BMI View: Defence expenditure by Greece will remain constrained by adverse economic conditions over the next several years. While dramatic cuts to overall military spending levels are unlikely amid persistent security challenges, any growth will be highly limited, and most new procurement plans will be put on hold given large operational and personnel expenses. Defence import levels will be low on a historical comparison, while exports are set to grow, as local manufacturers seek to make up for weakened domestic demand for their products by expanding in international markets.
|Source: National sources, NATO, BMI|
|Defence expenditure, USDmn||4,314||4,315||4,283||4,299||5,226|
|Defence expenditure, USD, % y-o-y||-8.8||0.0||-0.7||0.4||-1.6|
|Defence expenditure, % of GDP||2.2||2.2||2.2||2.2||2.2|
The government's initial proposed budget for 2017 did not include large-scale defence spending cuts. While the budget has yet to be approved, it broadly indicates that Athens is seeking to maintain defence expenditure near current levels given its still-challenging security environment.
Lockheed Martin is performing mid-life upgrades on P-3B Orion maritime patrol aircraft jointly owned by the Greek navy and air force, under a USD142mn contract awarded in February 2016.
The Hellenic Ministry of National Defence made the down payment for the procurement of 10 ex-US Army Boeing CH-47D Chinook helicopters at end-2015.
In June 2016, the Greek air force issued a request for information (RfI) for a new trainer aircraft requirement.
Turkey and the EU signed a deal in mid-2016 to curb the flow of refugees into Greece via the Turkish coastline, which resulted in a substantial decline in overall arrival numbers from June onwards.
Over recent quarters, we have seen growing collaboration between Greek and Israeli defence players, while Athens have been in talks with both Indian and Indonesian authorities regarding the future potential for enhanced defence industry cooperation.
In July 2016, Defence Minister Panos Kammenos announced Greece and Russia would enter a joint partnership for the local manufacturing of Kalashnikov rifles; though the deal is apparently still dependent on the lifting of European sanctions on the latter.
In September 2016, Intracom Defense Electronics won a EUR1.3mn contract from the NATO Support and Procurement Agency for delivery of Wideband Intercom & Secure Packet Radio (WiSPR) intercommunication systems, to be fitted onto armoured vehicles of the Lithuanian army. In June, Krauss Maffei Wegmann placed a EUR4.1mn order for WiSPR systems for the German Army's PzH2000 retrofit programme.
Defence Industry Risk Reward Index
With an overall score of 47, we place Greece 10th regionally in our Defence Risk/Reward Index, among 25 European countries. With a skilled workforce, and status as a manufacturer of relatively high-quality defence products, Greece does offer some rewards to counter its relatively high-risk environment, both in country and industry terms. That said, the economic crisis has had an adverse impact on the domestic defence industry, as investment and domestic orders have dramatically declined.
The Greece Defence & Security Report features BMI Research's independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Greece Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Greek defence and security industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Greece to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Greek defence and security market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
Global and Regional Political Outlooks
A strategic overview of the world’s major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict, or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world’s ‘wild card’ low-probability high-impact risks.
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Defence Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and USDbn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure per capita (USD); defence budget (local currency and USDbn).
- Armed Forces (to 2012): Manpower available for military service, manpower fit for militaryservice, army personnel, navy personnel,air force personnel, total armed forces, (‘000) (% population).
- Arms Trade: Arms and ammunition exports and imports (USDmn); bombs, grenades and missiles exports and imports (USDmn); revolver and pistol exports and imports (USDmn); weapons excluding guns and swords exports and imports (USDmn).
Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI’s heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s proprietary Security Risk Indices provide investors with a reliable and country-comparable guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst’s latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our Country Risk expertise, we assess the state’s vulnerability to a serious, or prolonged, terrorist campaign.
Armed Forces Spending/ Expenditure
The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries. The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting the Americas, along with potential risks in the coming year.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Defence & Security Market reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.