India Autos Report

Published 10 August 2015

  • 91 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
India Autos Report

New vehicle sales have got off to a positive start for FY15/16 (April-March). Over the first quarter of the fiscal year, new passenger car (PC) sales were up by 8.57% y-o-y, at 482,332 units, with commercial vehicle (CV) sales up by 3.55% y-o-y, at 146,159 units, according to figures from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM).

However, June itself was something of a disappointment, with new vehicle sales dropping by 0.5% y-o-y, to 217,642 units. This marked the first monthly decline in Indian new vehicle sales since October 2014. Sales of utility vehicles declined 5.9%, while demand for vans fell 7.2%. According to a report in the Economic Times, the temporary closure of car production facilities for maintenance in June contributed to the decline in sales. 'Three major carmakers have shut their factories for annual maintenance that has resulted in this minor fall. The retail sales have been moderate, but the car dispatches from factories affected the overall industry performance in June,' said SIAM president Vikram Kirloskar.

Looking forward, BMI remains positive on the new auto sales outlook for FY15/16, but we are currently targeting 5.9% growth for PC sales over the full year, which will indicate a slight slowing down from the growth rate seen over Q1. For CVs, we are now targeting 4% growth over the full year, in line with the Q1 performance.

Overall, while we acknowledge that India's economy is gaining momentum, our belief is that it will be gradual, and we forecast real GDP growth to come in at 7.6% in FY2015/16 (April-March) (versus 7.3% in FY2014/15), which is less optimistic than the government's projected rate of 8.0-8.5%. Political hurdles to important reforms - such as the amendment of the land acquisition bill -will cap India's growth potential despite a modest pickup in investment owing to an improved business environment and monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

To deal with the positives first, there are signs of...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
14
Operational Risk
16
Industry Forecast
18
Production and Sales
18
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2013-2019)
18
Sales
18
Production
22
Trade
27
Passenger Vehicles
28
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2013-2019)
28
Table: India - Top 10 Best-Selling Brands, 2014
30
Electric Vehicles
32
Commercial Vehicles
33
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2013-2019)
33
Motorcycles
38
Sales
38
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2013-2019)
38
Production
39
Industry Developments
40
Suppliers
44
Macroeconomic Forecast
50
Economic Analysis
50
Table: Agriculture Weakening, Manufacturing & Services Providing Support
52
Table: Economic Activity (India 2010-2019)
55
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
56
Developed States Still Lead
56
Frontier Markets Are A Risky Bet
57
On The Bubble
57
Company Profile
58
E-Bus Boom Carrying BYD To New Heights
58
Hyundai Motor India
61
Maruti Suzuki
64
Tata Motors
68
Bajaj Auto
72
Regional Overview
74
Industry Trend Analysis
74
Replacement Cycle Aids Growth
74
Bigger Markets Lagging
75
Smaller Markets Have Untapped Potential
76
Global Industry Overview
78
1
78
2
79
3
80
4
81
Demographic Forecast
83
Table: Population Headline Indicators (India 1990-2025)
84
Table: Key Population Ratios (India 1990-2025)
84
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (India 1990-2025)
85
Table: Population By Age Group (India 1990-2025)
85
Table: Population By Age Group % (India 1990-2025)
86
Methodology
88
Industry Forecasts
88
Sector-Specific Methodology
89
Sources
89
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
90
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
91

The India Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's India Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in India.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on India to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Indian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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