Greece Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
×

Sign up to download the Greece Country Risk Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Greece Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • A return to marginal positive real GDP growth rates in 2016 will be followed by years of sluggish growth.

  • A slight improvement in 2016 will mainly be driven by the removal of capital controls and a slight uptick in consumer confidence.

  • These growth rates will be insufficient to help Greek households and firms recover from the huge destruction of wealth the country has endured during its depression.

  • One of the few bright spots for Greece is it current account, which is likely to remain in surplus over the coming years, having been at a deficit of over 10% of GDP only a few years ago.

  • Consumer price index (CPI) growth will remain in positive territory, due to a slight recovery in domestic demand, the ongoing impact of VAT hikes, and supply-side issues for the food sector.

  • The ruling Syriza administration will struggle to maintain popular support while implementing strict bailout fiscal consolidation plans and the number of migrants likely to arrive again in Greece in 2016.

Major Forecast Changes

  • We have revised up our estimate for real GDP growth to arrive at -0.3% in 2015, from a previous -1.6% forecast. This is due to the fact that coincident and lagging indicators showed the impact of political uncertainty and the imposition of capital controls were not as severe as we had previously expected.

Key Risks

  • Given Syriza's slim parliamentary majority, we do not rule out parliament voting against bailout conditions at some point. Depending on the degree of the rupture, such an outcome could lead to a collapse in the Syriza government. This would set Greece on a course for its third general election in under two years, which would be negative from an investment perspective.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Greece 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
f = BMI forecasts. Source: National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 0.7 -0.3 0.2 1.6
Nominal GDP, EURbn 177.6 175.5 177.1 182.2
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop -2.6 0.4 0.9 1.3
Exchange rate EUR/USD, eop 0.83 0.95 0.91 0.87
Budget balance, % of GDP -3.6 -3.7 -3.5 -3.0
Current account balance, % of GDP 0.9 2.0 1.6 1.3
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Economy Healthcheck: Hard To See Any Sustainable Growth Drivers
8
TABLE: BMI ECONOMIC DASHBOARD
9
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
11
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
11
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
11
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
11
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
12
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
12
External Trade And Investment Outlook
13
Surpluses Good For Stability
13
Outlook On External Position
15
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
15
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS AND DESTINATIONS IN 2014
16
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS AND SOURCES 2014
16
Monetary Policy
17
Inflation Here To Stay, Just
17
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
19
The Greek Economy To 2025
19
Another Lost Decade Ahead
19
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
21
SWOT Analysis
21
BMI Political Risk Index
21
Domestic Politics
22
Syriza Facing Growing Challenges
22
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
22
Regional Politics
25
EU-Greece Tensions Another Blow To Schengen Zone
25
Long-Term Political Outlook
26
A Decade Of Austerity And Instability
26
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
29
SWOT Analysis
29
Operational Risk Index
29
Operational Risk
30
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LABOUR MARKET RISK
30
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LOGISTICS RISK
34
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - CRIME AND SECURITY RISK
36
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK
39
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
41
Global Macro Outlook
41
Tail Risks Mounting Amid Sub-Par Growth
41
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
41
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
42
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, 2015 AND 2016 (%)
42
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
43
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
45

Assess your risk exposure in Greece with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Greece with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report