BMI View: With small and declining hydrocarbon reserves, no exploration or field development activities taking place and a ban on hydraulic fracking, Hungary holds a very weak position in the upstream sector. While the country boasts an efficient downstream sector, rapidly rising domestic fuels consumption will turn Hungary into a net importer of refined products in 2018.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||20.4||19.8||19.1||18.5||17.9||17.4||16.9|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||165.8||172.5||169.0||167.3||168.2||167.3||168.1|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||150.8||158.2||165.8||172.3||178.9||185.8||192.6|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||1.9||1.8||1.7||1.6||1.5||1.5||1.4|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||8.4||9.2||9.6||9.8||10.0||10.2||10.4|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
According to reports in Natural Gas Europe, UK-listed JKX Oil and Gas will increase its focus on gas prospects in Hungary and Slovakia in 2016, after the company faced disappointing results in Ukraine during 2015. JKX Oil and Gas has 100% interest in six production licences in Hungary.
As of April 2016, Hungary and Croatia were negotiating bidirectional flows of natural gas between the two countries (ICES). Hungary expects to import natural gas from Croatia after the completion of Krk LNG project on Croatia's Adriatic shore.
Hungary has very small proven oil and gas reserves and, currently, there are no exploration activities taking place in the country. We don't expect our bearish forecasts to change in the foreseeable future as the government has imposed a ban on hydraulic fracking.
Limited oil reserves and no exploration or development activities will push Hungary's already small oil production even lower. Production volumes will contract from 19,750b/d in 2015 to around 14,650b/d in 2025.
Hungary produced 72,450b/d of refined fuels in 2015. Diesel and motor gasoline accounted for around 60% of the output. Continued investment in the country's refining infrastructure will sustain largely stable output of refined products across the forecast period to 2025.
Domestic consumption of refined products will increase steadily throughout our forecast period on the back of strong macro fundamentals, especially on the manufacturing and private consumption side. Overall demand will grow from 152,900b/d in 2056 to 216,400b/d in 2025.
Hungary will remain a net importer of crude oil, increasing the import volumes from 152,700b/d in 2015 to 157,700b/d in 2025. We hold our view that rapidly increasing demand will turn Hungary into a net importer of refined products already in 2018.
We hold our view that sustained growth in domestic demand and falling production levels will make Hungary increasingly dependent on gas imports, which will rise from 7.4bcm in 2015 to 9.8bcm in 2025.
The Hungary Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Hungary including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Hungary Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Hungarian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Hungary to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hungarian oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Hungarian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
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Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
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A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
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