BMI View: The Hungarian economy has been a regional underperformer in recent years, and the outlook is expected to remain weak in 2015 and into 2016 as forint depreciation against the dollar is expected to dampen device demand. This is a shift from the positive trend in 2014 when booming tablet and smartphone sales, as well as the fact upgrade demand was brought forward by the withdrawal of XP support and the FIFA World Cup , drove overall growth . Although several macroeconomic indicators are expected to continue to strengthen in 2015 , the depreciation of the forint against the US dollar will mean trading conditions remain challenging and we expect a contraction in both PC and AV demand in 2015, and only modest handset value growth .
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer Hardware Sales: USD933mn in 2014 to USD826mn in 2015, a decrease of 11.5%. A slowdown in tablet sales, and the fact desktop and notebook upgrade demand was brought forward to 2014 by XP support withdrawal, will exacerbate the negative impact of depreciation of the forint in 2015.
AV Sales: USD497mn in 2014 to USD470mn in 2015, -5.4% in US dollar terms. Digital camera and MP3 markets will continue to contract, but volumes are beginning to stabilise after the boom in smartphone volumes cannibalised sales rapidly 2012-2014.
Handset Sales: USD691mn in 2014 to USD700mn in 2015, +1.3% in US dollar terms. Marked slowdown from 2014, but expected to be the only segment to continue growing in an environment of forint depreciation as operator subsidies help to support market growth despite the constraints on Hungarian consumers.
Key Trends And Developments
The handset market in Hungary has been the outperforming segment of the consumer electronics market in recent years - and BMI expects this trend to continue into 2015 even though growth is forecast to slow markedly from 2014. One factor contributing to continued outperformance of handset sales growth is the lower average...
The Hungary Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in Hungary.
BMI Research's Hungary Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in Hungary.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for Hungary to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hungarian consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Hungary through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.