Passenger Car Sales
According to the Hong Kong Department of Transport, domestic passenger car sales grew 15.8% year-on-year in January 2015, to 3,024 units. After growing by 1.9% in 2014, we forecast car sales growth to accelerate in 2015 to 3.8%, in line with the pickup in GDP growth for this year. Despite the strong start to the year, we are happy to maintain our sales forecast as we see some headwinds, which could weigh on auto demand in the latter part of the year.
Despite our Country Risk team recently downgrading its 2015 GDP forecast for Hong Kong to 2.8% on the back of external headwinds from China ( see ' China, Property Headwinds Elicit GDP Downgrade', February 27), economic growth will still be higher compared with 2014, when GDP expanded by 2.3%. Moreover, private consumption growth will improve to 3.8% in 2015 versus 3.1% in 2014, which will see consumer demand for durables such as cars remain resilient.
However, we highlight the risk which a cooling property market will pose on consumer sentiment. Our Country Risk team sees an increasing likelihood of a property price correction as demand from mainland Chinese investors, which have traditionally been an important source of demand for Hong Kong real estate, dries up due to the ongoing anti-corruption drive in China. A decline in property prices would hurt consumer sentiment and could easily have a negative spillover effect on passenger car demand.
Commercial Vehicle Sales
We forecast commercial vehicle (CV) sales to grow 25.3% in 2015 after rising by an eye-watering 35.9% in 2014. The Ex-Gratia Payment scheme is a concerted effort by the Hong Kong government to phase out some 80,000 pre-Euro IV vehicles. It was implemented in March 2014, replacing the 'Cash for Clunkers' scheme. The new scheme requires owners to replace their pre-Euro IV vehicles with 'greener' ones, and provides owners with ex-gratia payments for de-registering their vehicles before the specified date. In addition, authorities will...
The Hong Kong Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Hong Kong Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Hong Kong.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Hong Kong to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Hong Kong automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Hong Kong automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hong Kong.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.