BMI View: BMI has attributed the fall in mobile subscriber numbers in 2015 to the saturated state of the Hong Kong mobile market, together with Hong Kong's slowing economic growth and already high levels of LTE adoption. Operators are deriving growth and value from customers by bundling higher-value products and services like video and smart applications to their primary offering. In addition, the potential for postpaid subscribers to outnumber prepaid ones will remove some subscriber number volatility and reduce churn rates for operators in the longer term. This has positive implications for average revenues per user (ARPU). Meanwhile, we are bullish on the announcement that broadband provider Hong Kong Broadband Network (HKBN) will acquire New World Development's telecoms and online marketing service businesses. Going forward we expect the enterprise market to provide strong support for Hong Kong's broadband market, given that businesses require high-speed broadband connectivity to facilitate their operations and cross-border communications.
|4G Services Offer Value in a Saturated Market|
|Hong Kong Mobile Market Forecasts|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: OFCA, BMI|
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
The latest data from the OFCA showed there were 16.775mn mobile subscribers at the end of December 2015 and 16.724mn, down by 1.4% y-o-y. We forecast 16.98mn mobile subscribers by the end of our five-year forecast period in 2020, for a penetration rate of 224.7%, of which 94.4% will be 3G/4G. The highly saturated mobile market provides little room for organic growth, and revenue growth will come from migrating subscribers on to postpaid plans and encouraging consumption of more value-added services.
In the wireline sector, the focus is on FTTH as subscribers demand faster and more reliable fixed network connections. Based on full year data from the regulator for broadband subscribers, we forecast the number of broadband internet subscriptions to reach 2.65mn by 2020, equivalent to a penetration rate of 35%.
The Hong Kong Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Hong Kong's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Hong Kong Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Hong Kong.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Hong Kong to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hong Kong telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Hong Kong's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hong Kong.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.