Ports Still Partially Decoupled From A Struggling Economy
Greece's outward-looking shipping sector continues to do better than the still-struggling economy. European transit freight demand plays an important part in determining overall activity levels, as does investment in port facilities. Because of this, the port of Piraeus has been able to show year-on-year (y-o-y) gains in both tonnage and container traffic since 2011. Our box traffic growth forecast for 2015 is a healthy 17% (down from an estimated 25.0% in 2014). The Port of Thessaloniki, which has lacked the benefits of large new investment, has in recent years followed a rather more volatile path with some quite sharp contractions in volume. In 2015 we expect a year of moderate growth at Thessaloniki.
The Greek economy is recovering, but the transition seems to be from deep recession to weak growth with continuing downside risks. We now expect GDP to gain 1.2% in 2015, up from an estimate of 0.2% positive growth in 2014, which itself came after six consecutive years of contraction (2008-2013). The problem is that the growth drivers are quite fragile. Household spending, the key driver, is itself based on less than solid foundations. Tight labour laws and weak demand means severe unemployment (over 25%) will persist for years. Wages will continue falling as the country devalues internally due to an inability to weaken its currency. Lending from banks is likely to remain subdued, as they continue to deleverage. Government spending is constrained by high debt levels. And net exports - another source of growth - are dependent on the mixed eurozone outlook. We think that a slight recovery in imports and weak demand from key eurozone trading partners will slow the pace of trade rebalancing. This suggests net exports' ability to drive growth will diminish somewhat over the next few years. As a result of these factors we project below-consensus GDP growth of 1.2% in both 2015 and 2016. On the medium term to...
The Greece Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and BMI Research's independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Greece.
BMI's Greece Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Greece.
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Greece to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Greek shipping market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Greece through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.