BMI View: The government's focus on increasing the consumption of generic medicines and poor financial administration highlights Greece as a challenging market for innovative drugmakers. Despite an urgent need to reduce pharmaceutical and healthcare spending, enduring public scepticism of generic medicines will prevent targeted reduction in patented drug usage. Moreover, dissatisfaction among the public and professionals over staff shortages, poor wages and pension reform within the healthcare sector, coupled with corruption issues and the ongoing migrant influx, signify an unhealthy outlook.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR4.95bn (USD5.48bn) in 2015 to EUR5.00bn (USD5.35bn) in 2015, 1.0% in local currency terms and -2.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast upgraded from previous quarter.
Healthcare: EUR13.90bn (USD15.41bn) in 2015 to EUR14.02bn (USD15.00bn) in 2016, 0.9% in local currency terms and -2.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast upgraded from previous quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National Organization for Medicines (EOF), Hellenic Association of Pharmaceutical Companies (SFEE), The Association of the European Self-Medication Industry (AESGP), World Health Organization, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||6.570||5.480||5.350||5.580||6.960||6.380||6.560|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||2.79||2.81||279||2.76||2.74||2.72||2.72|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||34.5||35.6||36.6||35.2||34.5||34.0||33.5|
|Health spending, USDbn||19.040||15.410||15.000||15.880||17.260||18.760||19.590|
In BMI's Q416 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) Greece is ranked third out of the 20 markets in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) matrix with a significantly increased score of 61.8 compared with the previous quarter (57.0). This increase is a result of the country's economy returning to modest growth following a large recession in 2015. However, Greece continues to experience a high level of financial and political uncertainty as the new government faces mounting pressure to balance the increasingly urgent demands of both its international creditors in addition to the Greek electorate. The Greek pharmaceutical market has been characterised of late by mandated price reductions, state intervention in the trade of pharmaceutical goods, regressive revenue taxes, unpaid debts and drug shortages. Moreover, the government has increasingly shifted some of the burden of healthcare spending onto its citizens, requiring increasing co-payments for expensive drugs.
In July 2016, the Ministry of Health (MoH) began the payment of overdue hospital medicine debts to suppliers, starting with a EUR511mn (USD567mn) grant. According to the MoH, EUR1.1bn (USD1.22bn) will be paid off by the end of 2016.
The Southern Europe countries of Greece, Cyprus, Portugal, Italy and Malta announced in July 2016 that they had set up a technical committee to exchange expertise with respect to health technology assessment (HTA), medicine pricing and negotiation with the pharmaceutical industry.
In June 2016, the Greek Ministry of Health met representatives of WHO to discuss the design implementation of healthcare reforms.
BMI Economic View
Greece's economic downturn has many more years to run. A terrible demographic outlook, an unsustainable government debt load, and a deteriorating productivity profile will keep growth anchored to a painfully low trajectory in the coming years.
BMI Political View
Greece's creditors have delayed offering the country any substantial concessions on bailout conditions, due to domestic political concerns. Without offering significant debt relief, Greece's creditors have ensured that its economy will remain in the doldrums and that the country will need further bailouts by the time its current deal expires in 2018. The risk of 'Grexit' over the next five years has been substantially increased by the deal being agreed.
The Greece Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Greece Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Greece pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Greece, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Greek pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Greek pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Greece.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.