India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 02 April 2015

  • 166 pages
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$1,295.00
India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: India's challenging intellectual property landscape will continue to drive innovative drugmakers to adopt risk mitigation strategies, including forming partnerships with Indian generic pharmaceuticals companies. We highlight that such collaborations will also boost the marketing efforts of multinational pharmaceutical companies as they will be able to leverage upon the considerable marketing resources available to large Indian drugmakers.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: INR1,021bn (USD16.7bn) in 2014 to INR1,154bn (USD18.4bn) by 2015; +13.0% in local currency terms and 11.2% in US dollar terms.

Healthcare: INR5,195bn (USD85.1bn) in 2014 to INR5,791bn (USD92.2bn) by 2015; +11.5% in local currency terms and 8.4% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Index

India's pharmaceutical market is the ranks as the tenth most attractive amongst 19 other countries in the Asia Pacific region. Scoring 51.8 out of 100.0 for our BMI Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index in Q215, the country's high market expenditure (scoring 16.0 out of 20.0) is weighed down by the low spending per capita (scoring 1.2 out of 12) as well as the high risks involved including low patent respect (scoring 2.1 out of 7.0).

Key Trends And Developments

  • In February 2015, the government announced it will begin selling 504 essential medicines in July 2015. Branded as 'Jan Aushadi', the pharmaceutical products sold will cover the diseases such as cardiovascular, respiratory, diabetes and gastroenterology.

  • In January 2015, the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA) requested the Organisation of Pharmaceutical Producers of India to provide information on patented medicines imported or manufactured for sale in India. This was done as the regulator is looking into fixing the prices of patented medicines.

  • In December 2014, health officials disclosed that the government intends to reduce its healthcare expenditure by 20% in the upcoming 2014/15 budget. This will result in a decline of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
13
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
17
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
17
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018)
18
Healthcare Market Forecast
19
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018)
21
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018)
22
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018)
22
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018)
24
Patented Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018)
27
Generic Drug Market Forecast
28
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018)
29
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
30
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018)
31
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
32
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2018)
33
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (India 2012-2018)
33
Other Healthcare Data
34
Macroeconomic Forecasts
35
Downgrade Due To Significant Pull-Back In Capital Spending
36
Waning Private Consumption Growth Poses Further Downside Risks
36
Not All Gloom: Data Could Boost BJP's Position
37
Table: India - Economic Activity
38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
39
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
39
India Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Rewards
45
Risks
45
Market Overview
46
Industry Trends And Developments
47
Epidemiology
47
Table: Leading Causes Of Death In India (2008)
48
Healthcare Sector
48
Healthcare Sector Developments
50
Healthcare Insurance
55
Research & Development
56
Table: R&D Expenditure* In Top 20 Indian Pharmaceutical Firms (By Market Capitalisation) (USDmn)
58
Clinical Trials
59
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
62
Biosimilars
67
Table: List Of Selected Biosimilars Developed By Indian Pharmaceutical Firms
69
Traditional Medicines
71
Regulatory Development
72
Pharmaceutical Advertising
75
Pharmacovigilance
75
Intellectual Property Regime
76
Table: History Of The Indian Patent System
77
Table: A Series Of Setbacks For Innovative Pharmaceutical Firms
79
Pricing Policy
82
Compulsory Licences
83
Competitive Landscape
85
Pharmaceutical Sector
85
Key Industry Developments
88
Domestic Industry
97
Pharmaceutical Distribution
99
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
100
Company Profile
101
Dr
101
Cipla
107
Ranbaxy Laboratories
112
Aurobindo Pharmaceutical
119
Pfizer
123
GlaxoSmithKline
128
Novartis
133
Sanofi India
137
Merck & Co
141
Demographic Forecast
145
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
146
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
147
Table: India's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
148
Table: India's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
148
Glossary
149
Methodology
151
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
151
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
151
Notes On Methodology
152
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
153
Ratings Overview
154
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
154
Indicator Weightings
155

The India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the India pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for India, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc