BMI View: Currently, Ghana is a small hydrocarbons producer, but new output from TEN and Sankofa fields , as well as increasin g production from the country's flagship Jubilee field , will nearly double Ghana 's oil and gas production by 2020. Further upside potential comes from Ghana ' s active exploration scene offshore. We hold our relatively bearish outlook for the country's downstream sector due to ageing infrastructure and limited production additions over the coming decade.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||105.0||109.2||125.6||175.8||193.4||212.7||215.2|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||2.7||8.9||11.6||15.5||18.6||22.3||23.6|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||73.0||78.3||80.8||84.2||87.6||91.0||94.6|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||0.6||1.8||1.8||1.9||2.0||2.2||2.9|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||0.7||1.5||1.8||2.4||3.1||3.8||4.4|
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
Ghana's oil reserves are forecast to contract from 660,000mn bbl in 2015 to 596,000mn bbl in 2025. The country's gas reserves will remain small, fluctuating between 20-30bcm across our forecast period to 2025.
Supported by new production from Tweneboa-Enyenra-Ntomme (TEN) fields in Tano block, Ghana's crude oil and liquids production will increase by 15% to 125,580b/d in 2016. We hold our view that the country's oil output will peak at 215,170b/d in 2020, before declining marginally till the end of our forecast period in 2025.
New gas production from TEN fields will also lift Ghana's gas output to 1.9bcm by 2017. Additional volumes from Sankofa fields, expected to come online in 2018, will raise production to a peak of 3.8bcm in 2021, before gradually declining until 2025.
In September 2016, the Ghanaian government received a financial guarantee of USD700mn from the World Bank for the Sankofa Gye Nyame Oil and Gas Project located 60km offshore Takoradi in the Western region.
We hold our last quarter's forecast that Ghana's refined products consumption will rise by 3.3% (year-on-year) to 80,810b/d in 2016. Consumption growth will average 4.2% per annum during 2016-2025, with the pace picking up in the second half of our forecast period.
Rising oil production and limited refining capacity will substantially lift Ghana's exports of crude oil over the coming decade. From an estimated 100,260b/d in 2015, crude oil exports will rise to a peak of 191,580b/d in 2020, followed by marginal declines until the end of our forecast period in 2025.
Small and inefficient downstream sector will turn Ghana increasingly dependent on refined products. We hold our view that the import volumes will increase from around 69,300b/d in 2015 to 89,800b/d in 2025.
Ghana is set to become a net importer of natural gas already in 2016. Import volumes will remain very small over the short term, but are set to reach 1.5bcm in 2020 and 2.5bcm in 2025.
The Ghana Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Ghana including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Ghana Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ghanaian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Ghana to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ghanaian oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Ghanaian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ghana.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.