India Agribusiness Report

Published 05 May 2015

  • 137 pages
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$1,295.00
India Agribusiness Report
Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (% of total) (2011-2019)

BMI View: We hold a positive view on India 's agribusiness sector , as the country will remain an agricultural powerhouse and is likely to maintain high levels of self-sufficiency for major food crops. Production growth of various commodities will be driven by strong government support and robust demand for manufactured foodstuff s . We see significant growth opportunities in sub-sectors such as dairy, coffee and livestock. However, India will be increasingly vulnerable to exceptional weather phenomen a owing to climate change effects and serious water shortages. Moreover, the country will remain prone to erratic government intervention, which seriously hampers its reputation as an in ternational provider. W e see the partial liberalisation of the sugar industry as a first positive step that will incentivise production growth and investment in the sector.

Key Forecasts

  • Wheat production growth to 201 8/19 : 8.7 % to 101.6mn tonnes . Growth will come from increasing yields and some probable improvement in the supply chain. What production will also be supported by demand from the livestock sector.

  • Palm oil consumption growth to 201 9 : 2 6.4 % to 10. 5 mn tonnes. Domestic palm oil consumption will be propelled by strong demand for domestic food use, which makes up about 80% of total domestic palm oil demand.

  • Beef and veal production to 201 8/19 : 2 5.0% to 5.1 mn tonnes. Growth will be driven by improvements in breeding techniques, and by the robust expansion of the milk sector. Export demand for Indian beef will also support investment in the sector.

  • FAO agribusiness market value: USD2 39.4 bn in 201 5 (up from USD229.7bn in 2014; forecast to grow annually by 5.4% on average from 2015 to 2019).

  • 2015 real GDP growth: 6.3% (up from 5.6% in 2014; predicted to average 6.6% from 2015 to 2019).

  • 2015 consumer price inflation: 6.3 % y-o-y average (down from 7.7% in...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Industry Forecast
12
Grains Outlook
12
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (India 2013-2018)
13
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (India 2013-2018)
13
Table: India - Monsoon Rainfall, Irrigation And Production In The Main Agricultural States
14
Table: Government Of India Minimum Support Price (MSP), INR/TONNE
15
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (India 2008-2013)
20
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (India 2008-2013)
21
Rice Outlook
22
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (India 2013-2018)
24
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (India 2008-2013)
26
Sugar Outlook
28
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (India 2013-2018)
29
Table: Foreign Investment In The Indian Sugar Milling Industry
34
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (India 2008-2013)
38
Dairy Outlook
40
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (India 2013-2018)
41
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (India 2013-2018)
41
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (India 2008-2013)
48
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (India 2008-2013)
48
Livestock Outlook
50
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (India 2013-2018)
51
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (India 2013-2018)
52
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (India 2008-2013)
57
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (India 2008-2013)
58
Coffee Outlook
60
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (India 2013-2018)
62
Table: India - Major Coffee Players, Shops & Expansion Plans
66
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (India 2008-2013)
68
Palm Oil Outlook
70
Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (India 2013-2018)
70
Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (India 2008-2013)
76
Featured Analysis
78
Agricultural Reform In Asia: Key Changes Ahead
78
Table: China - Ongoing And Future Agricultural Policy Reforms
79
Table: India - Potential Future Agricultural Policy Reforms
81
Commodity Price Analysis
84
Monthly Grains Strategy
84
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
92
Monthly Softs Strategy
92
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
103
Upstream Analysis
104
Asia GM Outlook
104
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use
110
Asia Machinery Outlook
111
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
111
Table: Selected Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
115
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
119
Table: India - Fertiliser Subsidies, INR/kg
123
Downstream Analysis
125
Food
125
Food Consumption
125
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (India 2011-2018)
126
Confectionery
127
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (India 2011-2018)
128
Dairy
129
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (India 2013-2018)
130
Drink
131
Hot Drinks
131
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (India 2013-2018)
132
Alcoholic Drinks
133
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (India 2013-2018)
135
Soft Drinks
136
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (India 2013-2018)
137
Mass Grocery Retail
139
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (India 2013-2018)
140
Regional Overview
141
Table: China - Ongoing And Future Agricultural Policy Reforms
142
Table: ASEAN Economic Community - Winners And Losers In Selected Agribusiness Sectors
143
Competitive Landscape
146
Table: India - Major Agribusiness Companies
146
Demographic Forecast
147
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
148
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
149
Table: India's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
150
Table: India's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
150
Methodology
151
Industry Forecast Methodology
151
Sector-Specific Methodology
152

The India Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's India Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc