India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 05 June 2015

  • 166 pages
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$1,295.00
India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: The implementation of universal healthcare in India will remain challenging and we maintain our view that a full nationwide rollout by 2019 is unlikely. This outlook is driven by the low levels of healthcare funding provided by the government as it seeks to reduce budget deficit and prioritise other sectors such as infrastructure. Moreover, we highlight that improvements in healthcare access from the programme will remain weighed on by low levels of medical infrastructure, limiting the commercial opportunities for drugmakers.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: INR1,021bn (USD16.7bn) in 2014 to INR1,154bn (USD18.4bn) by 2015; +13.0% in local currency terms and 11.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast Maintained from previous quarter.

Healthcare: INR5,087bn (USD83bn) in 2014 to INR5,717bn (USD91bn) by 2015; +10.3% in local currency terms and 9.4% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Index

India's pharmaceutical market ranks as the tenth most attractive amongst 19 other countries in the Asia Pacific region. Scoring 53.0 out of 100.0 for our BMI Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index in Q315, the country's high market expenditure (scoring 16.0 out of 20.0) is weighed down by the low spending per capita (scoring 1.2 out of 12) as well as the high risks involved including low patent respect (scoring 2.1 out of 7.0).

Key Trends And Developments

  • In May 2015, the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority recommended 12 cancer drugs to be brought under price control including trastuzumab, erlotinib and rituximab.

  • After a long dispute that began with an appeal lodged by Cipla to repeal Novartis' patent for Onbrez (indacaterol), the indian generic drugmaker in April 2015 disclosed that it was willing to pay a royalty for the product. Novartis has since rejected the offer.

  • In March 2015, Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for a cutback on the country's universal healthcare programme following the disclosure that the programme would cost USD18.5bn over five...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
13
Operational Risk
15
Industry Forecast
17
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
17
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2011-2019)
19
Healthcare Market Forecast
20
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2011-2019)
22
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2011-2019)
23
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2011-2019)
24
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2011-2019)
26
Patented Drug Market Forecast
27
Table: Selected Patent Developments Affecting Drugmakers
28
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2011-2019)
30
Generic Drug Market Forecast
31
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2011-2019)
32
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
33
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2011-2019)
34
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
35
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (India 2013-2019)
36
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (India 2013-2019)
37
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
38
Macroeconomic Forecasts
39
Economic Analysis
39
Table: Services Leading The Charge
40
Table: Economic Activity (India 2010-2019)
44
Industry Risk Reward Index
45
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index
45
India Risk/Reward Index
51
Rewards
51
Risks
51
Market Overview
52
Industry Trends And Developments
53
Epidemiology
53
Table: Estimated Number Of New Cases Of Cancer In India
54
Healthcare Sector
55
Healthcare Sector Developments
56
Healthcare Insurance
62
Table: Healthcare Resources (India 2009-2014)
63
Table: Healthcare Personnel (India 2009-2014)
63
Table: Healthcare Activity (India 2009-2014)
64
Research & Development
64
Table: R&D Expenditure* In Top 20 Indian Pharmaceutical Firms (By Market Capitalisation) (USDmn)
66
Clinical Trials
66
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
70
Biosimilars
75
Table: List Of Selected Biosimilars Developed By Indian Pharmaceutical Firms
78
Traditional Medicines
78
Regulatory Development
80
Pharmaceutical Advertising
83
Pharmacovigilance
83
Intellectual Property Regime
84
Table: History Of The Indian Patent System
85
Table: A Series Of Setbacks For Innovative Pharmaceutical Firms
86
Pricing Policy
90
Compulsory Licences
94
Competitive Landscape
95
Table: Ordinary Members Of OPPI
95
Generic Drug Industry
96
Key Industry Developments
96
Pharmaceutical Distribution
107
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
108
Company Profile
109
Aurobindo Pharmaceutical
109
Cipla
113
Dr
118
GlaxoSmithKline
124
Merck & Co
129
Novartis
133
Pfizer
137
Ranbaxy Laboratories
142
Sanofi India
148
Sun Pharmaceutical
152
Demographic Forecast
154
Table: Population Headline Indicators (India 1990-2025)
155
Table: Key Population Ratios (India 1990-2025)
155
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (India 1990-2025)
156
Table: Population By Age Group (India 1990-2025)
156
Table: Population By Age Group % (India 1990-2025)
157
Glossary
159
Methodology
161
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
161
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
161
Notes On Methodology
162
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
163
Index Overview
164
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
164
Indicator Weightings
165

The India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the India pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for India, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc