Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 03 August 2015

  • 111 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Hungary's improving macroeconomic outlook and pledges by the government to raise healthcare expenditure will boost pharmaceutical sales in the coming years. Consumer demand for over-the-counter medicines and greater uptake of generic medicines will be the primary drivers of pharmaceutical sales growth, as uptake of innovative drugs will remain hindered by the pricing sensitivity and budgetary constraints of the OEP national healthcare fund. However, Hungary's attractiveness to multinational drugmakers will remain impeded by onerous regulatory burden, pricing pressures and punitive taxes on pharmaceutical companies.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: HUF640.21bn (USD2.75bn) in 2014 to HUF652.76bn (USD2.31bn) in 2015; +2.8% in local currency terms and -15.9% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: HUF2,382bn (USD10.23bn) in 2014 to HUF2,427bn (USD8.60bn) in 2015; +1.9% in local currency terms and -15.9% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Index

Hungary currently ranks fourth out of the 20 regional markets profiled in the Central and Eastern Europe region, with a score of 56.0. While its Risks profile is generally predictable, Hungary's Rewards score has improved considerably due to favourable currency effects and our improving outlook for the country's pharmaceutical market.

Key Trends & Developments

  • In July 2015, the National Institute of Pharmacy and Nutrition (OGYEI) announced that all drugs containing codeine were to be transferred from the over-the-counter category to prescription-only category.

  • In July 2015, the Hungarian parliament passed the Act on Primary Healthcare, delegating the responsibility of primary care to municipal governments.

  • In June 2015, the Hungarian government submitted a bill to parliament designed to prevent the illegal parallel export of medicines. The bill stipulated that marketing authorisation holders were to be entitled to refuse to supply any medicines ordered if they believed that they were oversupplying the...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2011-2019)
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
17
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2011-2019)
19
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2011-2019)
20
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2011-2019)
20
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2011-2019)
22
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2011-2019)
24
Generic Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2011-2019)
26
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
26
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2011-2019)
28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2013-2019)
30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Hungary 2013-2019)
30
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
31
Macroeconomic Forecasts
32
Economic Analysis
32
Table: Economic Activity (Hungary 2010-2019)
39
Industry Risk Reward Indices
40
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2015
40
Hungary Risk/Reward Index
46
Rewards
46
Risks
46
Market Overview
48
Industry Trends And Developments
50
Epidemiology
50
Healthcare System
53
Table: Healthcare Resources (Hungary 2009-2014)
55
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Hungary 2009-2014)
55
Table: Healthcare Activity (Hungary 2009-2014)
56
Healthcare Funding
56
Research and Development
57
Clinical Trials
57
Regulatory Development
60
Pharmaceutical Advertising
61
Intellectual Property Regime
62
Pricing Regime
63
Table: OEP Reimbursement Changes, September 2014
65
Pharmaceutical Mark-Ups
65
Table: Hungary - Pharmaceutical Price Build-Up (%)
66
Reimbursement Regime
66
Competitive Landscape
69
Company Profile
75
Egis Pharmaceuticals (Servier)
75
Eli Lilly
78
Gedeon Richter
81
GlaxoSmithKline
86
Merck & Co
88
Novartis
90
Pfizer
92
Sanofi
94
Teva
96
Demographic Forecast
99
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Hungary 1990-2025)
100
Table: Key Population Ratios (Hungary 1990-2025)
100
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Hungary 1990-2025)
101
Table: Population By Age Group (Hungary 1990-2025)
101
Table: Population By Age Group % (Hungary 1990-2025)
102
Glossary
104
Methodology
106
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
106
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
106
Notes On Methodology
107
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
108
Index Overview
109
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
109
Indicator Weightings
110

The Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Hungary pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Hungary, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hungarian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Hungarian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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