BMI View: India's pharmaceutical market will continue to see more biosimilar products being launched by domestic drugmakers. Developing such products is a business necessity for Indian firms to maintain revenue growth as commoditisation limits the commercial opportunities from simple chemical molecules. This dovetails with their improving scientific and manufacturing ability, posing a pertinent threat to originator pharmaceutical firms that have product portfolios dominated by biologics.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: INR1,066bn (USD17bn) in 2015 to INR1,191bn (17bn) by 2016; +11.8% in local currency terms and 5.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
Healthcare: INR6,695bn (USD104bn) in 2015 to INR7,561bn (USD111bn) by 2016; +12.9% in local currency terms and 6.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||15.630||16.610||17.460||19.170||21.220||23.620||26.330|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.83||0.82||0.87||0.87||0.88||0.88||0.89|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||16.1||15.9||15.8||15.6||15.5||15.3||15.2|
|Health spending, USDbn||97.130||104.360||110.790||122.870||137.310||154.180||173.300|
India's pharmaceutical market ranks as the 10th most attractive amongst 19 other countries in the Asia Pacific region. Scoring 50.8 out of 100.0 for our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index in Q416, the country's high market expenditure (scoring 16.0 out of 20.0) is weighed down by the low spending per capita (scoring 1.2 out of 12) as well as the high risks involved, including low patent respect (scoring 2.1 out of 7.0).
In April 2016, the Indian government reported that pharmaceutical exports from India have increased by 9.7% in the last fiscal year while exports to the US rose by 33% y-o-y. Volume wise, the country accounts for 20% of the world's generic medicines, making it the largest generic drug maker globally.
In May 2016, the Indian government approved a new intellectual property rights policy that it said would encourage innovation and improve access to healthcare. Critically, the policy continues to allow compulsory licensing while key provisions such as Section 3d of the Patent Act remain in force.
In July 2016, Hetero Pharma launched its biosimilar of Roche's bevacizumab in India for the treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer. This follows a move by Reliance Life Sciences to launch its copy of Avastin in June 2016. Roche had filed a lawsuit to block the launch of Hetero's biosimilar but the firm noted that because no injunction order has been given, the launch is not prohibited.
BMI Economic View
In line with our expectations, the Reserve Bank of India lowered its repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.50% at its April 5 monetary policy meeting, while also stating its aim to improve the transmission mechanism through various policy adjustments to its liquidity management framework. We maintain our forecast for the central bank to lower its key policy rate by an additional 25bps to 6.25% by the end of FY2016/17 (April-March) in a bid to provide continued support to the economy. The central bank remained dovish in its statement, and subdued inflation in FY2016/17 will provide sufficient room for a reduction in the repo rate.
BMI Political View
The Modi administration's continued focus on incremental economic reforms during its FY2016/17 (April-March) union budget will be positive for the country's business environment. However, despite increasing outlays to the rural sector, the BJP is unlikely to secure easy victories in upcoming state elections in April and May that are crucial in determining whether the BJP will be able to eventually attain an upper house majority. Lastly, we are shifting to a near-term neutral view on equities given balanced risks.
The India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the India pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for India, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Indian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.