BMI View: The huge oversubscription of a solar PV tender in Andhra Pradesh aligns with our view that India's solar market - and the wider renewables sector - will attract significant investor interest over the next five years, given the sizeable rewards on offer in the market. The biggest risk to this positive outlook is that such high levels of competition for solar auctions have the potential to drive tariff costs to unfeasibly low levels, jeopardising project realisation.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydro Renewables, TWh||44.98||52.01||61.85||78.46||89.75||102.49||114.97|
|Generation, Non-Hydro Renewables, % y-o-y||12.82||15.62||18.93||26.85||14.40||14.19||12.18|
|Capacity, Non-Hydro Renewables, MW||29,856.4||33,909.2||39,953.7||49,986.1||56,860.9||64,220.5||71,458.1|
|Capacity, Non-Hydro Renewables, % y-o-y||13.1||13.6||17.8||25.1||13.8||12.9||11.3|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
The Ministry of New Renewable Energy have scaled up the country's renewable energy targets for 2022. The government hopes to install 175GW of capacity by 2022, consisting of 100GW of solar power, 60GW of wind, 10GW of biomass and 500MW of small-scale hydro.
We have upwardly revised our solar capacity forecasts this quarter, in light of the continued strengthening of the sector that we have witnessed over the last three months. We now forecast solar capacity to reach over 5GW by end-2015 and 8.7GW in 2016 (a 21.8% annual growth).
The sizeable rewards on offer and the significant investor interest in the solar segment were highlighted in September by the tenfold oversubscription of a tender for 500MW of solar PV capacity in Andhra Pradesh. Around 30 developers submitted bids for nearly 5.5GW.
The Indian Cabinet cleared a USD7bn debt recast and reform package in November - aimed at the Indian distribution companies, to ease the capital crunch, in part by encouraging state governments to take on up to 75% of their debt.
Indian company Adani Enterprises and US-based SunEdison signed a deal to build a solar PV manufacturing facility in Mundra, the state of Gujarat with an investment of about USD4bn in January 2015. The facility, which will produce low-cost solar panels, is expected to be completed in three to four years.
It was announced in February 2015 that Indian wind turbine manufacturer Suzlon Energy plan to develop 3GW of renewable energy projects in Gujarat state by 2020. The move is a part of a challenge set by Modi to install 2GW of wind projects in the state.
The India Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in India. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in India, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in India, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's India Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the India renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for India to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the India renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in India, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.