BMI View: After a decade of impressive growth, the Greek non-hydro renewables industry came nearly to a standstill in 2014 and 2015, largely on account of regulatory changes introduced under the New Deal in mid-2014 as well as persisting economic and political challenges. While several recent project announcements highlight the industry's potential, we believe Greece's non-hydro renewables expansion will remain anaemic over the coming decade.
|e/f = BMI forecast. Source: EIA, LAGIE, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||9.085||9.189||9.252||9.297||9.336||9.393||9.425||9.459||9.482||9.516||9.541|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||2.995||1.154||0.676||0.490||0.419||0.610||0.347||0.354||0.249||0.353||0.262|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||4,611.8||4,710.3||4,726.5||4,744.7||4,760.4||4,794.0||4,808.9||4,823.6||4,831.9||4,852.2||4,866.0|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||2.9||2.1||0.3||0.4||0.3||0.7||0.3||0.3||0.2||0.4||0.3|
Latest Updates a nd Structural Trends
Growth in Greece's non-hydro renewables sector continued to decelerate in 2015, recording 2.1% expansion in terms of capacity and 1.2% growth in terms of generation. Total sector's generation reached 9.19 Terawatt hours (TWh) and capacity was estimated at 4,710 megawatts (MW).
We hold our pessimistic outlook for the country's non-hydro renewables expansion over the coming decade. Between 2015 and 2024, we forecast the sector's generation to increase by 3.8% to 9.54TWh, while the capacity is set to grow by 3.3% to 4866MW.
We have kept our previous forecast and do not expect non-hydro renewables to expand its share in Greece's overall power mix. By the end of our review period in 2024, we forecast non-hydro renewables capacity to account for 18% of the total capacity (down from 18.5% in 2015), while the sector's contribution to the total generation is expected to remain at the current level - 15.3%.
The Greece Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Greece. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Greece, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Greece, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Greece Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Greece renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Greece to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Greece renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Greece, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.