BMI View: The tourism sector in Hungary is well established, and the industry is a valuable contributor to the domestic economy. Supporting infrastructure, particularly in the capital Budapest, is very well developed, offering a broad range of hotel options and easily accessible transport connections. Outside of the capital the market is less developed, offering significant scope for future investment as Hungary develops the reach of tourism to more remote and rural regions. At present we are forecasting steady growth in international arrivals to Hungary, boosting tourism expenditure and hotel and restaurant industry value, though we caution that Hungary's reliance upon its European neighbours for arrivals does create some vulnerability to regional declines.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Total arrivals, '000||10,624.00||12,140.00||14,316.00||15,245.74||16,121.11||16,962.96||17,823.96||18,802.83|
|Total arrivals, '000, % y-o-y||2.6||14.3||17.9||6.5||5.7||5.2||5.1||5.5|
|International tourism receipts, HUFbn||1,469.34||1,775.78||2,259.34||2,486.08||2,648.93||2,783.50||2,926.74||3,166.33|
|International tourism receipts, HUFbn, % y-o-y||5.2||20.9||27.2||10.0||6.6||5.1||5.2||8.2|
|International tourism receipts, USDbn||6.57||7.63||8.09||8.61||9.58||10.76||12.01||12.99|
|International tourism receipts, USDbn, % y-o-y||5.9||16.1||6.0||6.4||11.3||12.3||11.6||8.2|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, HUFbn||429.35||451.91||502.48||506.35||529.13||557.08||586.05||613.64|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, HUFbn, % y-o-y||6.3||5.3||11.2||0.8||4.5||5.3||5.2||4.7|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, USDbn||1.9||1.9||1.8||1.8||1.9||2.2||2.4||2.5|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, USDbn, % y-o-y||7.0||1.1||-7.4||-2.5||9.2||12.5||11.7||4.7|
Key Updates And Forecasts
From 2017, Hungary ' s National Agency For Tourism will be responsible for promoting and developing tourism across the country, with a focus particularly on Tokaj, the Balaton area, Budapest and Sopron. A new tourism strategy is under development and is expected to be released by the end of 2016.
Hungary continues to improve air travel connectivity. Budapest Airlines continues to add new routes, including a flight to Venice, Italy, which will commence in October 2016, meaning that tourists can now travel to and from Budapest from 10 airports in Italy.
We have made a slight upwards revision to our forecasts for international arrivals to Hungary in 2016, with the inbound travel market now forecast to increase by 6.5% over the year to reach a total of 15.2mn arrivals. Slightly slower, though still strong, growth is expected over the remainder of the forecast period through to 2020.
The Hungary Tourism Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.
BMI's Hungary Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Hungarian tourism industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Hungary to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Hungarian tourism market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Hungarian tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Inbound Tourism: Total arrivals (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by region (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 source countries for arrivals.
- Outbound Tourism: Total departures (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 destination countries.
- Travel & Receipts: Methods of travel for arrivals (air, ship, rail) (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for transport (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for travel items (USDbn and growth % y-o-y).
- Hotels: Hotel industry value (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), number of hotels (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of total
BMI’s Tourism Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards.
Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.
This section provides insight into key domestic players in the hotel industry, discussing, for example, the number of hotels, brands, financial data, geographical spread, recent developments and strategies of individual companies.
The Tourism Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reprts instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.