BMI View: Our forecast maintains healthy growth in the Indian telecommunications market out to 2020 - driven by rising incomes, heavy infrastructure development and foreign investment in the sector. Currently, voice remains the main source of revenue but operators' strategy of migrating customers to higher-value 3G and 4G services will drive data consumption and market growth over the next deca de. The Indian tower market is another key area of growth, as operators are increasingly offloading assets to third party tower companies in order to free up the capital needed to invest in spectrum and services. The upcoming spectrum auction towards the end of 2016 is expected to be the largest in the country's history and we expect that the major carriers will all look to aggressively invest in the 700MHz licenses, the most coveted band.
|3G/4G Migration Drives Mobile Sector Expansion|
|India Mobile Market Forecasts|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI, TRAI, operators, COAI|
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
Approximately 22.7mn new mobile subscriptions were added in Q116, taking the total above 1.03bn. The focus is on 3G/4G migration and customer numbers will reach 219.9mn in 2016 and 322.3mn by 2020.
The largest spectrum auction in the country's history is expected to take place on 1 October 2016 and a total of over 2,300MHz will be auctioned in several 4G LTE-compatible bands. We expect that the 700MHz band will be the most coveted and the market leaders of the Indian telecoms industry will look to procure it whereas the reserve price will be too high for smaller, local players.
Telenor's operations in India remain in an uncertain state. Vodafone had emerged as the likely purchaser of Telenor's Indian operations but that deal did not materialize. There is speculation that Telenor may exit the Indian market entirely and wrap up its operations as the carrier has refused to participate in the October 2016 spectrum auction, citing the high cost of procuring spectrum.
The decommissioning of ageing wireless local loop (WLL) networks and older switches within the PSTN are behind the decline in wireline voice service usage. This, plus further delays to the rollout of the BharatNet broadband network means we have a bearish view of the sector's prospects. There will be 39.781mn broadband accesses by end-2016, rising to 49.824mn by 2020.
The India Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of India's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's India Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in India.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for India to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in India's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.