Greece Defence & Security Report

Published 04 December 2014

  • 73 pages
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$1,295.00
Greece Defence & Security Report

BMI View:   The report discusses Greece's strategic situation, including its fractious relationship with Turkey, its relations with NATO and other European nations, and its global relations and participation in military operations around the world. In terms of procurement, the report examines Greece's current defence programmes, planned acquisitions and future procurement aspirations in light of the country's economic crisis.

BMI expects Greece to spend USD6bn on defence in 2014. On average, between 2011 and 2013, Greece spent USD6.2bn annually on defence. Spending has progressively declined as the Greek economy has contracted and the government has sought to bring public spending under control. We expect Greece to spend less on defence between 2015 and 2019, spending an average of USD5.5bn. By 2019 we expect Greece to be spending USD5.6bn on defence.

Consistently, Greece spent around 2.5% of its GDP annually on defence between 2011 and 2013. We expect this to be the case in 2014 and for the remainder of the forecast period up to and including 2019.

The size of Greece's defence trade balance has fluctuated in recent years. On average, between 2011 and 2013, the country maintained a defence trade surplus of USD100,000. For the remainder of the forecast period, we expect Greece's defence trade surplus to be worth USD5.9mn annually.

We have given Greece an overall security risk index of 69 for Q115. On average, the country has scored an overall security risk index of 70 for the period January 2007 up to Q115. The country faces a moderate risk of becoming involved in a major interstate conflict. Similarly, it also faces moderate risks of experiencing terrorist and major criminal activities.

It was reported in early October 2014 that Greece is considering the reactivation of part of its Lockheed Martin P-3B Orion maritime patrol aircraft fleet. In terms of numbers, the programme could see the overhaul of five aircraft and the purchase of an additional two P-3Bs.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Defence SWOT
8
Security SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Defence Expenditure
13
Table: Defence Expenditure (Greece 2011-2018)
14
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (Greece 2011-2018)
15
Armed Forces
15
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Greece 2004-2011)
16
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated) (Greece 2011-2018)
17
Defence Trade
17
Table: Defence Trade Balance (USDmn) (Greece 2011-2018)
17
Table: Defence Exports (USDmn) (Greece 2011-2018)
19
Table: Defence Imports (USDmn) (Greece 2011-2018)
19
Macroeconomic Forecasts
20
Economic Analysis
20
Table: Greece - Economic Activity
26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
Europe Security Risk Index
27
Table: Europe Regional Security Risk Index
27
Table: Europe State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
28
Greece Security Risk Index
29
Market Overview
31
Greece Defence Market Overview
31
Armed Forces
31
International Deployments And Joint Exercises
40
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
40
Domestic Defence Industry
40
Greece Security Overview
41
Domestic Threats
41
A Decade Of Austerity And Instability
43
Regional Threats
47
International Threats
49
Company Profile
50
Hellenic Defence Systems
50
Intracom Defense Electronics
52
Regional Overview
54
Europe Security Overview
54
Global Industry Overview
64
Political Risk Analysis
64
Methodology
70
Industry Forecast Methodology
70
Sector-Specific Methodology
71
Sources
72
Security Risk Index Methodology
72
Table: Indicators And Weighting
73

The Greece Defence & Security Report features BMI Research's independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Greece Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Greek defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Greece to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Greek defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world’s major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict, or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world’s ‘wild card’ low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Defence Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and USDbn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure per capita (USD); defence budget (local currency and USDbn).
  • Armed Forces (to 2012): Manpower available for military service, manpower fit for militaryservice, army personnel, navy personnel,air force personnel, total armed forces, (‘000) (% population).
  • Arms Trade: Arms and ammunition exports and imports (USDmn); bombs, grenades and missiles exports and imports (USDmn); revolver and pistol exports and imports (USDmn); weapons excluding guns and swords exports and imports (USDmn).

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI’s heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI’s proprietary Security Risk Indices provide investors with a reliable and country-comparable guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst’s latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our Country Risk expertise, we assess the state’s vulnerability to a serious, or prolonged, terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/ Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Competitive Landscape

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries. The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting the Americas, along with potential risks in the coming year.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Defence & Security Market reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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