BMI View: Hungary's pharmaceutical market represents a moderate but reliable commercial prospect within Central and Eastern Europe. The government plays a key role in the provision of medical services as demonstrated by its recent ban on parallel exports of medicines and the decentrali s ation of primary care. We nevertheless expect the private sector to become more involved over the medium term.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: HUF648.10bn (USD2.79bn) in 2014 to HUF660.80bn (USD2.36bn) in 2015; +2.0% in local currency terms and -15.3% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: HUF2.38trn (USD10.22bn) in 2014 to HUF2.42trn (USD8.65bn) in 2015; +1.9% in local currency terms and -15.3% in US dollar terms.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||2.878||2.785||2.360||2.398||2.598||2.855||3.136|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||2.16||2.03||2.04||2.01||1.96||1.91||1.86|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||27.5||27.3||27.3||27.3||27.2||27.3||27.3|
|Health spending, USDbn||10.466||10.217||8.653||8.800||9.540||10.472||11.485|
Hungary currently ranks sixth (down from the fourth position in the previous quarter) out of the 20 regional markets profiled in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region, with a score of 54.8. While its Risks profile is generally predictable. Concerns exist over respect for intellectual property protection and market barriers, with the country included in the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA)'s special 301 submission for the fifth consecutive year in 2015. Hungary's Rewards score, however, has improved considerably due to favourable currency effects and our improving outlook for the country's pharmaceutical market.
Gedeon Richter surprised investors and market observers with significantly better-than-expected results for H115. In H115, Gedeon's total revenues grew by 5.3% y-o-y in HUF terms to HUF183.95bn (USD654mn) highlighting the recovery in revenues and rebounding after the decline earlier in H214.
In August, Gedeon Richter signed a licence and distribution deal with Germany's Stada Arzneimittel to sell Richter's biosimilar product pegfilgrastim in Europe. Under the terms of the agreement, Stada will get non-exclusive distribution rights for pegfilgrastim for Europe (excluding Russia), while Richter will retain its right to distribute and market the product worldwide.
In September, Allergan and Gedeon Richter reported that the FDA has approved Vraylar (cariprazine) capsules, an atypical antipsychotic, for the acute treatment of manic or mixed episodes associated with bipolar I disorder and for treatment of schizophrenia in adults.
BMI Economic View
Hungary's current account surplus will reach a record high of 6.3% of GDP in 2015, remaining the largest among emerging European peers in the coming years even as it gradually narrows. Strong external buffers will support international reserve accumulation and facilitate external deleveraging, supporting Hungary's sovereign profile.
BMI Political View
An aggressive stance against accepting migrants will play well supporters of the ruling Fidesz party, and help win back voters from the surging far-right Jobbik. However, it risks doing serious damage to Hungary's standing in the EU and, if structural funding is cut off, the economic outlook too.
The Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Hungary pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Hungary, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hungarian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Hungarian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.