BMI View: We hold a positive view on the outlook for India's agribusiness sector, as the country will remain an agricultural powerhouse and should be able to maintain high levels of self-sufficiency for major food crops. Production growth of various commodities will be driven by strong government support and robust demand growth for manufactured foodstuff. We see significant growth opportunities in sub-sectors such as dairy, coffee and livestock. However, India will be increasingly vulnerable to exceptional weather phenomena and serious water shortages and the country's grain and sugar output will remain highly volatile. This, coupled with erratic government interventions, will often keep domestic supply tight, suggesting India will remain an unstable international provider of grains, sugar and milk powder.
India's government, led by Narendra Modi, has made several announcements regarding agricultural reforms. However, no real tangible progress has been made so far, as the implementation of reforms will take time to unfold. Looking ahead, the government looks committed to improve India's grains marketing system, its supply chain and its agricultural infrastructure.
We continue to believe that, by implementing these reforms, particularly in the field of yields and supply chains, India has the potential to overcome lingering under nutrition problems to become a large and more importantly stable exporter of a large number of commodities. Increasing yields for grains will also allow farmers to diversify their crops and increase production for other, more value-added commodities.
Sugar production growth to 2019/20: -0.1% to 30.2mn tonnes. Inefficiencies in the pricing policy will constrain growth. Output expansion will mainly come from the liberalisation of the market, of which the first signs can be observed.
Palm oil consumption growth to 2020: 31.8% to 11.9mn tonnes. Domestic palm oil consumption will be propelled by strong demand for domestic food use, which makes up about 80% of total domestic palm oil demand.
Beef & veal production to 2019/20: 23.5% to 5.1mn tonnes. Growth will be driven by the improvements in breeding techniques, and by the robust expansion of the milk sector. Export demand for Indian beef will also support investment in the sector.
Agribusiness market value: USD254.7bn in 2016 (up from USD251.0bn in 2015; forecast to grow annually by 5.7% on average from 2016 to 2020).
2016 real GDP growth: 7.2% (down from 7.6% in 2015; predicted to average 6.8% from 2016 to 2020).
2016 consumer price inflation: 5.1% y-o-y ave (same than in 2015; forecast to average 4.5% from 2016 to 2020).
|Strong Growth Ahead|
|India - Agribusiness Market Value|
After two years of adverse weather with weak monsoon rainfall in 2014 and 2015, India's agribusiness sector will recover in 2016 and 2017. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, India's precipitation over the 2016 summer monsoon (June - September) was 3% below the seasonal long-term average, which is considered near normal. The decrease in agricultural production in 2015, coupled with low prices, led to a 7.1% decline in market value for the sector. India initiated a recovery this and will see agribusiness market value expand by 1.5% in 2016 and by a strong 8.4% in 2017.
The country will see agricultural production rebound in the ongoing 2016/17 season, with the stark exception of sugar output as cane fields suffered more than first anticipated from the drought recorded over 2015 and Q116. Sales of farm inputs, such as machinery, have started picking up in Q216 and will continue to recover in the coming quarters. The domestic wheat and sugar market will remain tight in 2016/17 and India will be a net importer of the two commodities this season.
The dairy and livestock sector will record the fastest growth in the coming years. In particular, India's beef sector will continue to be one of the country's agribusiness bright spots despite the rise of nationalistic Hindu sentiment. India specialises in the production of cheap and abundant buffalo meat and will continue to lead the global beef trade in volume, amidst increasing demand for inexpensive meat in Asia and the Middle East. However, its reliance on illegal trade routes to China makes the sector vulnerable to a potential crackdown on smuggling.
The India Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's India Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.