India Mining Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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India Mining Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: India's mining sector will experience solid growth, primarily boosted by the country's positive reforms and vast mineral reserves. Despite this, the sector will continue to face challenges due to the country's i nadequate operating environment, mining royalties and low metals price s , which will prevent India from reaching its full growth potential.

India - Mining Industry Value Forecast
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: USGS, UN Data, BMI
Mining Industry Value, USDbn 22.00 23.40 26.20 29.40 32.60 35.80
Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y -15.38 6.50 11.90 12.36 11.00 9.64

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

  • India will continue to suffer from a persistent coal deficit over the coming years although the country possesses one of the world's largest coal reserves and has significant production growth potential. We forecast India's coal output to grow from 753mn tonnes (mnt) in 2016 to 1,014mnt in 2020, posting average annual growth of 7.6% during 2016-2020, a sizeable acceleration from an average growth of 4.5% annually during 2011-2015. This is because the Indian government has made great progress in improving coal mine production and coal offtake in recent quarters.

  • We forecast India's iron ore output to grow from 132.9mnt in 2016 to 164.4mnt in 2020. This represents an average annual growth of 5.0% during 2016-2020, higher than the average contraction of 9.1% y-o-y over 2011-2015, following mining bans in the three largest iron-ore producing states of Goa, Odisha and Karnataka, which have since been lifted. Although the passing of the Mines & Minerals Development and Regulation Act will support India's iron ore output growth, weak iron ore prices will limit the sector growth outlook. We forecast iron ore prices to average USD48.0/tonne over 2016-2020, significantly lower than USD115.0/tonne during 2011-2015. This is due to oversupply from Australian miners and weakened Chinese demand for iron ore.

  • We forecast India's zinc output to grow from 902 thousand tonnes (kt) in 2016 to 1,297kt in 2020. This represents an average annual growth of 9.3% during 2016-2020, significantly above the average 3.9% y-o-y growth over 2011-2015. We expect zinc prices to average USD1,750/tonne over 2016 and USD1,850/tonne over 2017. Beyond 2016, we expect prices to gradually increase due to our forecast of deepening refined metal deficits over the coming years. We forecast prices to average USD1,874/tonne during 2016-2020, below the annual average of USD2,044/tonne during 2011-2015.

  • In March 2016, India's Ministry of Mines increased the lease area for mining of bauxite from 10 square kilometers to 50 square kilometers in the state of Odisha, following its January 2015 executive order to enable bauxite mining licenses to be awarded via auctions, replacing the old system where licenses were issued at the discretion of provincial and federal governments. We forecast Indian bauxite production to grow from 22.8mnt in 2016 to 43.4mnt in 2020, averaging an annual growth rate of 17.7% during 2016-2020, significantly higher than the annual average 2.0% growth over 2011-2015. India is the world's sixth-largest bauxite producer, at 7.6% of global output in 2015. Historically, bauxite production in the country has tracked aluminum output closely.

  • India's mining sector will continue to be dominated by state-owned companies or public-sector undertakings (PSUs) including National Aluminum Corp, Steel Authority of India, National Mineral Development Corp and Coal India Ltd. According to the US Geological Survey, PSUs contribute about 85% of India's total value of mineral production and are the main producers of key commodities such as aluminum, coal, copper, gold and iron ore.

  • While growing domestic demand for commodities will incentivise state-owned miners to expand production, we believe that India's poor operating environment will continue to restrict growth in the mining sector. A spate of bureaucratic and regulatory hurdles will remain major challenges for miners to grapple with over the coming quarters. For instance, the difficulties in land acquisition and the securing of environmental clearances have led to a series of mining projects being delayed over the past year. Vedanta Resources was forced to put its bauxite mining project in Odisha on hold due to fierce protests by the local community. A bright spot, however, is Prime Minister Modi's passage of the Coal Mines (Special Provisions) Bill in March 2015 and reforms made to Coal India, which has helped to boost coal production.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: India - Mining Industry Value Forecast
7
Latest Developments & Structural Trends
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Bauxite: Government Support To Boost Growth
11
Latest Developments
11
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (India 2015-2020)
12
Table: India - Bauxite Projects
12
Structural Trends
12
Iron Ore: Removal Of Export Taxes To Revive Goan Shipments
16
Latest Developments
16
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (India 2012-2020)
16
Table: India - Selected Iron Ore Projects
17
Structural Trends
18
Zinc: Steady Growth Ahead
22
Latest Developments
22
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (India 2012-2020)
22
Table: India - Select Zinc Mining Projects
23
Structural Trends
23
Coal: Government Target To Fall Short
27
Latest Developments
27
Table: Coal Production Forecast (India 2014-2020)
27
Table: India - Select Coal Mine Projects
27
Structural Trends
28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
36
Risk/Reward Index
36
Rewards
36
Industry Rewards
36
Country Rewards
36
Risks
36
Industry Risks
36
Country Risks
37
Asia Risk/Reward Index
37
Key Takeaways
37
Latest Revisions
38
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index
39
Regulatory Development
40
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis
41
Commodities Forecast
45
Commodities Outlook
45
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
45
Competitive Landscape
46
Table: India - Select Listed Mining Companies
48
Company Profile
49
Coal India Ltd (CIL)
49
Table: Coal India Ltd - Key Financial Data
52
Hindustan Copper
53
Table: Hindustan Copper - Key Financial Data
56
NMDC
57
Table: NMDC - Key Financial Data
60
Global Company Strategy - Vedanta Resources - Q3 2016
61
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts
63
Latest Financial Results
65
Company Strategy
66
Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data
68
Regional Overview
69
Asia Overview
69
Slowing Iron Ore Production
69
Indian Coal Consumption To Outperform
70
China & India To Lead In Outbound Investment
71
Indonesian Ban Moderation Ahead
72
Chinese Coal & Steel Sectors To Consolidate Slowly
74
Methodology
75
Industry Forecast Methodology
75
Sources
76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
77
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
78

The India Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's India Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in India.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on India to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in India's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.