BMI View: This quarter we have slightly revised our forecast. We continue to expect p ower gener ation to steadily rise o ver the forecast period, from 34.03TWh in 2015 to 36.59 TWh by 2024 . We also expect t hermal energy to remain the single largest component in Hungary ' s power mix, and an expansion of gas-fired electricity will constitute most of the expected rise in output. Meanwhile, consumption of power will rise by from 38.10TWh to 43.07TWh over the same timeframe, underpinned by a steady growth in the construction sector. The major background development will be massive investment in the Paks power station , which will significantly expand production of nuclear power just beyond the ten-year forecast period.
Key Trends And Developments
Plans to modernise the Paks nuclear power plant continue to progress. In May, the Russian state-owned nuclear company Rosatom signed a contract with the Hungarian government to build two reactors at the Paks nuclear power plant in Hungary. The company will set up units 5 and 6 at the plant. The units will feature Rosatom's VVER-1200 reactors, which are expected to have production capacity of 1,200MW each. Russia also provided a loan of up to USD11bn for the project and Hungary aims to repay the loan after the reactors start operating.
At the Riga Summit, which was held in May 2015, Hungary signed a Joint Declaration with Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania, backing the idea of building a gas pipeline that will link Central with South-eastern Europe. Although the memorandum is only a political intention, if the pipeline is built, it will greatly reduce Hungary's dependency from Russia and further boost gas use for energy production.
The Hungary Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Hungary Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Hungary to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Hungary's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).