BMI View: The growth outlook for Greece's beleaguered renewable energy sector remains extremely weak. A lack of public spending capacity brought on by several years of non-existent economic growth combined with a poor private investment environment mean there are very few projects in the pipeline and as a result we forecast only minimal gains in non-hydropower renewables capacit y and generation over the forecast period through to 2025.
|e/f = BMI estimate/foreacst. Source: National Sources, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||8.200||8.240||8.270||8.290||8.360||8.380||8.410|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||5.130||0.460||0.360||0.330||0.770||0.290||0.290|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||4,269.6||4,283.8||4,289.8||4,303.7||4,334.7||4,348.0||4,361.1|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||3.1||0.3||0.1||0.3||0.7||0.3||0.3|
Latest Updates and Structural Trends
We have updated our figures this quarter to reflect revised industry data, while maintaining our forecast growth trends. In 2016 we forecast a minor gain in total non-hydropower generation of 0.46% to 8.24TWh, with wider generation in the country expected to fall as demand is constricted.
Over the remainder of the forecast period growth will remain minimal, with total non-hydropower renewables generation increasing by just 0.32% annually between 2017 and 2025 to reach 8.48TWh by the end of the current forecast period.
Some wind power projects are making progress. German manufacturer Nordex announced in July 2016 it had been awarded a contract to provide a total of 10 turbines to two sites (at Mougoulios and Plagia Psiloma) with the projects due to be completed in early 2017.
Regulatory uncertainty surrounding Renewable Energy Sources (RES) persists. An EU directive states that RES institutional frameworks must be tender-based from 1 January 2017; however, Greece is expected to request a six-month delay for wind power projects from the European Commission which would likely push back tender-based projects into 2018.
The Greece Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Greece. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Greece, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Greece, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Greece Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Greece renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Greece to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Greece renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Greece, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.