BMI View: Drugmakers will continue to face challenges in Greece due to the country's poor governance of the pharmaceutical market. The brunt of this has been felt by patients, with widespread medicine shortages, and also by pharmaceutical firms, with rising healthcare provider debts, aggressive medicine pricing policies and challenging pharmaceutical expenditure policies. We maintain our view that in the short- to medium-term, the Greek pharmaceutical market will remain an unattractive investment proposition.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR4.95bn (USD5.48bn) in 2015 to EUR4.98bn (USD5.33bn) in 2015, 0.7% in local currency terms and -2.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast downgraded from previous quarter.
Healthcare: EUR13.88bn (USD15.40bn) in 2015 to EUR14.01bn (USD14.99bn) in 2016, 0.9% in local currency terms and -2.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from previous quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National Organization for Medicines (EOF), Hellenic Association of Pharmaceutical Companies (SFEE), The Association of the European Self-Medication Industry (AESGP), World Health Organization, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||6.574||5.485||5.330||5.305||5.255||5.276||5.419|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||2.79||2.81||2.80||2.78||2.76||2.74||2.73|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||34.5||35.6||35.6||35.1||34.4||33.9||33.3|
|Health spending, USDbn||19.044||15.397||14.986||15.136||15.266||15.579||16.253|
In BMI's Q117 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) Greece is ranked second out of the 21 markets in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) matrix despite a significantly reduced score of 60.6 compared with the previous quarter (61.8). This decrease is a result of a downgrade of our USD/EUR exchange rate forecast by BMI's Country Risk team, resulting in a significantly lower Sector Value Growth metric score (measured in USD). Greece's score is bolstered by region-leading per capita expenditure on medicines and an attractive demographic profile; however, the country's regulatory environment poses significant risks.
Additional austerity measures passed in October 2016 by the government in order to release further bailout funds include a universal 6.95% levy on gross income for public healthcare.
Doctors, nurses and other health sector employees protested in October 2016 over the severe impact of the country's austerity measures on healthcare.
As of October 2016, restrictions on prescriptions will be enforced in order to prevent over-prescriptions by doctors.
BMI Economic View
After another contraction of real GDP in 2016, Greece will remain stuck in a low growth trajectory in the coming years as fiscal consolidation demands further internal devaluation and tax hikes. Renewed tensions between Greece and its creditors will keep political and economic uncertainty elevated, stifling investment. Real GDP growth is forecast 1.0% and 1.4% in 2017 and 2018 respectively.
BMI Political View
Greece will fail to achieve a number of the fiscal and structural reforms laid out in the third bailout programme, and the public debt load will remain unsustainable over the coming years. The ruling Syriza-led coalition will continue losing support as disillusioned voters move to opposition parties .
The Greece Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Greece Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Greece pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Greece, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Greek pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Greek pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Greece.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.