Hungary Oil & Gas Report

Published 28 May 2015

  • 106 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Hungary Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Despite an efficient refining sector and favourable regulatory environment, Hungary's weak upstream profile and persisting geopolitical tensions in th e region render s the country one of the least attractive oil and gas markets in Central and Eastern Europe. Small and depleting reserves will push Hungary's oil and gas production lower over the coming decade , thus making the country increasingly dependent on energy imports from Russia .

Headline Forecasts (Hungary 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 23.0 22.3 21.5 20.9 20.2 19.6 19.0
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 167.7 168.5 169.4 170.2 171.1 171.9 172.8
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 141.4 142.4 143.2 143.8 144.5 145.2 145.8
Dry natural gas production, bcm 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 9.6 9.4 9.3 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.9

The main trends and developments for Hungary's Oil & Gas sector are:

  • In February 2015, Hungary and Russia reached an agreement on the unused volumes of gas in line with a gas supply contract signed between the two countries in 1996. The new deal freed Budapest from 'take or pay' contracts and replaced them with an agreement that Hungary only needs to pay for the gas it consumes.

  • According to reports in late January 2015, Irish company Falcon Oil & Gas's farm-in partner in the Mako Trough licence in Hungary, Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS), had not completed a three-well drill programme by the original deadline. NIS's deadline to complete the work was extended to December 31 2014 from the original July 2014. NIS could only drill and test two of the three commitment wells.

  • In November 2014, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban urged the EU to construct gas pipeline...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Hungary 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (Hungary 2013-2018)
10
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (Hungary 2019-2024)
10
Upstream Projects
12
Table: Hungary - Main Upstream Projects
12
Upstream Production - Oil
12
Table: Oil Production (Hungary 2013-2018)
12
Table: Oil Production (Hungary 2019-2024)
13
Upstream Production - Gas
15
Table: Gas Production (Hungary 2013-2018)
15
Table: Gas Production (Hungary 2019-2024)
15
Refining
17
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Hungary 2013-2018)
17
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Hungary 2019-2024)
17
Refined Fuels Consumption
20
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Hungary 2013-2018)
20
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Hungary 2019-2024)
20
Gas Consumption
22
Table: Gas Consumption (Hungary 2013-2018)
22
Table: Gas Consumption (Hungary 2019-2024)
22
Trade - Oil
24
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Hungary 2013-2018)
24
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Hungary 2019-2024)
24
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Hungary 2013-2018)
26
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Hungary 2019-2024)
26
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude And Products (Hungary 2013-2018)
28
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude And Products (Hungary 2019-2024)
28
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
29
Table: Gas Net Exports (Hungary 2019-2024)
29
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
32
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
32
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
32
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
33
Upstream: Sending Gas To China
33
Regional Minnows Holding Up
35
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
36
Hungary Oil & Gas Report Q3 2015
Hungary Oil & Gas Report Q3 2015
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Downstream: Turkish Star Shines In Weak Market
36
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
37
Hungary - Risk/Reward Index
39
Hungary Upstream Index - Overview
39
Hungary Upstream Index - Rewards
39
Hungary Upstream Index - Risks
40
Hungary Downstream Index - Overview
40
Market Overview
41
Hungary Energy Market Overview
41
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
43
Oil Refineries
43
Table: Refineries In Hungary
43
Service Stations
44
Oil Storage Facilities
44
Oil Pipelines
44
Gas Storage Facilities
44
Gas Pipelines
45
Competitive Landscape
49
Competitive Landscape Summary
49
Table: Key Players - Hungary Oil & Gas Sector
50
Table: Key Upstream Player
50
Table: Key Downstream Players
50
Company Profile
51
Agip Hungaria
51
Magyar Olaj--s G-zipari Nyrt (MOL)
53
OMV Hungary
59
Shell Hungary
61
Other Summaries
63
Regional Overview
66
Central and Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
66
Oil Production: Caspian Leads Growth
66
Oil Consumption: Regional Demand Increasing
67
Refining Capacity: Outlook Remains Weak
68
Natural Gas Production: Ramping-Up For 2020 Targets
69
Gas Consumption: Soft Demand Supports Exports
70
Global Industry Overview
72
Oil Price Outlook
72
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
72
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
73
Appendix
80
Hungary Oil & Gas Report Q3 2015
Hungary Oil & Gas Report Q3 2015
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 5
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 5
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
80
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
80
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
81
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
82
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
84
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
84
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
85
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
86
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
86
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
87
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
88
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
88
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
89
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
90
Hungary - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
91
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports (Hungary 2013-2018)
91
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports (Hungary 2019-2024)
91
Hungary - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
92
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Hungary 2013-2018)
92
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Hungary 2019-2024)
93
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Hungary 2013-2018)
94
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Hungary 2019-2024)
95
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Hungary 2013-2018)
97
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Hungary 2019-2024)
98
Glossary
99
Table: Glossary Of Terms
99
Methodology
101
Industry Forecast Methodology
101
Source
103
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
103
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
105
Table: Weighting
106

The Hungary Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Hungary including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Hungary Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Hungarian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Hungary to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hungarian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Hungarian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc