BMI View: India's mining sector will experience solid growth, primarily boosted by the country's positive re forms and vast mineral reserves. Despite this, the sector will continue to face challenges due to the country's i nadequate operating environment, mining royalties and low metals price s , which will prevent India from reaching its full growth potential.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: USGS, UN Data, BMI|
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn||22.00||23.40||26.20||29.40||32.60||35.80|
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y||-15.38||6.50||11.90||12.36||11.00||9.64|
Latest Developments & Structural Trends
India will continue to suffer from a persistent coal deficit over the coming years although the country possesses one of the world's largest coal reserves and has significant production growth potential. We forecast India's coal output to grow from 753mn tonnes (mnt) in 2016 to 1,014mnt in 2020, posting average annual growth of 7.6% during 2016-2020, a sizeable acceleration from an average growth of 4.5% annually during 2011-2015. This is because the Indian government has made great progress in improving coal mine production and coal offtake in recent quarters.
We forecast India's iron ore output to grow from 132.9mnt in 2016 to 164.4mnt in 2020. This represents an average annual growth of 5.0% during 2016-2020, higher than the average contraction of 9.1% y-o-y over 2011-2015, following mining bans in the three largest iron-ore producing states of Goa, Odisha and Karnataka, which have since been lifted. Although the passing of the Mines & Minerals Development and Regulation Act will support India's iron ore output growth, weak iron ore prices will limit the sector growth outlook. We forecast iron ore prices to average USD48.0/tonne over 2016-2020, significantly lower than USD115.0/tonne during 2011-2015. This is due to oversupply from Australian miners and weakened Chinese demand for iron ore.
We forecast India's zinc output to grow from 902 thousand tonnes (kt) in 2016 to 1,297kt in 2020. This represents an average annual growth of 9.3% during 2016-2020, significantly above the average 3.9% y-o-y growth over 2011-2015. We expect zinc prices to average USD1,900/tonne over 2016 and USD2,050/tonne over 2017. Beyond 2016, we expect prices to gradually increase due to our forecast of deepening refined metal deficits over the coming years. This would result in a higher average price of USD2,076/tonne during 2016-2020, compared to the annual average of USD2,044/tonne during 2011-2015.
In March 2016, India's Ministry of Mines increased the lease area for mining of bauxite from 10 square kilometers to 50 square kilometers in the state of Odisha, following its January 2015 executive order to enable bauxite mining licenses to be awarded via auctions, replacing the old system where licenses were issued at the discretion of provincial and federal governments. We forecast Indian bauxite production to grow from 22.8mnt in 2016 to 43.4mnt in 2020, averaging an annual growth rate of 17.7% during 2016-2020, significantly higher than the annual average 2.0% growth over 2011-2015. India is the world's sixth-largest bauxite producer, at 7.8% of global output in 2015. Historically, bauxite production in the country has tracked aluminum output closely.
India's mining sector will continue to be dominated by state-owned companies or public-sector undertakings (PSUs) including National Aluminum Corp, Steel Authority of India, National Mineral Development Corp and Coal India Ltd. According to the US Geological Survey, PSUs contribute about 85% of India's total value of mineral production and are the main producers of key commodities such as aluminum, coal, copper, gold and iron ore.
While growing domestic demand for commodities will incentivise state-owned miners to expand production, we believe that India's poor operating environment will continue to restrict growth in the mining sector. A spate of bureaucratic and regulatory hurdles will remain major challenges for miners to grapple with over the coming quarters. For instance, the difficulties in land acquisition and the securing of environmental clearances have led to a series of mining projects being delayed over the past year. Vedanta Resources was forced to put its bauxite mining project in Odisha on hold due to fierce protests by the local community. A bright spot, however, is Prime Minister Modi's passage of the Coal Mines (Special Provisions) Bill in March 2015 and reforms made to Coal India, which has helped to boost coal production.
The India Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's India Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in India.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on India to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in India's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
- Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
- Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
- Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.
BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis
Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.