BMI View: India's oil and gas production outlook is heavily bearish, with rapid decline rates and a narrow project pipeline weighing down growth. Incremental reform of the country's fiscal and regulatory regime, alongside progressive price liberalisation, offers risks to the upside. However, further reform will be needed to unlock exploration and development in the most prospective but hard-to-access areas. The outlook on the refining sector remains broadly bullish, supported by strong forecast consumption growth, supportive government policies and continued market deregulation.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||871.8||845.7||827.1||808.8||798.1||814.5||807.3|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||34.0||33.0||32.0||31.0||30.1||29.5||28.9|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||53.3||52.3||54.9||58.2||61.7||65.1||68.7|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||4,780.3||4,855.9||4,904.4||4,953.5||5,027.8||5,027.8||5,052.9|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||3,654.8||3,946.5||4,183.8||4,414.5||4,658.0||4,901.0||5,156.7|
Key trends and latest updates for the Indian oil & gas sector are:
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government is enacting incremental reform to improve the country's wider business environment. Key reforms include a streamlining of bureaucratic procedure and an increase in companies' operational flexibilities.
The government has also enacted various domestic pricing reforms, including an increase in the domestic gas price cap and the liberalisation of diesel prices.
Unconventional and deepwater resources, which account for the bulk of the prospective resource base, are subject to a separate pricing formula, which has yet to be determined. Interest in the NELP-X licensing round rests heavily on how this formula is calculated.
While fiscal and regulatory reforms offer upside risk to exploration and production, major downside risks remain. India has a relatively strong record in terms of policy formation, but often struggles in the implementation.
Changes in the licensing terms from a profit sharing to a revenue sharing structure could dissuade some international oil companies from investing. A revenue sharing contract poses higher risk and entails a significantly longer period of cost recovery.
A sharp drop in the price of crude may also dampen interest in the round, straining the economic viability of the more expensive unconventional and deepwater developments.
The downstream sector is set for strong growth, supported by falling subsidisation, domestic price liberalisation, rapidly rising domestic demand and lower crude feedstock costs.
The India Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for India including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's India Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for India to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indian oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Indian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.