BMI View: There is huge long-term potential in India's commercial real estate market as the country builds on its status as a global IT and outsourcing hub and becomes open to more foreign investment, and as the spending power of the expanding middle class continues to grow. The economy is also beginning to rebound, and although in the short term we see no rise in rental rates, risks are to the upside.
Growth in India's commercial real estate market will be supported by an uptick in economic growth. Data from the first quarter (April-June) of the 2014/2015 financial year indicate that the economy grew by 5.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in real terms, and we forecast growth of 5.6% in 2014/2015 (April-March), supported by regulatory improvements and an increase in investment as well as strong growth in exports, industrial output and services output. These improving fundamentals will boost demand for real estate, as businesses expand and their operating environment improves.
A loosening on restrictions on the sale of FDI-manufactured goods should boost demand for industrial real estate.
In September 2014, Swedish furniture retailer Ikea said that it was looking to develop its own stores in India.
Nitesh Estates is reportedly looking to buy the Plaza Centre Mall in Pune.
US-based Blackstone has been making and considering a number of acquisitions in India in recent months. In September 2014, it bought two office properties, in Noida and Pune, from IDFC Alternatives Lt d. Blackstone was also said to be in negotiations to buy an IT special economic zone in Noida from 3C.
Key BMI Forecasts
We see no change in rental rates in any of the sub-sectors we cover in 2015 and 2016.
Office rental rates will remain highest in Mumbai, at up to USD65 per square metre (sq m) per month.
Retail rents are the highest of the three sub-sectors that we cover, with the highest also being in Mumbai, at between USD28 and USD90 per sq m per month.
The India Real Estate Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts of major construction projects in the residential and commercial markets, plus rental prices and yields in major cities. The report critically analyses the prospects for real estate within the broader economic and financial context - both domestic and global - via our econometrically-modelled and clearly explained banking and economic forecasts and follows this through to evaluate the implications for REITs.
BMI's India Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry in India.
- Benchmark BMI's independent real estate industry forecasts for India to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indian real estate market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in India through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our company profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering real estate and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the real estate sector and within the broader political, financial, economic and business environment.
Industry Forecasts Outlook
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for the domestic real estate industry and for the local and global finance industry.
- Real Estate: Office, retail and industrial real estate yields for all major cities (%); short term forecasts on minimum and maximum real estate rental prices by sub-sector (USD per square metre and local currency per square metre).
- Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (‘000); real growth (%).
- economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (USDbn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against USD).
BMI’s Real Estate Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (real estate vendors, construction companies and financial investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Overview of the real estate sector, including analysis of existing/planned real estate developments and emerging industry trends in the office, industrial and commercial sectors
Features detailed city-level data and analysis on rental prices, yields, contract terms and real estate availability with separate chapters covering the office, retail and industrial sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.