Greece Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

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  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Greece Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Greece's creditors have delayed offering Greece any substantial concessions on bailout conditions, due to domestic political concerns.

  • Without offering significant debt relief, Greece's creditors have ensured that Greece's economy will remain in the doldrums and that the country will need further bailouts by the time its current deal expires in 2018.

  • Partially as a result of this, we expect Greece's economy to remain stuck in the doldrums over the next few years.

  • This view is underpinned by severe structural issues facing the country, namely an unsustainable government debt load, a dire demographic profile, and Greece's scant progress improving productivity over the past few years.

  • Inflationary pressures will gradually build up in Greece towards end-2016, amidst rising energy prices and a gradual improvement in domestic economic conditions.

  • Greece will run current account surpluses for the next few years, reducing previously systemic risks posed to macroeconomic stability from its large external imbalances.

Key Risks

  • We do not rule out another debt crisis re-emerging in Greece in the next few years, before Greece completes its bailout in 2018.

  • Several more difficult years economically and declining support in the polls may prompt to the ruling Syriza party to try and rip up the terms of the bailout once again, in a last ditch attempt to retain popular support and improve the country's economic outlook.

  • Such an outcome would undoubtedly lead to growing fears of a potential 'Grexit', which would be net negative for Greece from a financial and political stability perspective.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Greece 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
f = BMI forecasts. Source: National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, EURbn 177.6 176.0 179.3 184.0
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 0.7 -0.2 0.2 1.6
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop -2.6 0.4 1.0 1.3
Exchange rate EUR/USD, eop 0.82 0.92 0.91 0.87
Budget balance, % of GDP -3.7 -7.3 -3.6 -2.6
Current account balance, % of GDP -2.1 -0.1 1.1 0.9
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
No End In Sight To Depression
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
10
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
11
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
11
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
12
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
12
External Trade And Investment Outlook
12
C/A Surpluses Nothing To Cheer About
12
Outlook On External Position
14
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
14
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS 2015
15
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS 2015
15
Monetary Policy
16
2
16
Monetary Policy Framework
18
TABLE: BMI ASSESSMENT OF 20 LARGEST BONDS ELIGIBLE FOR ECB CORPORATE SECTOR PURCHASE PROGRAMME (SECONDARY
TABLE: BMI ASSESSMENT OF 20 LARGEST BONDS ELIGIBLE FOR ECB CORPORATE SECTOR PURCHASE PROGRAMME (SECONDARY
MARKET)
18
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
23
The Greek Economy To 2025
23
Another Lost Decade Ahead
23
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
23
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
25
SWOT Analysis
25
BMI Political Risk Index
25
Domestic Politics
26
Another Fudge Deal Increases Risk Of Further Bailouts And 'Grexit'
26
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
26
Long-Term Political Outlook
29
A Decade Of Austerity And Instability
29
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
33
SWOT Analysis
33
Operational Risk Index
33
Operational Risk
34
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LABOUR MARKET RISK
34
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LOGISTICS RISK
38
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - CRIME AND SECURITY RISK
41
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK
43
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
45
Global Macro Outlook
45
Summer Of Risk
45
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
45
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
46
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
47
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
49

Assess your risk exposure in Greece with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Greece with confidence.

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