Hungary Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Hungary Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: With small and declining hydrocarbon reserves, no exploration or field development activities taking place and a ban on fracking, Hungary holds a very weak position in the upstream sector. While the country boasts an efficient downstream sector, rapidly rising domestic fuels consumption will turn Hungary into a net importer of refined products in 2018.

Headline Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 20.4 19.7 19.1 18.5 17.9 17.4 16.9
Refined products production, 000b/d 165.8 172.4 169.0 167.3 168.1 167.3 168.1
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 150.8 158.2 165.8 172.3 178.9 185.8 192.6
Dry natural gas production, bcm 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 8.3 9.2 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.4
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 45.50 55.00 68.00 65.00 67.00

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

  • According to reports in Natural Gas Europe, UK-listed JKX Oil and Gas will increase its focus on gas prospects in Hungary and Slovakia in 2016, after the company faced disappointing results in Ukraine during 2015. JKX Oil and Gas has 100% interest in six production licences in Hungary.

  • Hungary has very small and declining oil and gas reserves. A lack of significant exploration activity and the ban on hydraulic fracking remove large-scale upside risk to exploration over the coming years.

  • Hungary's crude oil refining capacity is set to remain stable at 212,000b/d throughout our forecast period. We do not expect significant changes in the country's refined products output, as continuous investment in Hungary's two refining facilities will ensure high utilisation rates and sustained production volumes over the coming decade.

  • Domestic consumption of refined products will increase steadily throughout our forecast period on the back of strong macro fundamentals, especially on the manufacturing and private consumption side. Risks to this forecast nevertheless lie to the downside over the coming quarters on the back of a deceleration of fixed investment and export growth which can weigh on economic activity.

  • Hungary will remain a net importer of crude throughout our forecast period, increasing the import volumes from 152,700b/d in 2015 to 157,700b/d in 2025. We hold our view that rapidly increasing demand and stable domestic output will turn Hungary into a net importer of refined products from 2018 onwards.

  • Growing electricity consumption and strong industrial expansion will underpin the incremental increases in gas consumption throughout our forecast period. Overall gas consumption is forecast to rise from 9.2bcm in 2015 to 10.9bcm in 2025.

  • Hungary's modest gas production will be unable to satisfy growing domestic consumption, leading to a yawning deficit that will be filled by rising imports.

  • As of April 2016, Hungary and Croatia were negotiating bidirectional flows of natural gas between the two countries (ICES). Hungary expects to import natural gas from Croatia after the completion of Krk LNG project on Croatia's Adriatic shore.

  • In January 2016 Romanian state-owned gas pipeline operator Transgaz announced it will receive a EUR179mn (USD194mn) grant from the European Commission (EC) to build the Romanian section of the pipeline connecting Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Austria. The EUR560mn (USD610mn) scheme, which involves development of a 550km natural gas interconnector with a total annual capacity of 1.5bn cubic metres towards Bulgaria and 4.4bn cubic metres towards Hungary, is due for completion in 2019.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2020)
7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Hungary 2014-2019)
12
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Hungary 2020-2025)
12
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Hungary - Main Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
14
Latest Updates
14
Structural Trends
14
Table: Oil Production (Hungary 2014-2019)
15
Table: Oil Production (Hungary 2020-2025)
16
Upstream Production - Gas
17
Latest Updates
17
Structural Trends
17
Table: Gas Production (Hungary 2014-2019)
18
Table: Gas Production (Hungary 2020-2025)
19
Refining
20
Latest Updates
20
Structural Trends
20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Hungary 2014-2019)
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Hungary 2020-2025)
22
Refined Fuels Consumption
23
Latest Updates
23
Structural Trends
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Hungary 2014-2019)
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Hungary 2020-2025)
25
Gas Consumption
26
Latest Updates
26
Structural Trends
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Hungary 2014-2019)
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Hungary 2020-2025)
28
Trade - Oil
29
Crude Oil
29
Latest Updates
29
Structural Trends
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Hungary 2014-2020)
30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Hungary 2020-2025)
31
Refined Products
31
Latest Updates
31
Structural Trends
31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Hungary 2014-2019)
32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Hungary 2020-2025)
33
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
34
Latest Updates
34
Structural Trends
34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Hungary 2014-2019)
36
Table: Gas Net Exports (Hungary 2020-2025)
37
Industry Risk Reward Index
38
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
38
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
38
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
39
Upstream: China Still The Target Market
39
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
41
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
42
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
44
Hungary - Risk/Reward Index
46
Upstream Index - Overview
46
Upstream Index - Rewards
46
Upstream Index - Risks
46
Downstream Index - Overview
47
Market Overview
48
Hungary Energy Market Overview
48
Regulatory Structure
48
Fiscal Regime
48
Licensing Regime
49
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
50
Oil Refineries
50
Table: Refineries In Hungary
50
Service Stations
51
Oil Storage Facilities
51
Oil Pipelines
51
Gas Storage Facilities
52
Gas Pipelines
52
Table: Gas Pipeline Infrustucture
52
Competitive Landscape
53
Competitive Landscape Summary
53
Table: Key Players - Hungary Oil & Gas Sector
54
Table: Key Upstream Player
54
Table: Key Downstream Players
54
Company Profile
55
MOL
55
Latest Updates
55
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Hungary
56
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
57
Regional Overview
58
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
58
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices
58
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles
59
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing
60
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent
61
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
62
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
63
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
64
Glossary
66
Table: Glossary Of Terms
66
Methodology
68
Industry Forecast Methodology
68
Source
70
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
70
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
72
Table: Weighting
73

The Hungary Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Hungary including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Hungary Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Hungarian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Hungary to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hungarian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Hungarian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.