BMI View: Hungary's power sector is well developed, with an extensive national supply grid, including cross-border interconnections, and significant domestic generation and capacity. We expect consumption to grow only slowly over the forecast period and this, along with government measures to keep electricity prices well below the regional norm, is deterring investors from committing to new power projects. With few projects in the pipeline, we expect total generation to increase only incrementally between 2016 and 2025. As such Hungary will remain heavily reliant on nuclear power and natural-gas fired power which together account for almost 75% of domestic generation, with limited renewable capacity.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, National Sources, BMI|
|Generation, Total, TWh||34.025||34.415||34.753||35.045||35.365||35.640||35.967|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||38.1||38.7||39.2||39.8||40.2||40.7||41.2|
|Capacity, Net, MW||9,410.7||9,472.6||9,586.7||9,734.1||9,824.9||9,883.7||9,961.5|
Latest Updates and Structural Trends
Hungary's government has reiterated its commitment to expanding nuclear power capacity via the construction of new reactors at Paks. The works have come under criticism from environmental action groups and neighbouring states such as Austria. The project has also been investigated by the European Commission.
Development of the South Stream gas pipeline may be delayed following news Gazprom has terminated a contract on the construction of a section of the pipeline. The EUR16bn (USD17.3bn) scheme, initially slated to be commissioned by end-2015, was expected to reach full capacity of 63bn cubic metres a year by 2017. The European Commission noted the pipeline project runs counter to the EU law, following which Bulgaria suspended construction of its land until the scheme conforms to the EU requirements.
The project pipeline remains restricted and as such we are maintaining our current forecasts for minimal growth of less than 1% annually in total generation throughout the forecast period, with small gains in nuclear, natural gas and renewables power compensating for declines in oil and coal fired generation.
The Hungary Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Hungary Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Hungary to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Hungary's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).