Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Hungary's change in fiscal policy will see public health expenditure boosted in the shortterm. We have therefore revised our healthcare expenditure figures. This increase is aimed at increasing the ruling party's popularity before the 2018 election and most of the funds will be spent on increased healthcare worker wages and paying off rising hospital debts. There will be minimal positive impact on the health service as a whole over the long-term.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: HUF660.8bn (USD2.37bn) in 2015 to HUF681.8bn (USD2.35bn) in 2016; +3.2% in local currency terms and -0.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast in local currency terms increased from last quarter.

  • Healthcare: HUF2.50trn (USD8.96bn) in 2015 to HUF2.63trn (USD9.07bn) in 2016; +5.0% in local currency terms and 1.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms slightly decreased from last quarter.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 2.785 2.366 2.312 2.453 2.689 2.941 3.039
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 2.01 1.96 1.95 1.89 1.84 1.79 1.76
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 27.2 26.4 25.4 24.2 23.4 22.7 22.2
Health spending, USDbn 10.233 8.957 9.096 10.131 11.505 12.945 13.691

Risk/Reward Index

Hungary currently ranks fifth (same as in the previous quarter) out of the 20 regional markets profiled in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region, with a score of 57.9. While its Risks profile is generally predictable, Hungary's Rewards score has improved considerably due to favourable currency effects and our improving outlook for the country's pharmaceutical market.

Latest Updates

  • Minister of National Economy Mihaly Varga announced in early August 2016 that his Ministry is preparing a new package of expansionary fiscal stimulus measures, which will target to raise economic growth to around 5%. Varga stated the government's need to support vital industries with considerable growth potential, including the pharmaceutical industry.

  • Hungarian government is proceeding with plans to levy new fees on retailers of electronic cigarettes this year, according to news agency MTI in October 2016. The fees could include a universal administration fee of HUF475,000 (USD1,685) and a separate fee, which will depend on the brand, nicotine strength and cartridges. Additional revenues to the government are seen to go to the National Institute of Pharmacy and Nutrition.

  • On June 10 2016, the minister repeated his prior proclamation in regard to heavy investment in hospital infrastructure, made in late February. As of June, over HUF500bn (USD1.74bn) has been spent on the refurbishment of hospitals in the past year, a significant increase from the HUF322bn (USD1.17bn) that had been spent by February. Moreover, this investment has not been limited to large cities, but every provincial hospital has benefited from development.

BMI Economic View

Hungary's current account surplus will narrow over the next two years on the back of weak external demand in key eurozone trading partners and strong domestic consumption. Over the medium term, external competitiveness will increasingly suffer from rising unit labour costs.

BMI Political View

Following a referendum on October 2, Hungary's rejection of the EU's migrant resettlement proposals will bolster domestic support for Prime Minister Viktor Orban and the governing Fidesz party. Tensions with the EU will worsen considerably and could result in a number of punitive measures being taken against Hungary.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2012-2020)
13
Healthcare Market Forecast
14
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2012-2020)
16
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2012-2020)
16
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2012-2020)
17
Prescription Drug Market
18
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2012-2020)
19
Patented Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2012-2020)
22
Generic Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2012-2020)
24
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
25
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2012-2020)
26
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
27
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2020)
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Hungary 2014-2020)
29
Industry Risk Reward Index
30
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
30
Hungary Risk/Reward Index
36
Rewards
36
Risks
36
Regulatory Review
38
Intellectual Property Issues
40
Pricing Regime
41
Table: OEP Reimbursement Changes, September 2014
43
Reimbursement Regime
43
Market Overview
46
Healthcare Sector
47
Table: Healthcare Resources (Hungary 2010-2015)
48
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Hungary 2010-2015)
49
Table: Healthcare Activity (Hungary 2010-2015)
49
Research & Development
50
Clinical Trials
51
Epidemiology
52
Competitive Landscape
55
Research-Based Industry
55
Table: Multinational Market Activity
57
Generic Drugmakers
58
Pharmaceutical Distribution
59
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
60
Company Profile
62
Egis Pharmaceuticals (Servier)
62
Gedeon Richter
65
Demographic Forecast
70
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Hungary 1990-2025)
71
Table: Key Population Ratios (Hungary 1990-2025)
71
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Hungary 1990-2025)
72
Table: Population By Age Group (Hungary 1990-2025)
72
Table: Population By Age Group % (Hungary 1990-2025)
73
Glossary
75
Methodology
77
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
77
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
77
Notes On Methodology
78
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
79
Index Overview
80
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
80
Indicator Weightings
81

The Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Hungary pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Hungary, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hungarian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Hungarian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.