BMI View: The Hungarian healthcare sector will continue to face challenges which will limit the country's attractiveness to multinational pharmaceutical firms. Low wages, a rising disease burden and the migrant crisis have caused the healthcare system to be labelled as in a critical condition.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: HUF660.80bn (USD2.37bn) in 2015 to HUF668.00bn (USD2.28bn) in 2016; +1.1% in local currency terms and -3.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.
Healthcare: HUF2.43trn (USD8.70bn) in 2015 to HUF2.47trn (USD8.43bn) in 2016; +1.6% in local currency terms and -3.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||2.785||2.366||2.284||2.462||2.709||2.961||3.058|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||2.03||2.04||1.99||1.92||1.87||1.82||1.79|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||27.2||27.2||27.1||26.9||26.7||26.5||26.2|
|Health spending, USDbn||10.231||8.699||8.434||9.157||10.153||11.189||11.659|
Hungary currently ranks third (up from the sixth position in the previous quarter) out of the 20 regional markets profiled in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region, with a score of 59.1. While its Risks profile is generally predictable, Hungary's Rewards score has improved considerably due to favourable currency effects and our improving outlook for the country's pharmaceutical market.
In November, Hungary-based drugmaker Gedeon Richter has posted a 21% y-o-y increase in net profit to HUF6.85bn (USD23.67mn) for Q315 versus Q314; revenue expanded 4.2% y-o-y to HUF92.6bn (USD320.55mn) in Q315. The results beat analysts' expectations for net profit and the performance was driven by strong sales in the EU and China which compensated for declines in the Russian market due to the sharp fall in the rouble. The company expects its full-year revenue to remain steady or decline by up to 2% compared with 2014 in euro terms.
A letter published on December 4 2015, signed by almost 800 doctors working in Hungary, lamenting the state of the country's healthcare system highlights some of the challenges facing the Hungarian healthcare sector. Within the letter the sector is described as in a 'critical condition', and an increase in the wages of medical professionals, which are lower than many other Eastern European countries, were demanded.
In January, Gedeon Richter has acquired from its partner, Rxmidas Pharmaceuticals Holdings, its outstanding 50% stake in Gedeon Richter Rxmidas Joint. Subsequent to the present acquisition, Richter now holds 100% of Gedeon Richter Rxmidas Joint Venture and consequently will be in full charge of its contraceptive and OTC business in China.
BMI Economic View
Hungary's current account surplus will remain among emerging Europe's largest in the coming years, as economic recovery in the eurozone boosts export demand and oil prices remain low. However, we expect the surplus to decline steadily in the coming years on the back of weaker global trade volumes, a modest rebound in commodity prices, and relatively strong domestic demand.
BMI Political View
Domestic support for the ruling Fidesz party will stay strong over the coming months, as the government's aggressive measures to keep out migrants prove to be effective. Moreover, a common stance on the migrant crisis will strengthen the position of the Visegrad Group in Europe.
The Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Hungary pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Hungary, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hungarian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Hungarian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.