BMI View: With the start up of new production at TEN and Sankofa fields , as well as increasin g output from the country's flagship Jubilee field, we expect Ghana to double its crude and gas production over the next five years. We note an upside risk to our projections arising from the ongoing exploration activities over the medium term, but the country's output levels have been suffering from recurring technical issues at the production facilities. Our outlook for Ghana's downstream sector is more subdued due to ageing and inefficient infrastructure , and we expect only minor production additions over the coming decade.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||105.0||109.2||114.7||149.1||186.3||214.3||216.7|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||2.7||9.0||11.7||15.5||18.6||22.4||23.7|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||73.0||78.3||80.9||84.3||87.7||91.0||94.7|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||0.5||1.2||1.5||1.5||1.4||1.8||2.6|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||0.7||1.5||2.3||3.0||3.8||4.8||5.5|
The main trends and developments in Ghana's oil and gas sector are:
Between 2015 and 2025, we forecast Ghana's oil reserves to decrease by 7.4% from an estimated 700 million barrels (mn bbl) to 648mn bbl. However, Ghana boasts significant, underexplored acreage offshore and we acknowledge a strong upside risk from continued exploration.
Ghana's crude oil and liquids production stood at an estimated 109,200b/d in 2015 and we forecast this figure to nearly double to 216,720b/d by the end of 2020. However, recurring technical issues at the floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel could lower the expected output from the country's key producing Jubilee field.
We expect Ghana's current refining capacity to remain stable at 45,000b/d over the coming decade. In 2015, Ghana produced just 9,000b/d of refined fuels due to outages and low utilisation rates at the TOR. We anticipate the output to increase gradually in the next 10 years due to ongoing maintenance and upgrades at the facility.
In 2015, estimated refined products consumption in Ghana stood at 78,320b/d, marking a 7.3% y-o-y increase. Over the coming decade, we forecast the consumption to increase by an average of 4.2% per annum, driven mostly by greater demand in diesel and motor gasoline.
Despite technical issues at the Ataubo gas processing facility, Ghana's gas production increased notably in 2015, standing at an estimated 1.2bcm. We maintain our longer-term gas production forecast and expect the output to peak at 3.4bcm in 2022, followed by marginal declines until the end of our review period.
Ghana's 2015 gas consumption stood at just 1.5bcm. We forecast this figure to reach 5.5bcm by 2020 and 7.7bcm by 2025. The consumption will driven by Ghana's power sector, plans to develop the country's fertiliser industry, as well as new gas import infrastructure.
The Ghana Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Ghana including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Ghana Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ghanaian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Ghana to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ghanaian oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Ghanaian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ghana.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.