BMI View: W e believe that India's defence ambitions will continue to face challenges over 2015 . That said, the increase of the foreign inves tment cap to 49% from 26% s hould boost the defence industrial base. India's security risk is medium given India's issues with transborder and domestic terrorist groups and particularly in light of the growing prevalence of international terrorism . BMI highlights the corruption probe into the VVIP helicopter deal has the potential to complicate further other procurement deals in India.
India is concerned about the broad gap in its military budget compared to that of China's, and we expect that there will not be a huge increase in the budget due to constrained national economic conditions. The 12% y-o-y increase announced in July 2014 will mostly be dedicated to paying off past contracts, leaving little for the purchase of new equipment. Furthermore, India appears to be diversifying its defence partnerships away from its traditionally Russian ally. The Defence Ministry may also increasingly look to domestic defence hardware and systems manufacturers to meet production needs in line with 'Make in India' platform championed by newly elected Prime Minister Modi, who took office in November 2014.
While, India remains the world's largest importer of military equipment, BMI expects the rate of growth in imports to slow over the coming years. Newly elected Defence Minister Parrikar's has promised transparency in a department blighted by corruption, which BMI believes will be key to boosting efficiency and streamlining defence procurement policies. In addition, India appears to be adopting a strategy similar to that of other emerging economies, which is to enter into joint ventures in the hope of acquiring technology and strengthening the industrial base. BMI thinks India's defence sector now has increased potential to attract more foreign investment as a result of the increase of the foreign...
The India Defence & Security Report features BMI Research's independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's India Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Indian defence and security industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on India to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Indian defence and security market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
Global and Regional Political Outlooks
A strategic overview of the world’s major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict, or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world’s ‘wild card’ low-probability high-impact risks.
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Defence Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and USDbn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure per capita (USD); defence budget (local currency and USDbn).
- Armed Forces (to 2012): Manpower available for military service, manpower fit for militaryservice, army personnel, navy personnel,air force personnel, total armed forces, (‘000) (% population).
- Arms Trade: Arms and ammunition exports and imports (USDmn); bombs, grenades and missiles exports and imports (USDmn); revolver and pistol exports and imports (USDmn); weapons excluding guns and swords exports and imports (USDmn).
Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI’s heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s proprietary Security Risk Indices provide investors with a reliable and country-comparable guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst’s latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our Country Risk expertise, we assess the state’s vulnerability to a serious, or prolonged, terrorist campaign.
Armed Forces Spending/ Expenditure
The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries. The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting the Americas, along with potential risks in the coming year.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Defence & Security Market reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.