BMI View: We expect a second successive year of US dollar contraction for Indonesia consumer electronics device spending in 2016, but with a forecast contraction of just 0.1% , performance will be a considerable improvement over 2015. The medium term outlook is much stronger, with economic development driving up incomes, and a significant boost to our forecast across the board from rupiah appreciation against the USD envisaged for 2018-2020. We forecast a CAGR of 8.9% for 2016-2020 as a whole, to total spending of USD19.7bn in 2020. Underpinning our view for improved performance later in the forecast is pent-up demand from 2015 and 2016, which will be unlocked as economic growth strengthens and the household income profile resisters a considerable improvement. Other factors making a positive contribution to the consumer spending growth story will include favourable demographic dynamics, rising levels of urbanisation, and declining device prices .
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
Computer Hardware Sales: USD4.83bn in 2016 to USD7.61bn in 2020, compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.0% 2016-2020. Depreciation remains a squeeze on affordability in 2016, but the medium-term outlook is bright based on income growth that will deepen the market and ease price sensitivity in the middle class.
AV Sales : Rising from USD2.09bn in 2016 to USD2.76bn in 2020, CAGR of 7.2% 2016-2020. Flat-panel TV set upgrades still have growth momentum in Indonesia, while Smart and Ultra-HD technologies will trigger spending in among high income households.
Handset Sales: Rising from USD7.03bn in 2016 to USD9.29bn in 2020, a CAGR of 7.2% 2016-2020. Local content requirement generates some uncertainty but we are still bullish on smartphone growth in Indonesia where relatively low penetration of smartphones should see volume growth maintained over the medium term.
|Expanding Middle Class Positive For Device Spending|
|Indonesia Household Income Breakdown (USD) (2016-2020)|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI, National Sources|
The Indonesia Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in Indonesia.
BMI Research's Indonesia Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in Indonesia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indonesian consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Indonesia through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.