Indonesian auto sales have entered into a tailspin over the past few months, with their decline exacerbated by the hike in fuel prices in November 2014. We are now pushing back our expectations of a recovery until 2016 and are reversing our growth forecasts for 2015 as we see demand conditions remaining soft in the coming months. We forecast vehicle sales to decline 6.6% in 2015 revised down from our previous forecast of 4.3% growth.
The two salient factors, which have eroded consumers' purchasing power and crimped private consumption, are high inflation and elevated interest rates. Our Country Risk team expects this to persist for much of 2015 and this will continue to take a toll on passenger car demand. However, as the market gradually absorbs the rise in fuel prices and as further interest rate cuts are implemented, we see consumer demand for cars improving in the latter half of the year.
On the commercial vehicle (CV) side, government bureaucracy has taken its toll on investment and this is evident in the 17.7% decline in heavy truck sales in 2014. For instance, the mining sector remains in a logjam due to the government's wide-ranging export ban of unprocessed mineral ores, which has no near-term solution in sight. With commodity exports suffering as a result, we believe sales of heavy trucks inevitably declined as mining firms saw a lesser need for them and we expect these declines to continue through 2015. For a recovery to be forthcoming more structural reforms are needed to spur investment and, therefore, CV demand (see 'Modest Growth Pick-Up In 2015, But Structural Reforms Still Needed', January 14).
However, past 2015, we remain positive on the long-term outlook of Indonesia, and believe that the country's consumer story remains very strong. As such, we forecast domestic auto sales to grow at an annual average of 8.8% over the 2016-2019 period to hit 1.58mn units by 2019. Indonesia will also remain as one of the key auto manufacturing hubs within...
The Indonesia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Indonesia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Indonesia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Indonesian automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Indonesian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.