Hungary Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Hungary Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View : Despite an efficient refining sector and favourable regulatory environment Hungary's weak upstream profile render s the country one of the least attractive oil and gas markets in Central and Eastern Europe. Small and depleting reserves will push Hungary's oil and gas production lower over the coming decade thus making the country increasingly dependent on energy imports from Russia .

Headline Forecasts (Hungary 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 23.0 20.0 19.4 18.7 18.2 17.6 17.1
Dry natural gas production, bcm 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 9.6 9.4 9.5 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5
Refined products production, 000b/d 165.0 165.8 172.5 169.0 167.3 168.2 167.3
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 141.4 152.6 160.1 167.8 174.2 181.0 187.9
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 54.00 53.00 60.00 64.00

The main trends and developments for Hungary's oil & gas sector are:

  • In July 2015, the Croatian government has declared the Krk LNG project a "strategic investment", and is expecting to begin construction in mid-2016. A three-year construction timeframe for the facility has been outlined, with expected completion by the end of 2019. We believe the LNG project will boost the flexibility of the gas market in Hungary and the wider region, and improve bargaining power against Russian gas supplies.

  • In February 2015, Hungary and Russia reached an agreement on the unused volumes of gas in line with a gas supply contract signed between the two countries in 1996. The new deal freed Budapest from 'take or pay' contracts and replaced them with an agreement that Hungary only needs to pay for the gas it consumes.

  • The upwards revision of Hungary's gas consumption has meant that Hungary will become more reliant on imports throughout our forecast period. Russia still stands best placed to supply this extra demand via an offshoot of the Brotherhood pipeline.

  • A dispute between Falcon Oil & Gas and Naftna Industrija Srbije has prevented the final of the planned three wells to be completed in the Mako Trough Licence. This ended the last of the major exploration projects in Hungary, giving major downside risk to Hungary's reserves.

  • Hungary has held licensing rounds in 2013, 2014 and 2015, with results from 2015 expected in 2016. Despite the commendable frequency of rounds, the lack of interest from major oil players remains a worry for the sector, with domestic Magyar Olaj-es Gazipari Nyrt still dominating the rounds.

  • We have revised up Hungary's consumption of refined fuels for our forecast period, with strong macros driving this growth in demand. This will result in Hungary making the transition from being a net exporter of refined products to a net importer, despite having a strong downstream sector.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Hungary 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Hungary 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Hungary 2019-2024)
11
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Hungary - Main Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
13
Table: Oil Production (Hungary 2013-2018)
13
Table: Oil Production (Hungary 2019-2024)
14
Upstream Production - Gas
16
Table: Gas Production (Hungary 2013-2018)
16
Table: Gas Production (Hungary 2019-2024)
16
Refining
18
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Hungary 2013-2018)
18
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Hungary 2019-2024)
18
Refined Fuels Consumption
21
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Hungary 2013-2018)
21
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Hungary 2019-2024)
21
Gas Consumption
23
Table: Gas Consumption (Hungary 2013-2018)
23
Table: Gas Consumption (Hungary 2019-2024)
23
Trade - Oil
25
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Hungary 2013-2018)
25
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Hungary 2019-2024)
25
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Hungary 2013-2018)
27
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Hungary 2019-2024)
27
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Hungary 2013-2018)
29
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Hungary 2019-2024)
29
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
30
Table: Gas Net Exports (Hungary 2019-2024)
30
Table: EU Financial Assistance For Select CEE Gas Pipeline Projects
32
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
34
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
34
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
34
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
35
Upstream: All Pipes Point To China
35
Regional Minnows Holding Up
37
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
38
Downstream: Turkish STAR Brightens Weak Market
38
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
39
Hungary - Risk/Reward Index
41
Hungary Upstream Index - Overview
41
Hungary Upstream Index - Rewards
41
Hungary Upstream Index - Risks
42
Hungary Downstream Index - Overview
42
Market Overview
43
Hungary Energy Market Overview
43
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
45
Oil Refineries
45
Table: Refineries In Hungary
45
Service Stations
46
Oil Storage Facilities
46
Oil Pipelines
46
Gas Storage Facilities
47
Gas Pipelines
47
Competitive Landscape
51
Competitive Landscape Summary
51
Table: Key Players - Hungary Oil & Gas Sector
52
Table: Key Upstream Player
52
Table: Key Downstream Players
52
Company Profile
53
Agip Hungaria
53
Magyar Olaj--s G-zipari Nyrt (MOL)
55
OMV Hungary
61
Shell Hungary
63
Other Summaries
65
Regional Overview
68
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
68
Oil Production: Caspian Driving Growth
68
Oil Consumption: Demand Tempered Due To Russian Weakness
69
Refining Capacity: Few Opportunities In Weak Market
70
Natural Gas Production: Caspian Ramping-Up For 2020 Targets
71
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
72
Gas Consumption: Soft Demand Supports Exports
73
Global Industry Overview
75
Global Energy Market Overview
75
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
75
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
78
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
79
Appendix
81
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
81
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
81
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
82
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
83
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
84
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
85
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
85
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
86
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
87
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
87
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
88
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
89
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
90
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
91
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
92
Hungary - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
93
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Hungary 2013-2018)
93
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Hungary 2019-2024)
93
Hungary - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
94
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Hungary 2013-2018)
94
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Hungary 2019-2024)
95
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Hungary 2013-2018)
96
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Hungary 2019-2024)
97
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Hungary 2013-2018)
99
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Hungary 2019-2024)
100
Glossary
101
Table: Glossary Of Terms
101
Methodology
103
Industry Forecast Methodology
103
Source
105
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
105
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
107
Table: Weighting
108

The Hungary Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Hungary including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Hungary Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Hungarian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Hungary to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hungarian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Hungarian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.