Passenger Car Sales
According to the Hong Kong Department of Transport, domestic passenger car sales declined by 9.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in April 2014 to 2,578 units, which is in line with our expectations of a more challenging market for the sector despite a strong start. This brings passenger car sales for the first four months of 2015 to 12,806 units, representing growth of 1.2% y-o-y. As we expect additional headwinds to weigh on passenger car sales in the latter half of the year, we now forecast passenger car sales to grow by 2.1% in 2015, down from 3.8% previously.
A key risk which we foresee over the coming quarters is a cooling property market will weigh on consumer sentiment. Our Country Risk team sees an increasing likelihood of a property price correction as demand from mainland Chinese investors, which have traditionally been an important source of demand for Hong Kong real estate, dries up due to the ongoing anti-corruption drive in China. A decline in property prices would hurt consumer sentiment and could easily have a negative spill over effect on passenger car demand.
That said, our forecasts still represents a slight improvement from the 1.9% domestic passenger car sales growth registered in 2014, which is also in line with our Country Risk team's outlook for the country. Despite our Country Risk team downgrading the country's long-term (2015-2024) real GDP growth forecast for Hong Kong to an average of 3.2% per annum, from 3.6% previously on the back of external headwinds from China ( see ' China, Property, High Debt Levels To Weigh On Growth' , May 21), economic growth will still be higher compared with 2014, when GDP expanded by 2.3%. Moreover, private consumption growth will improve to 3.8% in 2015 versus 2.7% in 2014, which will see consumer demand for durables such as cars remain resilient.
Commercial Vehicle Sales
In line with our tempered outlook for the passenger car sales segment, we now forecast CV sales to grow 15.8% in 2015...
The Hong Kong Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Hong Kong Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Hong Kong.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.