BMI View: After a few years of impressive growth, the Greek non-hydro renewables industry experienced a sharp slowdown in 2014, largely on account of regulatory changes, introduced under the New Deal in mid-2014. While several recent project announcements highlight industry potential, the regulatory challenge s will continue hindering future expansion .
Measures to address the deficit of the country's power regulator LAGIE's deficit (which funds renewable energy), under the New Deal, introduced in April 2014, included reduction of FiTs, most steeply for solar photovoltaic (PV) plants, an increase to the renewables levy charged to all consumers (residential, commercial and industrial) and caps to annual installations of new renewables capacity. We view this as the largest shake-up and restructuring of the Greek renewables sector to date.
In light of these regulatory changes, and the more challenging conditions for renewable energy developers, we expect to see a marked slowdown in investment in the non-hydro renewables industry. Consequently, we anticipate muted annual average growth rates of 5.3% and 3.4% in non-hydro renewables capacity and generation respectively between 2015 and 2024 as investors remain wary of the market.
Despite rapid expansion in over the past decade, we expect a slowdown in the wind power segment to be especially pronounced - with capacity growth averaging just 0.4% (y-o-y) between 2015 and 2024. Our outlook for growth in solar capacity is more positive and we forecast an annual average expansion of 9.5% over the same period.
Key Trends And Developments
Greek utility Terna Energy has estimated the total investment for its 73.2MW wind plant on the St George Island in Greece at EUR150mn (USD177mn). Terna entered the project's final stage and set an objective to complete the facility by end-2015.
As of January 1 2015, the Greek Energy Regulatory Authority (RAE) announced about renewables levy increase for residential, commercial...
The Greece Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Greece. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Greece, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Greece, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Greece Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Greece renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Greece to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Greece renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Greece, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.