BMI View: Although clarity in the regulatory environment is gradually improving, the Greek renewables sector continues to present potential investors with numerous challenges. Financing options are few and far between due to ongoing government austerity measures and the reforms required by bailout conditions and while some regional funding will drive forward new developments the overall project pipeline in the renewables sector remains anomic. Longer term growth potential is substantial, but until consumption growth in the market recovers and real incentives are made available to developers we do not expect to see any rapid gains in the Greek renewables sector.
|e/f = BMI estimate/foreacst. Source: National Sources, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||8.200||8.240||8.270||8.290||8.360||8.380||8.410|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||5.130||0.460||0.360||0.330||0.770||0.290||0.290|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||4,269.6||4,283.8||4,289.8||4,303.7||4,334.7||4,348.0||4,361.1|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||3.1||0.3||0.1||0.3||0.7||0.3||0.3|
Latest Updates and Structural Trends
We are maintaining our forecasts for minimal growth in the Greek renewables sector this quarter. Non-hydropower renewables capacity is forecast to expand by less than 1% in 2016 and similarly weak growth is expected in terms of generation - in part due to a lack of consumption growth in the market.In August 2016 the Greek government approved the renewable energy law. The new law marks a shift away from a feed-in-tariff (FiT) system to a feed-in-premium system and is aimed at reducing sizeable deficits in the renewable energy source fund. Smaller scale solar and wind projects will remain eligible for FiTs.
Some upside risk to these forecasts is presented by the wind power sector. In September 2016 the European Investment Bank approved a loan funding the construction and operation of 50MW of onshore wind farms in the Tanagra municipality in Viotia. We note, however, that uncertainty remains regarding regulatory changes to the renewables subsidy programme, particularly the tender process for new wind projects.
The Greece Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Greece. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Greece, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Greece, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Greece Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Greece renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Greece to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Greece renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Greece, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.