BMI View: We forecast strong growth for India ' s construction and infrastructure sector, driven by a rapidly increasing project pipeline across all sectors. While the Modi administration aims for timelier execution of projects to boost investor confidence, delays and cost overruns present a major downside risk to our positive outlook.
Latest Updates & Structural Trends
India's construction sector will expand throughout our forecast period up to 2025, posting 6.4% real growth in 2016 and averaging annual growth of 6.6% and 6.4% over our five-year and ten-year forecast period respectively. The residential and non-residential sector will record the highest average growth, driven by industrial and commercial construction.
Transport sector growth will be supported by road and rail projects, with an increased use of public-private partnerships, while expansion of the energy & utilities sector will be buoyed by efforts to diversify the power supply.
While coal will dominate the energy mix, the government is eager to diversify its power base as electricity consumption continues to rise. This is illustrated by a scheme launched by the Indian Ministry of New and Renewable Energy in June 2016 to set up 1GW of grid-linked wind power parks.
The increasing attractiveness of the Indian solar industry has encouraged significant investment into the market and we expect this trend to continue supported by an increasing project pipeline.
|e/f=BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Reserve Bank of India, BMI|
|Construction industry value, INRbn||9,592.90||10,666.14||11,869.37||13,147.53||14,562.80||16,150.51|
|Construction Industry Value, Real Growth, % y-o-y||-1.77||6.39||6.48||6.37||6.76||6.90|
|Construction Industry Value, % of GDP||7.8||7.7||7.7||7.7||7.7||7.7|
India comes fifth out of 21 countries in our Asia Pacific RRI, with an overall score of 64.6 out of 100. This is a significant improvement from the eighth position in the previous quarter.
India will see robust growth in terms of construction industry value, giving the country high scores for growth levels and value of the industry over the next few years. All of this gives India the highest Industry Rewards score in the region (77.5 - followed by China that has a score of 72.5).
While regulatory challenges will persist, with the country's fragmented administrative structure, gradual reforms to improve the investment environment will remain a top priority of the Modi administration.
|Risk/Reward Index||Rewards||Industry Rewards||Country Rewards||Risks||Industry Risks||Country Risks|
The India Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's India Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indian infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for India to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Indian infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Indian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.