)
100
Ghana - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
101
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Ghana 2012-2017)
101
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Ghana 2018-2023)
102
Glossary
103
Table: Glossary Of Terms
103
Methodology
105
Industry Forecast Methodology
105
Source
107
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
107
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
109
Table: Weighting
110

The Ghana Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Ghana including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Ghana Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ghanaian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Ghana to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ghanaian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ghanaian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ghana.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc