India Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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India Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: India's oil and gas production outlook is heavily bearish, with rapid decline rates and a narrow project pipeline weighing down growth. Incremental reform of the country's fiscal and regulatory regime, alongside progressive price liberalisation, offers risks to the upside. However, further reform will be needed to unlock exploration and development in the most prospective but hard-to-access areas. The outlook on the refining sector remains broadly bullish, supported by strong forecast consumption growth, supportive government policies and continued market deregulation.

Headline Forecasts (India 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 871.8 845.7 827.1 808.8 798.1 814.5 807.3
Dry natural gas production, bcm 34.0 33.0 32.0 31.0 30.1 29.5 28.9
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 53.3 52.3 54.9 58.2 61.7 65.1 68.7
Refined products production, 000b/d 4,780.3 4,855.9 4,904.4 4,953.5 5,027.8 5,027.8 5,052.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 3,654.8 3,946.5 4,183.8 4,414.5 4,658.0 4,901.0 5,156.7
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Key trends and latest updates for the Indian oil & gas sector are:

  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government is enacting incremental reform to improve the country's wider business environment. Key reforms include a streamlining of bureaucratic procedure and an increase in companies' operational flexibilities.

  • The government has also enacted various domestic pricing reforms, including an increase in the domestic gas price cap and the liberalisation of diesel prices.

  • Unconventional and deepwater resources, which account for the bulk of the prospective resource base, are subject to a separate pricing formula, which has yet to be determined. Interest in the NELP-X licensing round rests heavily on how this formula is calculated.

  • While fiscal and regulatory reforms offer upside risk to exploration and production, major downside risks remain. India has a relatively strong record in terms of policy formation, but often struggles in the implementation.

  • Changes in the licensing terms from a profit sharing to a revenue sharing structure could dissuade some international oil companies from investing. A revenue sharing contract poses higher risk and entails a significantly longer period of cost recovery.

  • A sharp drop in the price of crude may also dampen interest in the round, straining the economic viability of the more expensive unconventional and deepwater developments.

  • The downstream sector is set for strong growth, supported by falling subsidisation, domestic price liberalisation, rapidly rising domestic demand and lower crude feedstock costs.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (India 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Upstream Projects
18
Table: Key Upstream Projects In India
18
Upstream Production - Oil
22
Latest Updates
22
Structural Trends
22
Table: Oil Production (India 2014-2019)
25
Table: Oil Production (India 2020-2025)
26
Upstream Production - Gas
27
Latest Updates
27
Structural Trends
27
Table: India's Shale-Rich Basins
30
Table: Gas Production (India 2014-2019)
31
Table: Gas Production (India 2020-2025)
31
Refining
32
Latest Updates
32
Structural Trends
32
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (India 2014-2019)
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (India 2020-2025)
34
Refined Fuels Consumption
35
Latest Updates
35
Structural Trends
35
Table: Refined Products Consumption (India 2014-2019)
39
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (India 2020-2025)
39
Gas Consumption
40
Latest Updates
40
Structural Trends
40
Table: Gas Consumption (India 2014-2019)
43
Table: Gas Consumption (India 2020-2025)
43
Trade - Oil
44
Latest Updates
44
Structural Trends
44
Crude Oil
44
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (India 2014-2020)
46
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (India 2020-2025)
47
Refined Fuels
47
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (India 2014-2019)
48
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (India 2020-2025)
49
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
50
Latest Updates
50
Structural Trends
50
Table: LNG Supply Deals
52
Table: Gas Net Exports (India 2014-2019)
52
Table: Gas Net Exports (India 2020-2025)
53
Industry Risk Reward Index
54
Asia - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
54
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Persistent Oil Price Weakness Underpins Bearish Outlook
55
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
55
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Projection For Weaker Economic Growth Undermines India's Scores
58
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
58
India - Risk/Reward Index
60
India Upstream Index - Overview
60
India Upstream Index - Rewards
60
India Upstream Index - Risks
60
India Downstream Index - Overview
60
Market Overview
61
Energy Market Overview
61
Regulatory Environment
61
Licensing Regime
61
Table: MPSC Main Licensing Terms
61
Fiscal Regime
62
Table: MPSC Main Fiscal Terms
62
Licensing Rounds
62
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
63
Oil Refineries
63
Table: India Operational Oil Refineries
63
Table: India - Crude Oil Pipelines
64
Table: India - Refined Products Pipelines
65
Table: India - LPG Pipelines
66
LNG Terminals
67
Table: LNG Terminals In India
67
Table: India - Natural Gas Pipelines
68
Competitive Landscape
69
Competitive Landscape Summary
69
Table: Key Players - India Oil & Gas Sector
71
Table: Key Upstream Players
71
Table: Key Downstream Players
71
Company Profile
73
BPCL
73
Cairn India
79
Essar Oil
86
GAIL
91
GSPC
97
HPCL
101
IOC
106
Oil India
112
ONGC
118
Petronet LNG
128
Reliance Industries
132
Other Summaries
140
Regional Overview
146
Industry Trend Analysis
146
Glossary
154
Table: Glossary Of Terms
154
Methodology
156
Industry Forecast Methodology
156
Source
158
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
158
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
160
Table: Weighting
161

The India Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for India including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's India Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for India to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.