India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: The shift in the pharmaceutical landscape due to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) will be negative for the Indian generic drug industry. Collectively accounting for 40% of medicine exports from India, the 12 member markets of the TPP will see stronger patent protection and longer regulatory data protection. This coupled with the introduction of a patent linkage system will serve to deter the introduction of Indian generic drugs and curtail their overall growth.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: INR1,066bn (USD16bn) in 2015 to INR1,191bn (17bn) by 2016; +11.7% in local currency terms and 6.4% in US dollar terms.

Healthcare: INR5,716bn (USD88bn) in 2015 to INR6,395bn (USD94bn) by 2016; +11.9% in local currency terms and 6.6% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Index

India's pharmaceutical market ranks as the tenth most attractive amongst 19 other countries in the Asia Pacific region. Scoring 51.8 out of 100.0 for our BMI Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index in Q216, the country's high market expenditure (scoring 16.0 out of 20.0) is weighed down by the low spending per capita (scoring 1.2 out of 12) as well as the high risks involved including low patent respect (scoring 2.1 out of 7.0).

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (India 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 15.627 16.395 17.447 19.143 21.194 23.600 26.294
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 0.76 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.79 0.79 0.80
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 18.8 18.6 18.6 18.7 18.8 19.1 19.4
Health spending, USDbn 83.317 87.941 93.701 102.442 112.484 123.661 135.430

Latest Updates

  • In November 2015, the Delhi high Court turned down an injunction petition filed by Bayer against Dr Reddy's Laboratories. Local news sources note this lawsuit was due to an infringement of Bayer's patent for rivaroxaban.

  • In December 2015, the Union Fertilisers Minister Ananth Kumar noted that there will be a separate ministry for pharmaceuticals and medical device sector in 2016.

  • In January 2016, Roche and Glenmark Pharmaceutical have settled out of court a litigation over the lung cancer erlotinib.

BMI Economic View

India's real GDP growth slowed to 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of FY2015/16 (April-March) from 7.5% y-o-y in the previous quarter, and we are downgrading our full-year forecast to 7.3% (versus 7.6% previously). We expect weakening agricultural growth and slowing reform momentum to weigh on overall economic growth.

BMI Political View

The Modi government will focus on reforming the Indian economy in a gradual manner, with a greater emphasis on improving policy implementation. The BJP will face difficulties in passing big bang structural reforms due to its lack of majority in the 245-seat upper house. State elections, which will continue to take place over the coming years, will determine whether the BJP will attain an upper house majority, and in the upcoming Bihar state elections, we expect the party to face an uphill battle to defeat the alliance formed by the JDU, RJD, and the INC.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (India 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2011-2019)
13
Healthcare Market Forecast
14
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2011-2019)
16
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2011-2019)
17
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2011-2019)
17
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
18
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2011-2019)
19
Patented Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Selected Patent Developments Affecting Drugmakers
21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2011-2019)
23
Generic Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2011-2019)
25
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
26
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2011-2019)
27
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (India 2013-2019)
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (India 2013-2019)
30
Industry Risk Reward Index
31
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index
31
India Risk/Reward Index
38
Rewards
38
Risks
38
Regulatory Review
39
Pharmaceutical Advertising
42
Pharmacovigilance
42
Intellectual Property Issues
43
Table: History Of The Indian Patent System
44
Table: A Series Of Setbacks For Innovative Pharmaceutical Firms
45
Pricing Regime
49
Compulsory Licences
53
Market Overview
54
Healthcare Sector
54
Table: Healthcare Resources (India 2009-2014)
57
Table: Healthcare Personnel (India 2009-2014)
57
Table: Healthcare Activity (India 2009-2014)
58
Clinical Trials
60
Epidemiology
62
Table: Estimated Number Of New Cases Of Cancer In India
64
Competitive Landscape
65
Research-Based Industry
65
Table: Ordinary Members Of OPPI
65
Table: Multinational Market Activity
66
Generic Drug Industry
67
Key Industry Developments
67
Pharmaceutical Distribution
68
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
69
Company Profile
70
Aurobindo Pharmaceutical
70
Cipla
73
Dr
77
GlaxoSmithKline
81
Merck & Co
86
Novartis
89
Pfizer
93
Ranbaxy Laboratories
97
Sanofi India
102
Sun Pharmaceutical
105
Demographic Forecast
107
Table: Population Headline Indicators (India 1990-2025)
108
Table: Key Population Ratios (India 1990-2025)
108
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (India 1990-2025)
109
Table: Population By Age Group (India 1990-2025)
109
Table: Population By Age Group % (India 1990-2025)
110
Glossary
112
Methodology
114
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
114
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
114
Notes On Methodology
115
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
116
Index Overview
117
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
117
Indicator Weightings
118

The India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the India pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for India, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.