BMI View: A poor record of implementing new legislation and the enduring public scepticism of generic medicines indicate that the country's push to increase the prescription of generic medicines to 60% by December 2016 will fail to produce the desired generic medicine uptake in the face of austerity. The government's focus on increasing the consumption of generic medicines alongside persistent debt problems within the health system highlights Greece as a challenging market for innovative drugmakers.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR4.95bn (USD5.44bn) in 2015 to EUR4.67bn (USD5.00bn) in 2015, -5.5% in local currency terms and -8.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from Q415 due to improved macroeconomic outlook .
Healthcare: EUR15.38bn (USD16.92bn) in 2015 to EUR15.22bn (USD16.29bn) in 2016, -1.0% in local currency terms and -3.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q415.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||6.640||5.440||4.998||5.213||5.545||5.906||6.050|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||2.79||2.86||2.68||2.64||2.62||2.59||2.58|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||30.6||32.2||30.7||30.8||30.9||31.1||31.2|
|Health spending, USDbn||21.665||16.916||16.286||16.926||17.928||19.001||19.361|
In BMI's Q216 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRIs) Greece is ranked fourth out of the 20 markets in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) matrix with an improved score of 59.0 compared with the previous quarter (55.8). Greece continues to experience a high level of financial and political uncertainty, as the new government faces mounting pressure to balance the increasingly urgent demands of both its international creditors and the Greek electorate. However, the risk of a eurozone exit has receded for the time being, resulting in an improved assessment of the country's Rewards rating within the RRI.
The State Budget for 2016 outlined an initiative to promote of the use of generic medicines: up to 50% by December 2015 and to 60% by December 2016. This is a revision of a previous target of 40%, set only in November 2015.
In January 2016, it was reported that the debts owed by the Greek national health insurer to pharmaceutical companies has almost doubled since 2014, from EUR790mn to in excess of EUR1.3bn.
BMI Economic View
Economic activity will remain well below the level needed for Greece to return to anywhere close to its potential output. A lack of sustainable growth drivers, fiscal deficit reduction and rising political risk will keep Greece anchored to a painfully sluggish economic growth trajectory over the coming years.
BMI Political View
Support for the ruling Syriza-led coalition will decline in 2016, as the government implements painful bailout conditions and struggles to cope with migrant arrivals, and as disaffected voters return to New Democracy.
The Greece Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Greece Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Greece pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Greece, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Greek pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Greek pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Greece.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.