Ghana Oil & Gas Report

Published 10 June 2015

  • 113 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Ghana Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: We hold a bullish view on Ghana's oil and gas sector, as production from Jubilee, TEN and Sankofa ramps up in the front end of our forecast period. However, strong growth in consumption will outpace production, driving a widening supply demand deficit in the country. The country holds attractive underexplored acreage, although a maritime boundary dispute and continued regulatory uncertainty may dull drilling activity over the coming years.

Headline Forecasts (Ghana 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estiate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 97.9 109.7 125.0 131.3 183.8 220.5 242.6
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 9.6 14.0 21.0 23.1 25.4 27.9 29.3
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 84.8 91.5 95.2 98.0 100.0 103.0 107.1
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.4 2.3
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.5 0.6 1.3 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.9

The main trends and developments in Ghana's oil and gas sector are:

  • Ghana boasts significant, underexplored acreage offshore. Although our reserves forecasts remain modest, we acknowledge strong upside risk from continued exploration. Exploration may be constrained over the next three to four years, as a maritime boundary dispute with Cote d'Ivoire and delays passing the new petroleum law weigh on activity. Due to the moratorium on gas flaring, associated gas production at Jubilee has acted as a major bottleneck on oil output. However, with Atuabo brought online in the fourth quarter of 2014, we forecast strong oil and gas production growth from 2015.

  • Rapid economic growth looks set to support robust oil and gas consumption growth. However, due to limited domestic gas production and low refinery output, we see Ghana increasingly dependent on imports to meet rising domestic...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Ghana 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Upstream Exploration
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Ghana 2013-2018)
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Ghana 2019-2024)
9
Table: Tano Basin Blocks Exploration, 2007-2013
10
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Ghana Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
14
Table: Oil Production (Ghana 2013-2018)
14
Table: Oil Production (Ghana 2019-2024)
14
Upstream Production - Gas
17
Table: Gas Production (Ghana 2013-2018)
17
Table: Gas Production (Ghana 2019-2024)
17
Refining
20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ghana 2019-2024)
20
Refined Fuels Consumption
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ghana 2013-2018)
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ghana 2019-2024)
23
Table: Percentage Price Change Ex-Pump
25
Gas Consumption
28
Table: Gas Consumption (Ghana 2013-2018)
28
Table: Gas Consumption (Ghana 2019-2024)
28
Trade - Oil
31
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ghana 2013-2018)
31
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ghana 2019-2024)
31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ghana 2013-2018)
33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ghana 2019-2024)
33
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Ghana 2013-2018)
35
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Ghana 2019-2024)
35
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
36
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ghana 2013-2018)
36
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ghana 2019-2024)
36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
40
Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
40
Table: BMI's Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
41
Above-Ground Risks Dampen Upstream Outlook
42
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
42
Underperformance Continues Among African Majors
43
Emergent Markets Stumble At Regulatory Hurdles
44
Established Producers On The Downturn
45
An Underwhelming Downstream
45
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
45
Ghana - Risk/Reward Index
48
Market Overview
49
Ghana Energy Market Overview
49
Overview/State Role
49
Licensing And Regulation
50
Licensing Rounds
51
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
51
Oil Refineries
51
Oil Terminals/Ports
51
Gas Pipelines
52
Competitive Landscape
53
Competitive Landscape Summary
53
Table: Key Players - Ghana Energy Sector
54
Table: Key Upstream Players
55
Table: Key Downstream Player
55
Company Profile
56
Tullow Oil
56
Kosmos Energy
61
Other Summaries
65
Regional Overview
70
Africa Oil & Gas Regional Overview
70
West Africa - Exploration Slowdown
70
Unconventionals: Window Of Opportunity Closing
72
East Africa: Resource Development Under Strain
74
High-Risk Continent
76
Downstream Blues
78
Global Industry Overview
80
Oil Price Outlook
80
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
80
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
81
Appendix
88
Africa - Regional Appendix
88
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
88
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
89
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
89
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
90
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
93
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
93
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
94
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
95
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
96
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
97
Ghana - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
98
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Ghana 2013-2018)
98
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Ghana 2019-2024)
98
Ghana - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
99
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Ghana 2013-2018)
99
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Ghana 2019-2024)
100
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Ghana 2013-2018)
101
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Ghana 2019-2024)
103
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Ghana 2013-2018)
104
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Ghana 2019-2024)
105
Glossary
106
Table: Glossary Of Terms
106
Methodology
108
Industry Forecast Methodology
108
Source
110
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
110
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
112
Table: Weighting
113

The Ghana Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Ghana including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Ghana Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ghanaian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Ghana to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ghanaian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ghanaian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ghana.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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