Hungary Power Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the power.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

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  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Hungary Power Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Hungary has a modern and well developed power infrastructure network, with an extensive national grid and sufficient domestic capacity to meet current demand. We are currently forecasting limited growth in the power sector over the medium term, as artificially low prices and limited consumption growth continue to deter investors. The power sector will therefore continue to be dominated by nuclear power and natural-gas fired power, with limited non-hydropower renewables capacity.

Headline Power Forecasts (Hungary 2015-2021)
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, National Sources, BMI
Generation, Total, TWh 34.090 34.480 34.820 35.110 35.430 35.710 36.030
Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh 38.1 38.7 39.3 39.8 40.2 40.7 41.0
Capacity, Net, MW 9,422.2 9,490.8 9,610.0 9,761.3 9,858.5 9,926.8 10,009.7

Latest Updates and Structural Trends

  • While economic growth in Hungary is expected to gather pace over the medium term, the country is experiencing a short-term fall in industrial output, particularly in the leading autos sector, which will dampen consumption growth.

  • Electricity prices are already artificially low in Hungary and the fall in gas prices will further dampen private investor interest in new gas-fired power plants: heading into the European summer, BMI believes prices could fall further (possibly as low as GBp20/therm) amid global gas oversupply and an influx of LNG cargoes, which are set to depress European hub prices.

  • Works the Paks nuclear power plant remains the main source of capacity growth. A number of suppliers are reportedly positioning themselves to bid for contracts with Rolls- Royce amongst the firms exhibiting at a May 2016 event at the Budapest University of Technology and Economics.

  • There has been limited movement in the power project pipeline and as a result we are maintaining our forecasts for limited annual growth in generation - lingering under 1% for most of the forecast period through to 2020.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Hungary 2015-2021)
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Hungary Snapshot
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Hungary 2014-2019)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Hungary 2020-2025)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
10
Hungary Power Forecast Scenario
11
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast
11
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast
12
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast
14
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
15
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2019)
15
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2020-2025)
16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2019)
17
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2020-2025)
18
Electricity Consumption
18
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2019)
19
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2020-2025)
19
Transmission & Distribution
19
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2019)
20
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2020-2025)
20
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2019)
21
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2020-2025)
21
Industry Risk/Reward Index
22
Regional Risk Reward Index
22
Hungary Power Risk/Reward Index
28
Rewards
28
Risks
28
Market Overview
30
Key Policies And Market Structure
30
Regulation And Competition
30
Pricing
31
Table: Half-yearly electricity and gas prices, second half of year, 2012-14 (EUR per kWh)
31
Hungary Power Projects Database
32
Competitive Landscape
33
MVM
33
MAVIR
33
MOL
33
EdF
34
E
34
RWE
34
Electrabel
35
Company Profile
36
MVM
36
Regional Overview
39
Europe - CEE Power: Affordable Coal To Trump Renewables
39
Table: Turkey - Ambitious Renewables Targets
41
Glossary
43
Table: Glossary Of Terms
43
Methodology
44
Methodology And Sources
44
Industry Forecast Methodology
44
Sources
47
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
47
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
48
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
49

The Hungary Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Hungary Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Hungary to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Hungary's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).