India Mining Report

Published 21 May 2015

  • 96 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
India Mining Report

BMI View: India's inadequate operating environment will continue to hamper growth in the mining sector. Despite positive regulatory ref orms, it is unlikely that the domestic coal deficit will be reduced anytime soon. India's new mining ordinance will help bolster iron ore production growth, however, the low ore price environment coupled with higher royalties will dampen the rebound in iron ore production.

While growing domestic demand for commodities will incentivise state-owned miners to expand production, we believe that India's poor operating environment will continue to restrict growth in the mining sector. A spate of bureaucratic and regulatory hurdles will remain major challenges for miners to grapple with over the coming quarters. For instance, the difficulties in land acquisition and the securing of environmental clearances have led to a series of mining projects being delayed over the past year. Vedanta Resources was forced to put its bauxite mining project in Odisha on hold due to fierce protests by the local community. A bright spot, however is Prime Minister Modi's passage of the Coal Mines (Special Provisions) Bill in March 2015 and reforms made to Coal India, which has helped to boost coal production.

We believe the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will continue to implement positive reforms to revive economic growth over the medium term. The party's track record of pro-business dealings could bring about an improved operating climate in the mining sector.

Although India holds one of the world's largest coal reserves and has significant production growth potential, the country will continue to suffer from a persistent coal deficit over the coming years. Even though the government has made great progress in improving coal mine production and coal off-take, power shortages and strikes by coal unions highlight the need for the government to implement effective reforms. India's coal sector is rife with theft and corruption and hampered by...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
12
Bauxite: Ordinance To Boost Production
12
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (India 2014-2019)
15
Coal: Despite Reforms, Domestic Difficulties To Hamper Growth
15
Table: Coal Production Forecast (India 2015-2019)
23
Iron Ore: Subdued Growth Ahead
24
Table: India - New Iron Ore Projects
26
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (India 2014-2019)
27
Zinc: HZL To Lift Growth
28
Table: India - Select Zinc Mining Projects
29
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (India 2014-2019)
30
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
31
India - Risk/Reward Index
31
Rewards
31
Industry Rewards
31
Country Rewards
31
Risks
32
Industry Risks
32
Country Risks
32
Table: India - Mining Industry Value & Production Forecasts
33
Asia Risk/Reward Index
33
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index
37
Regulatory Development
38
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis
39
Commodities Forecast
43
Commodity Strategy
43
Ferrous Metals
43
Iron Ore: Price To Remain Under Pressure In 2015-2016
43
Steel: Subdued Prices Until 2017
45
Non-Ferrous Metals
48
Copper: Subdued Outlook, Despite Recent Rally
48
Lead: Prices Weakness To Continue
50
Nickel: Subdued Prices Due To Weak Demand Growth
51
Tin: Supply Deficits To Underpin Rally In Tin Prices
52
Zinc: Positive Multi-Year Outlook, But Increasing Risks In Months Ahead
53
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
55
Competitive Landscape
56
Table: India - Select Listed Mining Companies
57
Company Profile
58
Coal India Ltd (CIL)
58
Table: Coal India Ltd - Key Financial Data
61
Hindustan Copper
62
Table: Hindustan Copper-Supply Chain Analysis
65
Table: Hindustan Copper - Key Financial Data
65
NMDC
66
Table: NMDC- Supply Chain Analysis
68
Table: NMDC - Key Financial Data
69
Global Company Strategy - Vedanta Resources - Q3 2015
70
Latest Financial Results
73
Company Strategy
73
Table: Vedanta Resources - Supply Chain Analysis
74
Company Details
75
Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data
76
Regional Overview
77
Continued Domination Of Iron Ore Production
77
Indian Coal Consumption To Outperform
78
Table: Less Reliance On Coal
80
Indonesian Ban To Continue
80
Global Industry Overview
82
Global Overview
82
2
85
3
86
4
88
5
90
Methodology
92
Industry Forecast Methodology
92
Sources
93
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
94
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
95

The India Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's India Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in India.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on India to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in India's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc