BMI View: We hold a modest and stable outlook over the medium term for the Hong Kong consumer electronics market over the course of our forecast period out to 2020. We already held a negative outlook for Hong Kong 's consumer electronics market in 2015 due to diminished growth prospects and unfavourable product pr oliferation cycles converging, but this was exacerbated by economic uncertainty and dec lining spending from visitors combining for an 8% decline in spending. The med ium- term outlook is brighter as the tablet, notebook, TV set and digital camera markets stabilise ; however , growth opportunities will still be limited due to saturation. Vendors will need to focus on upgrade/replacement sales, a sizeable opportunity in Hong Kong given the high income bias in the household income mix and an embedded preference for premium products. We forecast total consumer electronics spending will grow at a CAGR of 0. 8 % over 201 6 -20 20 , with upside should wearable devices gain mass market traction, but downside from the potential for a hard landing in China.
Latest Updates And Industry Developments
Computer Hardware Sales: USD1.2bn in 2016 to USD1.3bn in 2020. A more stable growth trajectory forecast over the medium term based on household income growth and replacement sales, after the boom and bust in the tablet market derived from the rapid diffusion of ownership.
AV Sales: USD926mn in 2016 to USD1.0bn in 2020. After contraction over 2013-2015, we expect the market to stabilise as the decline in digital camera volumes plateaus and Ultra-HD TV sets provide some upgrade momentum, but the market will not return to previous highs.
Handset Sales: USD2.6bn in 2016 to USD2.5bn in 2020. A combination of smartphone market saturation and price erosion will mean the handset market contracts in value terms, but it will remain the largest segment and highly lucrative in per capita terms.
|Strong Household Discretionary Spending Powers|
|Household Income Breakdown (2016-2020)|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department|
The Hong Kong Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in Hong Kong.
BMI Research's Hong Kong Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in Hong Kong.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for Hong Kong to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hong Kong consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Hong Kong through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.