BMI View: The tough operating environment for multinational drugmakers in India will see little improvement over the medium term. Designated as a 'Priority Watch List Country' for PhRMA's Special 301 submission for 2016, the issues raised largely mirrored those touched upon in the 2015 submission, such as low levels of intellectual property and challenges in market access. As a result of these factors, innovative firms will adopt a cautious approach to India, which remains attractive due to its large medicine market size.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: INR1,065bn (USD16bn) in 2015 to INR1,191bn (17bn) by 2016; +11.8% in local currency terms and 5.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
Healthcare: INR6,695bn (USD104bn) in 2015 to INR7,561bn (USD110bn) by 2016; +12.9% in local currency terms and 6.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.
India's pharmaceutical market ranks as the tenth most attractive amongst 19 other countries in the Asia Pacific region. Scoring 50.8 out of 100.0 for our BMI Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index in Q316, the country's high market expenditure is weighed down by the low spending per capita as well as the high risks involved, including low patent respect.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||15.630||16.610||17.460||19.170||21.220||23.620||26.330|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.76||0.79||0.78||0.79||0.79||0.80||0.81|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||16.1||15.9||15.8||15.6||15.5||15.3||15.2|
|Health spending, USDbn||97.130||104.360||110.790||122.870||137.310||154.180||173.300|
The Indian state government of Maharashtra noted in January 2016 that it will be setting up 12 high-capacity cluster vaccine storage centres in six tribal districts. Being set up at the cost of INR21mn (USD315,115), this will allow the state to carry out immunization drives smoothly.
The month of February 2016 saw the government release its budget for FY2016/17. Among the initiatives for healthcare include a new health protection scheme that will provide health coverage up to INR100,000 (USD1,463) per family living under in poverty and a drive to open 3,000 Jan Aushadi stores within the year.
In March 2015, the Delhi High Court extended its interim order lifting a government ban on fixed dose combinations pharmaceuticals. Initiated that month, the ban targets 344 drugs and affects a wide array of multinational pharmaceutical firms such as Pfizer and Sanofi.
BMI Economic View
India's real GDP expanded by 7.4% y-o-y in Q2FY2015/16, accelerating from a rate of 7.0% y-o-y in the previous quarter, as the manufacturing and power sectors registered strong growth. Although we maintain our FY2015/16 (April-March) real GDP growth forecast of 7.3%, the sluggish growth prints of the agriculture and construction sectors suggest that the Indian economy continues to face multiple challenges.
BMI Political View
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s heavy loss in the Bihar legislative assembly elections suggests that it will be increasingly difficult for the ruling party to attain a majority in the upper house. The BJP will continue to struggle to pass big bang structural reforms as the opposition parties grow stronger. Meanwhile, we expect Indian equities to underperform amid the BJP's sliding political fortunes and expensive valuations.
The India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the India pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for India, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Indian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.