Hungary Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Hungary Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View : Despite its efficient refining sector and favourable regulatory environment , Hungary's weak upstream profile render s the country one of the le ss attractive oil and gas markets in Central and Eastern Europe. Small and depleting reserves will push Hungary's oil and gas production lower over the coming decade , thus making the country increasingly dependent on energy imports from Russia .

Headline Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 20.0 19.4 18.7 18.2 17.6 17.1 16.6
Dry natural gas production, bcm 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 9.4 9.5 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.7
Refined products production, 000b/d 165.8 172.5 169.0 167.3 168.2 167.3 168.2
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 152.6 160.1 167.8 174.2 181.0 187.9 194.8
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • In January 2016, UK-based JKX Oil & Gas won three 35-year production licences: Pely I (18sq km); Jaszkiser II (6sq km); and Emod V (100sq km). This increased the total number of the company's production licenses in Hungary to six.

  • In April 2015, the Hungarian government published the latest licensing round for eight oil and gas concession blocks. According to reports in late November 2015, O&GD Central was awarded four blocks (Berettyoujfalu, Mogyorod, Nagykata and Ocsa); state-owned Magyar Olaj-es Gazipari Nyrt (MOL) was awarded two blocks (Battonya-Pusztafoldvar Eszak and Dany); Pnabridge Hungary won the bid for the Puspokladany block; and Horizon Energy secured the Lakocsa concession.

  • We maintain our view that small and declining oil reserves will drive crude and liquids production down throughout our forecast period. From the estimated 2016 output of 18,700b/d, total production is expected to shrink to 16,600b/d in 2020 and continue falling to 14,400b/d by 2025.

  • We hold our forecast that Hungary's gas consumption will be driven by rising electricity consumption and a robust industrial sector, which both comprise significant shares of gas demand. Overall gas consumption is forecast to rise from 9.9bcm in 2016 to 11.3bcm in 2025.

  • Hungary will remain a net importer of crude over the coming decade, increasing the import volumes from 150,300b/d in 2016 to 158,000b/d in 2025. We believe that surging domestic demand and stable output from the two local refineries will turn Hungary into a net importer of refined products already in 2018.

  • Strong growth in Hungary's gas consumption and limited domestic production will continue lifting gas imports across our forecast period. Gas imports are projected to reach 8.2bcm in 2016, rising to 10.2bcm in 2025, with Russia remaining the major supplier.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2020)
7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Hungary 2014-2019)
12
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Hungary 2020-2025)
12
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Hungary - Main Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
14
Latest Updates
14
Structural Trends
14
Table: Oil Production (Hungary 2014-2019)
15
Table: Oil Production (Hungary 2020-2025)
15
Upstream Production - Gas
16
Latest Updates
16
Structural Trends
16
Table: Gas Production (Hungary 2014-2019)
17
Table: Gas Production (Hungary 2020-2025)
18
Refining
19
Latest Updates
19
Structural Trends
19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Hungary 2014-2019)
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Hungary 2020-2025)
21
Refined Fuels Consumption
22
Latest Updates
22
Structural Trends
22
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Hungary 2014-2019)
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Hungary 2020-2025)
24
Gas Consumption
25
Latest Updates
25
Structural Trends
25
Table: Gas Consumption (Hungary 2014-2019)
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Hungary 2020-2025)
27
Trade - Oil
28
Crude Oil Net Trade
28
Latest Updates
28
Structural Trends
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Hungary 2014-2019)
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Hungary 2020-2025)
30
Refined Products Net Trade
30
Latest Updates
30
Structural Trends
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Hungary 2014-2019)
31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Hungary 2020-2025)
32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
33
Latest Updates
33
Structural Trends
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Hungary 2014-2019)
35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Hungary 2020-2025)
36
Industry Risk Reward Index
37
Central And Eastern Europe - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
37
Table: Regional Risk/Reward Index Averages - High Risk, Low Reward In Central And Eastern Europe
37
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
38
Upstream: China Still The Target Market
39
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index
41
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
42
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index
44
Hungary - Risk/Reward Index
46
Hungary Upstream Index - Overview
46
Hungary Upstream Index - Rewards
46
Hungary Upstream Index - Risks
46
Hungary Downstream Index - Overview
47
Market Overview
48
Hungary Energy Market Overview
48
Regulatory Structure
48
Fiscal Regime
48
Licensing Regime
49
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
50
Oil Refineries
50
Table: Refineries In Hungary
50
Service Stations
51
Oil Storage Facilities
51
Oil Pipelines
51
Gas Storage Facilities
52
Gas Pipelines
52
Table: Gas Pipeline Infrustucture
52
Competitive Landscape
53
Competitive Landscape Summary
53
Table: Key Players - Hungary Oil & Gas Sector
54
Table: Key Upstream Player
54
Table: Key Downstream Players
54
Company Profile
55
Agip Hungaria
55
MOL
58
OMV Hungary
66
Shell Hungary
68
Other Summaries
71
Regional Overview
73
Central And Eastern Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview
73
Oil Production: Output Growth Stalling
73
Oil Consumption: Weak EM Growth Softens Demand
74
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Growth
75
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Depends On China's Hunger
76
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
77
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
78
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Oil And Gas Production And Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
79
Glossary
81
Table: Glossary Of Terms
81
Methodology
83
Industry Forecast Methodology
83
Source
85
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
85
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
87
Table: Weighting
88

The Hungary Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Hungary including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Hungary Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Hungarian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Hungary to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hungarian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Hungarian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.