BMI View : Despite its efficient refining sector and favourable regulatory environment , Hungary's weak upstream profile render s the country one of the le ss attractive oil and gas markets in Central and Eastern Europe. Small and depleting reserves will push Hungary's oil and gas production lower over the coming decade , thus making the country increasingly dependent on energy imports from Russia .
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||20.0||19.4||18.7||18.2||17.6||17.1||16.6|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||1.9||1.8||1.7||1.6||1.6||1.5||1.4|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||9.4||9.5||9.9||10.1||10.3||10.5||10.7|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||165.8||172.5||169.0||167.3||168.2||167.3||168.2|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||152.6||160.1||167.8||174.2||181.0||187.9||194.8|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
In January 2016, UK-based JKX Oil & Gas won three 35-year production licences: Pely I (18sq km); Jaszkiser II (6sq km); and Emod V (100sq km). This increased the total number of the company's production licenses in Hungary to six.
In April 2015, the Hungarian government published the latest licensing round for eight oil and gas concession blocks. According to reports in late November 2015, O&GD Central was awarded four blocks (Berettyoujfalu, Mogyorod, Nagykata and Ocsa); state-owned Magyar Olaj-es Gazipari Nyrt (MOL) was awarded two blocks (Battonya-Pusztafoldvar Eszak and Dany); Pnabridge Hungary won the bid for the Puspokladany block; and Horizon Energy secured the Lakocsa concession.
We maintain our view that small and declining oil reserves will drive crude and liquids production down throughout our forecast period. From the estimated 2016 output of 18,700b/d, total production is expected to shrink to 16,600b/d in 2020 and continue falling to 14,400b/d by 2025.
We hold our forecast that Hungary's gas consumption will be driven by rising electricity consumption and a robust industrial sector, which both comprise significant shares of gas demand. Overall gas consumption is forecast to rise from 9.9bcm in 2016 to 11.3bcm in 2025.
Hungary will remain a net importer of crude over the coming decade, increasing the import volumes from 150,300b/d in 2016 to 158,000b/d in 2025. We believe that surging domestic demand and stable output from the two local refineries will turn Hungary into a net importer of refined products already in 2018.
Strong growth in Hungary's gas consumption and limited domestic production will continue lifting gas imports across our forecast period. Gas imports are projected to reach 8.2bcm in 2016, rising to 10.2bcm in 2025, with Russia remaining the major supplier.
The Hungary Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Hungary including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Hungary Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Hungarian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Hungary to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hungarian oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Hungarian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.