Indonesia Agribusiness Report

Published 20 July 2015

  • 113 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Indonesia Agribusiness Report

BMI View: W e hold an optimistic outlook towards Indonesia ' s agriculture sector and see significant growth opportunities in sub-sectors such as livestock , sugar and palm oil. The country's goal to become self sufficient in a large number of commodities is overly ambitious in light of the robust outlook for food and drink consumption. Agricultural production will struggle to expand in the coming years amidst scarce agricultural land, the lack of proper infrastructure and the existence of a large number of low-technology, small-scale farmers. While we believe that Indonesia will be able to reduce its dependence on rice imports in the coming y ears, sugar, corn and beef self- sufficiency are far-fetched. More worryingly, we expect coffee and cocoa production to rec ord very weak production growth in the coming years.

Self-Sufficiency Goal Not Always Achievable
Indonesia - Select Commodities Self-Sufficiency Ratios (%)
f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, BMI

Key Forecasts

  • Cocoa production growth between 2013/14 and 2018/19: 5.3% to 410,800 tonnes. Production growth will slightly accelerate beyond 2017/18, as private grinders in the country are slowly developing programmes to improve plantation management and foster best practices. But output will record weak growth as the government's plan to revive plantations will fail to reach its goal to double cocoa output.

  • Palm oil consumption growth between 2014 and 2019: 44.1% to 12.2mn tonnes. Relatively recent refining and biodiesel policies (B15 mandate) will continue to inflate domestic consumption of palm oil in the coming years.

  • Sugar production growth between 2013/14 and 2018/19: 22.5% to 2.8mn tonnes. Moderate plantation expansion will help output grow in the coming years, but production growth will be held back by poor cane recovery rates, harvest management and infrastructure issues

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD152.5bn in 2015 (up from USD140.7bn in 2014; forecast to grow...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Rice Outlook
14
Table: Indonesia - Rice Production & Consumption Outlook
15
Table: Risks To Outlook
15
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2011-2019)
19
Grains Outlook
19
Table: Indonesia - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook
20
Table: Risks To Outlook
20
Table: Grains Production & Consumption (Indonesia, 2011-2019)
24
Sugar Outlook
25
Table: Indonesia - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook
25
Table: Risks To Outlook
26
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2011-2019)
32
Livestock Outlook
33
Table: Indonesia - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook
33
Table: Risks To Outlook
34
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2011-2019)
41
Coffee Outlook
42
Table: Indonesia - Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook
42
Table: Risks To Outlook
42
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2011-2019)
46
Cocoa Outlook
47
Table: Indonesia - Cocoa Production & Consumption Outlook
47
Table: Risk To Outlook
48
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2011-2019)
52
Palm Oil Outlook
53
Table: Indonesia - Palm Oil Production & Consumption Outlook
54
Table: Indonesia - Risks To Palm Oil Outlook
54
Table: Indonesia - Minimum Wage ('000 IDR) & Palm Oil Production By Province, 2012 - 2015
58
Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2011-2019)
63
Commodities Price Analysis
64
Monthly Softs Strategy
64
Table: India - Monsoon Rainfall, Irrigation And Production In The Main Agricultural States
68
Monthly Grains Strategy
69
Table: Grain Prices With Select Metrics (USc/bushel)
70
Upstream Analysis
72
Asia GM Outlook
72
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use
74
Asia Machinery Outlook
75
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
79
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
83
Downstream Analysis
88
Mass Grocery Retail
88
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2019)
90
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%)
90
Food
91
Food Consumption
91
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2019)
92
Canned Food
92
Confectionery
93
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2019)
94
Drink
96
Hot Drinks
96
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2019)
97
Alcoholic Drinks
98
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2019)
99
Soft Drinks
100
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Indonesia 2014-2019)
101
Competitive Landscape
104
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies (USD mn)
104
Demographic Forecast
105
Demographic Outlook
105
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Indonesia 1990-2025)
106
Table: Key Population Ratios (Indonesia 1990-2025)
106
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Indonesia 1990-2025)
107
Table: Population By Age Group (Indonesia 1990-2025)
107
Table: Population By Age Group % (Indonesia 1990-2025)
108
Methodology
110
Industry Forecast Methodology
110
Sector-Specific Methodology
111

The Indonesia Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Indonesia Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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