Indonesia Agribusiness Report

Published 16 April 2015

  • 152 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Indonesia Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Overall, we hold an optimistic outlook on Indonesia's agriculture sector and see significant growth opportunities in sub-sectors such as livestock, palm oil and cocoa. While we believe the government's goal to reach self-sufficiency in rice by 2015 is attainable, we are less confident about other commodities such as sugar and corn. We also highlight that the country's aim to become the second largest coffee producer in the world by 2015 is unrealistic. Much of our scepticism relates to the lack of proper infrastructure and the existence of a large number of low-technology, small-scale farmers. We believe the shift from raw commodity exports to refined exports (especially for palm oil and cocoa) will warrant more public and private investment in order for the raw inputs industry to keep pace with downstream industries. Investments by Wilmar , Golden Agri Resources and Barry Callebaut are clear signs of the growing interest in these sectors.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)

Key Forecasts

  • Corn consumption growth to 201 9 : 2 8.7% to 15 mn tonnes . Corn demand will be mainly driven by the increasing need for animal feed, considerably outpacing the rise in use for food for direct human consumption.

  • Sugar production growth to 201 8/19 : 3 2.5 % to 3.0 mn tonnes. This expansion will be mainly due to improved yields and higher sucrose content in cane. Despite the production improvement, the country will remain one of the world's largest sugar importers as sugar consumption outstrips what the country can meet through supply. Production growth will be held back by poor cane recovery rates, poor harvest management and infrastructure issues, especially to transport cane.

  • Beef production growth to 201 8/19 : 1 4.3 % to 686 ,000 tonnes. Output will grow on the back of increased domestic demand as well as further government support, as Indonesian authorities are looking to be self-sufficient in the coming years...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
11
Agribusiness
11
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Rice Outlook
15
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2019)
16
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2009-2014)
21
Grains Outlook
22
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2014-2019)
23
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2014-2019)
23
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2009-2014)
26
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2009-2014)
27
Sugar Outlook
28
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2014-2019)
29
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2009-2014)
35
Livestock Outlook
37
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2014-2019)
38
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2014-2019)
38
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2014-2019)
38
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2009-2014)
50
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2009-2014)
50
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2009-2014)
50
Coffee Outlook
52
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2019)
53
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2009-2014)
58
Cocoa Outlook
59
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2019)
60
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2009-2014)
68
Palm Oil Outlook
70
Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2014-2019)
71
Table: Indonesia - Minimum Wage ('000 IDR) & Palm Oil Production By Province, 2012 - 2015
72
Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2009-2014)
78
Featured Analysis
79
Attractive Opportunities Amid Booming Dairy Demand And Imports
79
Table: Dairy Products Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2018)
85
Commodities Price Analysis
86
Monthly Softs Update
86
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Bmi Forecasts
95
Monthly Grains Update
96
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Bmi Forecasts
104
Upstream Analysis
105
Asia GM Outlook
105
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use
109
Asia Machinery Outlook
110
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
112
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
117
Downstream Analysis
123
Mass Grocery Retail
123
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2019)
124
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%)
125
Food
125
Food Consumption
125
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2019)
126
Canned Food
126
Confectionery
127
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2019)
128
Drink
130
Hot Drinks
130
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2019)
131
Alcoholic Drinks
132
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2019)
133
Soft Drinks
134
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Indonesia 2014-2019)
135
Regional Overview
138
Competitive Landscape
144
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies (USD mn)
144
Demographic Forecast
145
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Indonesia 1990-2025)
146
Table: Key Population Ratios (Indonesia 1990-2025)
146
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Indonesia 1990-2025)
147
Table: Population By Age Group (Indonesia 1990-2025)
147
Table: Population By Age Group % (Indonesia 1990-2025)
148
Methodology
150
Industry Forecast Methodology
150
Sector-Specific Methodology
151

The Indonesia Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Indonesia Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc