Indian auto sales (sum total of passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle sales) rose by 2.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the year ending March 2015, to 3,216,072 units, according to figures from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM). Breaking down the headline figure, passenger vehicle sales rose by 3.9% y-o-y, to 2,601,111 units. However, commercial vehicle sales dropped by 2.8% y-o-y, to 614,961 units.
Looking forward, BMI believes that the new autos sales outlook for FY15/16 is brighter than was the case in FY14/15. We are targeting 5.9% sales growth for the Indian new vehicle market in FY15/16, with new autos sales set to benefit from an improving economic backdrop. BMI's Country Risk team recently revised up its FY15/16 GDP growth forecast to 7.6% (from 7.3% previously). Overall, we believe that the economic reform drive in India continues to gather pace, which will help to spur investment.
Moreover, we believe that the start of a monetary easing cycle in India (two 25 basis point cuts were made to interest rates in January and March 2015) will help to lift credit growth in the country, which bodes well for infrastructure projects that have stalled due to a lack of funds. With inflation likely to recede over the medium term, we expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to ease interest rates by a total of 50bps to 7.00% by March 2016, as it attempts to further support economic growth. This lower interest rate environment should also lead to lower rates for auto loans, boosting demand from Indian consumers reliant on car financing to make new vehicle purchases over the coming 12 months.
One challenge facing the auto sector at the start of FY15/16 is the impact of the January 2015 decision by the government to end the tax breaks offered to the auto sector when it was struggling in FY13/14. This means that the excise taxes on small cars, motorcycles, trucks and buses have increased to 12% from 8% previously, while the levy on sports utility vehicles...
The India Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's India Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in India.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on India to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Indian automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Indian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.