Hong Kong Autos Report

Published 17 June 2015

  • 60 pages
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$1,295.00
Hong Kong Autos Report

Passenger Car Sales

According to the Hong Kong Department of Transport, domestic passenger car sales declined by 9.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in April 2014 to 2,578 units, which is in line with our expectations of a more challenging market for the sector despite a strong start. This brings passenger car sales for the first four months of 2015 to 12,806 units, representing growth of 1.2% y-o-y. As we expect additional headwinds to weigh on passenger car sales in the latter half of the year, we now forecast passenger car sales to grow by 2.1% in 2015, down from 3.8% previously.

A key risk which we foresee over the coming quarters is a cooling property market will weigh on consumer sentiment. Our Country Risk team sees an increasing likelihood of a property price correction as demand from mainland Chinese investors, which have traditionally been an important source of demand for Hong Kong real estate, dries up due to the ongoing anti-corruption drive in China. A decline in property prices would hurt consumer sentiment and could easily have a negative spill over effect on passenger car demand.

That said, our forecasts still represents a slight improvement from the 1.9% domestic passenger car sales growth registered in 2014, which is also in line with our Country Risk team's outlook for the country. Despite our Country Risk team downgrading the country's long-term (2015-2024) real GDP growth forecast for Hong Kong to an average of 3.2% per annum, from 3.6% previously on the back of external headwinds from China ( see ' China, Property, High Debt Levels To Weigh On Growth' , May 21), economic growth will still be higher compared with 2014, when GDP expanded by 2.3%. Moreover, private consumption growth will improve to 3.8% in 2015 versus 2.7% in 2014, which will see consumer demand for durables such as cars remain resilient.

Commercial Vehicle Sales

In line with our tempered outlook for the passenger car sales segment, we now forecast CV sales to grow 15.8% in 2015...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Hong Kong 2013-2019)
15
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Hong Kong 2013-2019)
17
Table: Ex-Gratia Payment Scheme
17
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Hong Kong 2013-2019)
18
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Hong Kong 2013-2019)
18
Competitive Landscape
19
Passenger Vehicles
20
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Hong Kong 2013-2019)
20
Macroeconomic Forecasts
22
Economic Analysis
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
Asia - Risk/Reward Index
25
Table: Asia Pacific Autos Risk/Reward Index
27
Company Profile
28
Company Monitor
28
Crown Motors
31
Mercedes-Benz Hong Kong
33
Sime Darby China
34
Regional Overview
36
Table: Fuel Economy Targets By Geography
38
Table: Fuel Efficient Vehicle Incentive Schemes
40
Global Industry Overview
42
Africa Still The Growth Driver
42
Oil Prices A Boon For Importers
43
Regulation Driving Innovation
45
Table: Fuel Economy Targets By Geography
45
SUVs To Be Segment Of Choice
46
Demographic Forecast
47
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
48
Table: Key Population Ratios (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
48
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
49
Table: Population By Age Group (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
49
Table: Population By Age Group % (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
50
Methodology
52
Industry Forecasts
52
Sector-Specific Methodology
53
Sources
53
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
54
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
55

The Hong Kong Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Hong Kong Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Hong Kong.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Hong Kong to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Hong Kong automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Hong Kong automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hong Kong.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc