Hungary Tourism Report

Published 20 April 2015

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$1,295.00
Hungary Tourism Report

BMI View: We expect to see higher tourism-related receipts and hotel and restaurant industry value over the next five years as well as investment in the tourism sector and physical infrastructure in particular. However, this growth will be highly depe ndent on the stability of the e urozone and key European source markets, on which Hungary relies for almost 90% of tourist arrivals.

We expect to see healthy growth in Hungary's tourism market over the 2015-2019 period, driven by solid domestic economic growth, and improvements in the wider European region (which represents Hungary's key source market). This will be boosted by the proliferation of low-budget airlines that will encourage additional travellers from countries such as the UK. Health tourism has been an area of growth, and Hungary is reaping the benefits of being well ahead of the pack in the region in terms of medical and spa tourism offerings. Gastro-tourism presents an excellent opportunity given the reputation of Hungary's wine regions and the relatively under-developed state of the tourism and accommodation sectors outside Budapest. The capital dominates the country both economically and in terms of tourism, but there is a great deal more to the country, with tourists able to visit thermal baths, beautiful lakes and other attractive cities. The country has a great deal to offer, but the government needs to take the initiative to spread awareness of the rest of the country outside of Budapest, as well as invest in transport infrastructure (such as the modernisation of the rail network around Lake Balaton, a project started in 2013).

In terms of the accommodation market, there has not been as much concentration from the large hotel chains (with Accor recently selling 46 hotels in the region, and Intercontinental Hotel Group also selling a hotel in Budapest to UAE-based Al Habtoor Group), with larger markets being prioritised. As a result, domestic hoteliers dominate the market. The stable...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Tourism
9
Political
11
Economic
13
Operational Risk
14
Industry Forecast
16
Inbound Travel
17
Table: Inbound Tourism (Hungary 2012-2019)
17
Table: Inbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets by Arrivals '000 (Hungary 2012-2019)
18
Outbound Tourism
19
Table: Outbound Tourism (Hungary 2012-2019)
19
Table: Outbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets by Departures '000 (Hungary 2012-2019)
20
Travel
21
Table: Receipts for Transport and Travel (Hungary 2012-2019)
21
Table: Breakdown of Methods of Tourist Travel (Hungary 2012-2019)
22
Hotels
22
Table: Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value (Hungary 2012-2019)
23
Table: Hotel Accommodation (Hungary 2012-2019)
24
Industry Risk/Reward Index
25
Tourism Risk/Reward Index
25
Table: Central Eastern Europe Tourism Risk/Reward Index
26
Market Overview
28
Competitive Landscape
31
Domestic Hotel Groups
31
International Hotel Groups
33
Global Industry Overview
35
Global Assumptions
38
Global Macro Outlook
38
Table: Global Forecasts, 2014-2019
39
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2014-2017 (% change y-o-y)
40
Developed States
41
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014-2017
42
Emerging Markets
43
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014-2017
45
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2015 And 2016 (%)
46
Demographic Forecast
47
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Hungary 1990-2025)
48
Table: Key Population Ratios (Hungary 1990-2025)
48
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Hungary 1990-2025)
49
Table: Population By Age Group (Hungary 1990-2025)
49
Table: Population By Age Group % (Hungary 1990-2025)
50
Methodology
52
Industry Forecast Methodology
52
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
53
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
55

The Hungary Tourism Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.

BMI's Hungary Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Hungarian tourism industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Hungary to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Hungarian tourism market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Hungarian tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Inbound Tourism: Total arrivals (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by region (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 source countries for arrivals.
  • Outbound Tourism: Total departures (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 destination countries.
  • Travel & Receipts: Methods of travel for arrivals (air, ship, rail) (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for transport (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for travel items (USDbn and growth % y-o-y).
  • Hotels: Hotel industry value (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), number of hotels (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of total

BMI’s Tourism Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards.

Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.

Competitive Landscape

This section provides insight into key domestic players in the hotel industry, discussing, for example, the number of hotels, brands, financial data, geographical spread, recent developments and strategies of individual companies.

Sources
The Tourism Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reprts instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc