India Oil & Gas Report

Published 16 June 2015

  • 203 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
India Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Continued regulatory reform is unlocking marginal and stranded resources, offering upside to India's mid-term production outlook. However, pricing remains insufficient to stimulate investment in the country's most prospective offshore and unconventional acreage, undermining a more sustainable growth in output. The outlook on the downstream sector is broadly bullish, supported by ongoing fuel price liberalisation, lower-cost crude feedstock and an expanding market domestically.

Headline Forecasts (India 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 884.5 886.1 902.1 890.3 878.4 890.2 892.3
Dry natural gas production, bcm 40.6 40.9 39.5 40.6 48.3 53.6 53.2
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 51.4 53.8 56.0 58.8 61.9 66.2 70.5
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 3,540.7 3,682.3 3,860.9 4,015.3 4,095.6 4,259.5 4,387.2
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 3,521.1 3,588.8 3,768.6 3,957.5 4,156.0 4,405.8 4,670.8

The main trends and developments we highlight for the Indian oil & gas sector are:

  • Narendra Modi's government is enacting incremental reform to improve the country's wider business environment. Key reforms include a streamlining of bureaucratic procedure and an increase in companies' operational flexibilities.

  • The government has also enacted various domestic pricing reforms, including an increase in the domestic gas price cap and the liberalisation of diesel prices.

  • Unconventional and deepwater resources, which account for the bulk of the prospective resource base, are subject to a separate pricing formula, which has yet to be determined. Interest in the NELP-X licensing round rests heavily on how this formula is calculated.

  • While fiscal and regulatory reforms offer...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
9
Table: Headline Forecasts (India 2013-2019)
9
SWOT
11
Oil & Gas SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
13
Upstream Exploration
13
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (India 2013-2018)
13
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (India 2019-2024)
13
Upstream Projects
20
Table: Key Upstream Projects In India
20
Upstream Production - Oil
24
Table: Oil Production (India 2013-2018)
24
Table: Oil Production (India 2019-2024)
24
Upstream Production - Gas
29
Table: Gas Production (India 2013-2018)
29
Table: Gas Production (India 2019-2024)
29
Table: India's Shale-Rich Basins
33
Refining
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (India 2013-2018)
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (India 2019-2024)
34
Refined Fuels Consumption
37
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (India 2013-2018)
37
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (India 2019-2024)
37
Gas Consumption
42
Table: Gas Consumption (India 2013-2018)
42
Table: Gas Consumption (India 2019-2024)
42
Trade - Oil
45
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (India 2013-2018)
45
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (India 2019-2024)
45
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (India 2013-2018)
47
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (India 2019-2024)
47
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (India 2013-2018)
48
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (India 2019-2024)
49
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
50
Table: Gas Net Exports (India 2013-2018)
50
Table: Gas Net Exports (India 2019-2024)
51
Table: LNG Supply Deals
53
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
54
Asia Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
54
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
54
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Index
56
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
58
Downstream Support
60
India - Risk/Reward Index
62
India Upstream Index - Overview
62
India Upstream Index - Rewards
62
India Upstream Index - Risks
62
India Downstream Index - Overview
63
Market Overview
64
India Energy Market Overview
64
Overview/State Role
65
Licensing, Regulation And Taxes
65
Table: Oil & Gas Royalty Rates
66
Licensing Rounds
66
Table: Shale Gas Resource Potential
67
Government Policy
70
International Energy Relations
71
India Oil & Gas Infrastructure
72
Oil Refineries
72
Table: Operational Indian Refineries
73
Table: Summary Of New Forecast Capacity
75
Table: Other Outlined Refinery Expansion And Modernisation Projects - Not Forecast
75
Oil Storage Facilities
75
Service Stations
76
Oil Pipelines
76
Table: India - Crude Oil Pipelines
77
Table: India - Refined Products Pipelines
77
Table: India - LPG Pipelines
79
LNG Terminals
79
Table: LNG Terminals In India
80
Gas Storage Facilities
81
Gas Pipelines
81
Table: India - Natural Gas Pipelines
81
Table: Pipelines Outlined Under The 12th Five-Year Plan
82
Competitive Landscape
85
Competitive Landscape Summary
85
Table: Key Players - India Oil And Gas Sector
86
Table: Key Upstream Players
87
Table: Key Downstream Players
87
Company Profile
88
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC)
88
Oil India Ltd (OIL)
96
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC)
102
Reliance Industries
107
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL)
115
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL)
119
Gas Authority of India (GAIL)
125
Cairn India
131
Essar Oil
136
Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation
141
Petronet LNG
145
Other Summaries
149
Regional Overview
155
Asia Oil And Gas Regional Overview
155
Upstream Production: A Weaker Market Ahead
155
Asia: Hit By Industry Spending Caution
158
Downstream: Fierce Market Competition To Endure
160
Oil Consumption: Lower Prices Compensate For Subsidy Cuts
162
Gas Consumption: South Catches Up With North
163
Markets To Watch: India & Indonesia
165
Global Industry Overview
168
Global Industry Overview - Five Themes For 2015: Oil & Gas
168
Table: LNG Export Terminals At Pre-FID Stage
173
Appendix
175
Asia - Regional Appendix
175
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
175
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
176
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
177
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
178
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
179
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
180
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
181
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
182
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
183
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
184
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
185
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
186
India - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
187
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (India 2013-2018)
187
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (India 2019-2024)
187
India - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
188
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (India 2013-2018)
188
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (India 2019-2024)
189
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (India 2013-2018)
190
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (India 2019-2024)
192
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (India 2013-2018)
193
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (India 2019-2024)
194
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (India 2013-2018)
195
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (India 2019-2024)
195
Glossary
196
Table: Glossary Of Terms
196
Methodology
198
Industry Forecast Methodology
198
Source
200
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
200
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
202
Table: Weighting
203

The India Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for India including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's India Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for India to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc