BMI View : Despite an efficient refining sector and favourable regulatory environment Hungary's weak upstream profile render s the country one of the least attractive oil and gas markets in Central and Eastern Europe. Small and depleting reserves will push Hungary's oil and gas production lower over the coming decade thus making the country increasingly dependent on energy imports from Russia .
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||23.0||20.0||19.4||18.7||18.2||17.6||17.1|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||2.0||1.9||1.8||1.7||1.6||1.6||1.5|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||9.6||9.4||9.5||9.9||10.1||10.3||10.5|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||165.0||165.8||172.5||169.0||167.3||168.2||167.3|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||141.4||152.6||160.1||167.8||174.2||181.0||187.9|
The main trends and developments for Hungary's oil & gas sector are:
In July 2015, the Croatian government has declared the Krk LNG project a "strategic investment", and is expecting to begin construction in mid-2016. A three-year construction timeframe for the facility has been outlined, with expected completion by the end of 2019. We believe the LNG project will boost the flexibility of the gas market in Hungary and the wider region, and improve bargaining power against Russian gas supplies.
In February 2015, Hungary and Russia reached an agreement on the unused volumes of gas in line with a gas supply contract signed between the two countries in 1996. The new deal freed Budapest from 'take or pay' contracts and replaced them with an agreement that Hungary only needs to pay for the gas it consumes.
The upwards revision of Hungary's gas consumption has meant that Hungary will become more reliant on imports throughout our forecast period. Russia still stands best placed to supply this extra demand via an offshoot of the Brotherhood pipeline.
A dispute between Falcon Oil & Gas and Naftna Industrija Srbije has prevented the final of the planned three wells to be completed in the Mako Trough Licence. This ended the last of the major exploration projects in Hungary, giving major downside risk to Hungary's reserves.
Hungary has held licensing rounds in 2013, 2014 and 2015, with results from 2015 expected in 2016. Despite the commendable frequency of rounds, the lack of interest from major oil players remains a worry for the sector, with domestic Magyar Olaj-es Gazipari Nyrt still dominating the rounds.
We have revised up Hungary's consumption of refined fuels for our forecast period, with strong macros driving this growth in demand. This will result in Hungary making the transition from being a net exporter of refined products to a net importer, despite having a strong downstream sector.
The Hungary Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Hungary including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Hungary Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Hungarian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Hungary to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hungarian oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Hungarian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.