BMI View: Hungary has a well- developed tourism industry, particularly in the capital Budapest , which for a long time has been a popular short-break destination for visitors throughout Europe. We expect to see continued growth in international tourism arrivals to Hungary over the course of the forecast period from 2016 to 2020, supported by improving domestic and international transport connections and government investment in wide-reaching marketing campaigns. The country is heavily reliant upon European source markets, which does create vulnerability through over-exposure to potential regional declines, and as such we expect to see a focus over the longer term on expanding travel from source markets further afield, particularly affluent Asian and Middle Eastern markets.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Total arrivals, '000||10,624.00||11,027.71||11,523.96||12,007.97||12,428.25||12,714.51||13,056.07||13,406.80|
|Total arrivals, '000, % y-o-y||2.6||3.8||4.5||4.2||3.5||2.3||2.7||2.7|
|International tourism receipts, HUFbn||1,417.36||1,536.80||1,575.32||1,658.89||1,733.41||1,786.16||1,828.72||1,908.05|
|International tourism receipts, HUFbn, % y-o-y||6.4||8.4||2.5||5.3||4.5||3.0||2.4||4.3|
|International tourism receipts, USDbn||6.34||6.60||5.64||5.67||6.25||6.90||7.50||7.83|
|International tourism receipts, USDbn, % y-o-y||7.0||4.2||-14.6||0.5||10.2||10.4||8.7||4.3|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, HUFbn||373.82||431.77||436.08||448.94||468.87||492.06||515.37||537.33|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, HUFbn, % y-o-y||9.8||15.5||1.0||2.9||4.4||4.9||4.7||4.3|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, USDbn||1.7||1.9||1.6||1.5||1.7||1.9||2.1||2.2|
|Hotel and restaurant industry value, USDbn, % y-o-y||10.5||11.0||-15.8||-1.7||10.2||12.5||11.2||4.3|
Key Updates And Forecasts
Hungary continues to expand the number of international flight connections, facilitating the expansion of the tourism arrivals market. In April 2016 Lufthansa launched its first flights on a new Munich-Debrecen route while Ryanair is also expanding its flights to and from the country. There are also reports that Emirates may soon launch non-stop flights from Budapest direct to the United States.
Hungary is also improving the process of applying for tourism visas for visitors from outside of Europe. In March 2016 the country opened a visa application centre in Bahrain and is reportedly considering introducing visa free travel for special and diplomatic passport holders from the country.
We are maintaining our current forecasts for a 4.2% increase in international tourism arrivals to Hungary in 2016, to a total of just over 12mn. Similar growth is expected over the remainder of the forecast period, providing a boost to tourism related expenditure and hotel industry value between 2016 and 2020.
The Hungary Tourism Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.
BMI's Hungary Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Hungarian tourism industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Hungary to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Hungarian tourism market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Hungarian tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Inbound Tourism: Total arrivals (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by region (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 source countries for arrivals.
- Outbound Tourism: Total departures (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by country (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 destination countries.
- Travel & Receipts: Methods of travel for arrivals (air, ship, rail) (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for transport (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for travel items (USDbn and growth % y-o-y).
- Hotels: Hotel industry value (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), number of hotels (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays (‘000 and growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of total
BMI’s Tourism Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards.
Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.
This section provides insight into key domestic players in the hotel industry, discussing, for example, the number of hotels, brands, financial data, geographical spread, recent developments and strategies of individual companies.
The Tourism Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reprts instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.