India Agribusiness Report

Published 20 July 2015

  • 117 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
India Agribusiness Report

BMI View: We hold a positive view on India 's agribusiness sector , as the country will remain an agricultural powerhouse and is likely to maintain high levels of self-sufficiency for major food crops. Production growth of various commodities will be driven by strong government support and robust demand for manufactured foodstuff s . We see significant growth opportunities in sub-sectors such as dairy, coffee and livestock. However, India will be increasingly vulnerable to exceptional weather phenomen a owing to climate change effects and serious water shortages. Moreover, the country will remain prone to erratic government intervention, which seriously hampers its reputation as an in ternational provider. W e see the partial liberalisation of the sugar industry as a first positive step that will incentivise production growth and investment in the sector.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI

Key Forecasts

  • Wheat production growth to 2018/19: 8.5% to 101.4mn tonnes. Growth will come from increasing yields and improvement in the supply chain. What production will also be supported by demand from the livestock sector.

  • Palm oil consumption growth to 2019: 27.0% to 10.6mn tonnes. Domestic palm oil consumption will be propelled by strong demand for domestic food use, which makes up about 80% of total domestic palm oil demand.

  • Beef & Veal production to 2018/19: 25.0% to 5.1mn tonnes. Growth will be driven by the improvements in breeding techniques, and by the robust expansion of the milk sector. Export demand for Indian beef will also support investment in the sector.

  • BMI agribusiness market value: USD239.5bn in 2015 (up from USD229.8bn in 2014; forecast to grow annually by 5.3% on average from 2015 to 2019).

  • 2015 real GDP growth: 7.6% (up from 7.3% in 2014; predicted to average 7.0% from 2015 to 2019).

  • 2015 consumer price inflation: 5.6% y-o-y ave (down from 6.0% in 2014;...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Grains Outlook
14
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (India 2014-2019)
15
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (India 2014-2019)
15
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (India 2009-2014)
18
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (India 2009-2014)
18
Rice Outlook
20
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (India 2013-2019)
21
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (India 2009-2014)
23
Sugar Outlook
25
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (India 2014-2019)
26
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (India 2009-2014)
33
Dairy Outlook
35
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (India 2014-2019)
36
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (India 2014-2019)
36
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (India 2009-2014)
40
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (India 2009-2014)
41
Livestock Outlook
42
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (India 2014-2019)
43
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (India 2014-2019)
44
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (India 2009-2014)
49
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (India 2009-2014)
49
Coffee Outlook
51
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (India 2014-2019)
53
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (India 2009-2014)
56
Palm Oil Outlook
57
Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (India 2014-2019)
57
Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (India 2009-2014)
61
Featured Analysis
62
Industry Trend Analysis
62
Table: India - June 1-July 8 Monsoon Rainfall In 2015 Along With Production & Irrigation By State
62
Table: India Select Commodities Production And Consumption (2013-2019)
66
Commodity Price Analysis
67
Monthly Softs Strategy
67
Table: India - Monsoon Rainfall, Irrigation And Production In The Main Agricultural States
71
Monthly Grains Strategy
72
Table: Grain Prices With Select Metrics (USc/bushel)
73
Upstream Analysis
75
Asia GM Outlook
75
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use
77
Asia Machinery Outlook
78
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
82
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
86
Downstream Analysis
91
Drink
91
Hot Drinks
91
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (India 2014-2019)
92
Alcoholic Drinks
93
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (India 2014-2019)
95
Soft Drinks
96
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (India 2014-2019)
97
Food
99
Food Consumption
99
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (India 2012-2019)
100
Confectionery
101
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (India 2012-2019)
102
Dairy
103
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (India 2014-2019)
104
Mass Grocery Retail
105
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (India 2014-2019)
107
Competitive Landscape
108
Table: India - Major Agribusiness Companies
108
Demographic Forecast
109
Table: Population Headline Indicators (India 1990-2025)
110
Table: Key Population Ratios (India 1990-2025)
110
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (India 1990-2025)
111
Table: Population By Age Group (India 1990-2025)
111
Table: Population By Age Group % (India 1990-2025)
112
Methodology
114
Industry Forecast Methodology
114
Sector-Specific Methodology
115

The India Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's India Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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