BMI View: Our view that power sector reforms would be a top priority for Modi's government is playing out. We are witnessing notable progress in the Indian power market regarding renewable energy expansion, reducing red tape for power projects and improving fuel availability for thermal generation. That said, in vestment into India's power grid infrastructure will need to increase if Prime Minister Modi's ambitious power plans are to be realised. Indeed, the transmission and distribution net work remains highly inefficient, posing a significant risk to the expansion of the power and renewables sector in India.
We forecast that electricity generation in India will grow by 6.5% in 2015, faster than 5.5% growth that we estimate the sector will have experienced in 2014. Our 2015 forecast can be attributed to the strengthening economic outlook and the reforms that Modi has started to initiate in the sector.
We have maintained our long-term forecasts for the Indian power sector, and forecast electricity generation to grow at an average of 6.2% per annum between 2016 and 2024. The outlook for the sector remains positive, and we believe that several fundamental drivers of growth are beginning to align in India's favour. That said, building up vast amounts of generating capacity - including conventional power plants, renewables capacity, hydropower and nuclear - will be futile unless the grid infrastructure is in place to support it. We are yet to see a significant ramp up in investment into the T&D segment and the number of grid infrastructure projects in the pipeline is minimal when compared to the pipeline of power plant projects. Using our Power Key Projects Database and collating the number of power projects in the pipeline in India - including those planned, approved, under construction, in tender etc - it becomes clear that grid infrastructure only accounts for a small proportion of the total number, under 10%. This will not be enough to ensure grid...
The India Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The India Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for India to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks India's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in India.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).