India Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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India Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Despite incremental improvements in the country's licensing and regulatory regime, India's oil and gas production outlook remains comparatively bearish. Small field developments will buoy production in the mid-term, but are insufficient to reverse a longer-term trend of decline. Low domestic gas prices and weak international crude prices pose major headwinds to growth and will continue to disincentivise investment in the upstream. Prospects in the downstream segment are better, due to a strong fuels consumption outlook, supportive government policy and continued price deregulations.

Headline Forecasts (India 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 875.6 871.8 845.7 834.7 823.6 812.5 801.9
Dry natural gas production, bcm 36.0 34.0 33.0 33.9 40.3 44.7 44.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 51.4 53.8 56.0 58.8 61.9 66.2 70.5
Refined products production, 000b/d 4,771.3 4,780.3 4,855.9 4,904.4 4,953.5 5,027.8 5,078.0
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 3,515.1 3,654.8 3,946.5 4,152.3 4,352.3 4,579.3 4,818.2
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 51.00 53.00 55.00 60.00

Key trends and latest updates for the Indian oil & gas sector are:

  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government is enacting incremental reform to improve the country's wider business environment. Key reforms include a streamlining of bureaucratic procedure and an increase in companies' operational flexibilities.

  • The government has also enacted various domestic pricing reforms, including an increase in the domestic gas price cap and the liberalisation of diesel prices.

  • Unconventional and deepwater resources, which account for the bulk of the prospective resource base, are subject to a separate pricing formula, which has yet to be determined. Interest in the NELP-X licensing round rests heavily on how this formula is calculated.

  • While fiscal and regulatory reforms offer upside risk to exploration and production, major downside risks remain. India has a relatively strong record in terms of policy formation, but often struggles in the implementation.

  • Changes in the licensing terms from a profit sharing to a revenue sharing structure could dissuade some international oil companies from investing. A revenue sharing contract poses higher risk and entails a significantly longer period of cost recovery.

  • A sharp drop in the price of crude may also dampen interest in the round, straining the economic viability of the more expensive unconventional and deepwater developments.

  • The downstream sector is set for strong growth, supported by falling subsidisation, domestic price liberalisation, rapidly rising domestic demand and lower crude feedstock costs.

BMI Industry View
9
Table: Headline Forecasts (India 2013-2019)
9
SWOT
11
Oil & Gas SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
13
Upstream Exploration
13
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (India 2013-2018)
13
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (India 2019-2024)
13
Upstream Projects
20
Table: Key Upstream Projects In India
20
Upstream Production - Oil
24
Table: Oil Production (India 2013-2018)
24
Table: Oil Production (India 2019-2024)
24
Upstream Production - Gas
29
Table: Gas Production (India 2013-2018)
29
Table: Gas Production (India 2019-2024)
29
Table: India's Shale-Rich Basins
33
Refining
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (India 2013-2018)
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (India 2019-2024)
34
Refined Fuels Consumption
37
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (India 2013-2018)
37
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (India 2019-2024)
37
Gas Consumption
42
Table: Gas Consumption (India 2013-2018)
42
Table: Gas Consumption (India 2019-2024)
42
Trade - Oil
45
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (India 2013-2018)
45
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (India 2019-2024)
45
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (India 2013-2018)
47
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (India 2019-2024)
48
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (India 2013-2018)
49
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (India 2019-2024)
50
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
51
Table: Gas Net Exports (India 2013-2018)
51
Table: Gas Net Exports (India 2019-2024)
52
Table: LNG Supply Deals
54
Industry Risk Reward Index
55
Table: Asia: Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
55
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Sustained Low Oil Prices Weaken Production Outlook
56
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
56
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Political Uncertainties Undercut Demand Growth Outlook
59
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
59
India - Risk/Reward Index
61
India Upstream Index - Overview
61
India Upstream Index - Rewards
61
India Upstream Index - Risks
61
India Downstream Index - Overview
62
Market Overview
63
India Energy Market Overview
63
Overview/State Role
63
Licensing, Regulation And Taxes
63
Table: Oil And Gas Royalty Rates
64
Licensing Rounds
64
Table: Shale Gas Resource Potential
65
Government Policy
68
International Energy Relations
68
India Oil And Gas Infrastructure
70
Oil Refineries
70
Table: Operational Indian Refineries
70
Table: Summary Of New Forecast Capacity
72
Table: Other Outlined Refinery Expansion And Modernisation Projects - Not Forecast
73
Oil Storage Facilities
73
Service Stations
74
Oil Pipelines
74
Table: India - Crude Oil Pipelines
74
Table: India - Refined Products Pipelines
75
Table: India - LPG Pipelines
76
LNG Terminals
76
Table: LNG Terminals In India
77
Gas Storage Facilities
78
Gas Pipelines
78
Table: India - Natural Gas Pipelines
78
Table: Pipelines Outlined Under The 12th Five-Year Plan
79
Competitive Landscape
82
Competitive Landscape Summary
82
Table: Key Players - India Oil & Gas Sector
84
Table: Key Upstream Players
84
Table: Key Downstream Players
84
Company Profile
85
Bharat Petroleum Corporation
85
Cairn India
91
Essar Oil
98
Gas Authority Of India
103
GSPC
110
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation
114
Indian Oil Corporation
119
Oil And Natural Gas Corporation
125
Oil India Ltd
134
Petronet LNG
141
Reliance Industries
145
Other Summaries
154
Regional Overview
160
Asia Oil And Gas Regional Overview
160
Global Industry Overview
165
Global Energy Market Overview
165
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
165
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
168
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
169
Appendix
171
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
171
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
171
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
172
Asia - Regional Appendix
173
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
173
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
174
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
175
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
176
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
177
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
178
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
179
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
180
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
181
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
182
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
183
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
184
India - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
185
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (India 2013-2018)
185
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (India 2019-2024)
185
India - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
186
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (India 2013-2018)
186
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (India 2019-2024)
187
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (India 2013-2018)
188
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (India 2019-2024)
190
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (India 2013-2018)
191
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (India 2019-2024)
192
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (India 2013-2018)
193
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (India 2019-2024)
193
Glossary
194
Table: Glossary Of Terms
194
Methodology
196
Industry Forecast Methodology
196
Source
198
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
198
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
200
Table: Weighting
201

The India Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for India including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's India Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for India to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.