Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 29 January 2015

  • 107 pages
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$1,295.00
Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Hungary's pharmaceutical market will stabilise and grow slightly in 2015. The challenging operating environment, regulatory burden and punitive taxes on the pharmaceutical sector will continue to stunt growth. Pharmaceutical growth in local currency terms will be driven by consumer demand for over-the-counter medicines and greater uptake of generic medicines.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: HUF579.14bn (USD2.50bn) in 2014 to HUF590.49bn (USD2.31bn) in 2014; +2.0% in local currency terms and -7.9% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: HUF2,191bn (USD9.47bn) in 2014 to HUF2,232bn (USD8.72bn) in 2014; +1.9% in local currency terms and -7.9% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Index

Our proprietary Risk/Reward assessment tool has been gradually adjusted to be increasingly transparent and sensitive in relation to potential Rewards. Therefore, as Hungary's market opportunity has worsened, it has slipped down our regional table. Hungary currently ranks ninth out of the 20 regional markets profiled in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region, with a score of 52.4. While its Risks profile is generally predictable, Hungary's Rewards score continues to reflect its challenging pharmaceutical market outlook.

Key Trends & Developments

  • In January 2015, the Hungarian minister for Human Resources stated that the Hungarian government wanted to offer tax advantages to private healthcare providers. The Hungarian state is looking at the private sector to reduce some of the burden on the public healthcare system's finances.

  • Only an additional HUF4bn (USD15mn) will be spent by the National Health Insurance Fund (OEP) in 2015 on the reimbursement of medicines than was spent in 2014 (HUF294.1bn). Most of the increase in healthcare expenditure will be directed towards paying overdue debts of hospitals.

  • Gedeon Richter warned in December 2014 that the depreciation of the Russian rouble would have a negative impact on its Q414 earnings, with a substantial...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Industry Forecast
13
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
13
Table: Hungary Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (2010-2018)
14
Healthcare Market Forecast
15
Table: Hungary Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (2010-2018)
16
Table: Hungary Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (2010-2018)
17
Table: Hungary Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (2010-2018)
17
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
18
Table: Hungary Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (2010-2018)
19
Patented Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Hungary Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (2010-2018)
21
Generic Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Hungary Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (2010-2018)
23
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
23
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (2010-2018)
25
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
25
Table: Hungary Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (2012-2018)
27
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Hungary 2012-2018)
27
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
27
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
28
Macroeconomic Forecasts
29
Economic Analysis
29
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Hungary 2011-2018)
35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
36
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
36
Hungary Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Rewards
43
Risks
43
Market Overview
45
Industry Trends And Developments
46
Epidemiology
46
Communicable Disease
47
Healthcare System
48
Healthcare Funding
49
Medical Tourism
50
Research and Development (R&D)
50
Clinical Trials
51
Regulatory Development
53
Pharmaceutical Advertising
54
Intellectual Property Regime
55
Pricing Regime
57
Table: OEP Reimbursement Changes, September 2014
59
Pharmaceutical Mark-Ups
59
Table: Hungary - Pharmaceutical Price Build-Up (%)
59
Reimbursement Regime
59
Pricing And Reimbursement Amendments
62
Table: Additional Savings Outlined in Sz-ll K-lm-n 2
62
Hospital Procurement
64
Competitive Landscape
65
Company Profile
72
Gedeon Richter
72
Egis Pharmaceuticals (Servier)
76
Pfizer
80
Novartis
82
Sanofi
84
GlaxoSmithKline
86
Merck & Co
88
Eli Lilly
90
Teva
92
Demographic Forecast
94
Table: Hungary's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
95
Table: Hungary's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
96
Table: Hungary's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
97
Table: Hungary's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
97
Glossary
98
Methodology
100
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
100
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
100
Notes On Methodology
101
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
102
Index Overview
103
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
103
Indicator Weightings
104

The Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Hungary Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Hungary pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Hungary, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hungarian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Hungarian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc