Indonesia Autos Report

Published 27 May 2015

  • 77 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Indonesia Autos Report

Indonesian auto sales have entered into a tailspin over the past few months, with their decline exacerbated by the hike in fuel prices in November 2014. While we remain optimistic on 2015 and forecast a recovery for this year, we are tempering our growth forecasts as we see demand conditions remaining soft in the coming months. We forecast vehicle sales to grow 4.3% in 2015 versus 9.6% previously.

The two salient factors, which have eroded consumers' purchasing power and crimped private consumption, are high inflation and elevated interest rates. Our Country Risk team expects this to persist for much of 2015 and this will continue to take a toll on passenger car demand. However, as the market gradually absorbs the rise in fuel prices, we see consumer demand picking up in the latter half of the year; we forecast car sales to rise by 4.0% in 2015.

On the commercial vehicle (CV) side, government bureaucracy has taken its toll on investment and this is evident in the 17.7% decline in heavy truck sales in 2014. For instance, the mining sector remains in a logjam due to the government's wide-ranging export ban of unprocessed mineral ores, which has no near-term solution in sight. With commodity exports suffering as a result, we believe sales of heavy trucks inevitably declined as mining firms saw a lesser need for them. While our view of a recovery in CV sales in 2015 is predicated on a concurrent modest pickup in economic growth, more structural reforms are needed to spur investment and increase CV demand ( see 'Modest Growth Pick-Up In 2015, But Structural Reforms Still Needed', January 14).

We remain positive on the long-term outlook of Indonesia, and believe that the country's consumer story remains very strong. As such, we forecast domestic auto sales to grow at an annual average of 8.8% over the 2016-2019 period to hit 1.8mn units by 2019. Indonesia will also remain as one of the key auto manufacturing hubs within ASEAN, with the 2015 ASEAN Economic Community...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
12
Operational Risk
14
Industry Forecast
16
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2013-2019)
16
Sales
16
Production
18
GM's Indonesia Retreat Part Of EM Selectivity
20
Industry Development - Challenges Cloud Indonesian National Car Project
22
Industry Trend Analysis - Rapid Wage Rise Threatens Localisation Efforts
24
Passenger Cars
27
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2013-2019)
27
Sales
27
Company Developments
27
Table: Domestic Fuel Prices Before And After Subsidy Reform (IDR/Litre)
28
Commercial Vehicles
32
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2013-2019)
32
Table: Construction Projects For Roads And Bridges Started Between 2010 And 2014
33
Motorcycles
35
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2013-2019)
37
Suppliers
38
Mitsubishi's Investment Positive For Sector's Localisation
39
Macroeconomic Forecast
41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
46
Asia - Risk/Reward Index
46
Table: Asia Pacific Autos Risk/Reward Index
48
Company Profile
49
Company Monitor
49
1
50
2
50
3
50
4
51
5
51
Toyota Astra Motor
53
Indonesia Autos Report Q3 2015
Indonesia Autos Report Q3 2015
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Suzuki Indomobil Motor
54
Regional Overview
55
Asia Overview
55
Table: Asia Production Investment September 2014-January 2015
56
Global Industry Overview
64
Table: Passenger Car Sales March (CBUs)
64
US Slowdown A Temporary Glitch-
64
Europe Recovery Will Be Steady
66
Asia Carries The BRIC States
67
Demographic Forecast
69
Demographic Outlook
69
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Indonesia 1990-2025)
70
Table: Key Population Ratios (Indonesia 1990-2025)
70
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Indonesia 1990-2025)
71
Table: Population By Age Group (Indonesia 1990-2025)
71
Table: Population By Age Group % (Indonesia 1990-2025)
72
Methodology
74
Industry Forecasts
74
Sector-Specific Methodology
75
Sources
75
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
76
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
77

The Indonesia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Indonesia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Indonesia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Indonesian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indonesian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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