BMI View: As a frontier market with low device penetration rates , Indonesia has huge growth potential, particularly in the context of rapid device price declines globally over the past decade that allow for faster catch-up growth compared to early adopters. Frontier status does however also mean economic vulnerability, as seen in 2015 when sharp rupiah depreciation derailed the growth trend. Our core scenario is for a stronger economy and device spending growth from 2017 with smartphone outperformance but a reliance on commodity exports and regulatory initiatives are sources of downside to our bullish core scenario.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
Computer Hardware Sales: USD2.9bn in 2016 to USD3.4bn in 2020, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8% over 2016-2020. The forecast was downgraded in Q117 to reflect the increasing squeeze on PC spending as a large number of consumers have grown accustomed to smartphones being their only devices for internet access.
AV Sales : Rising from USD1.7bn in 2016 to USD2.2bn in 2020, a CAGR of 6.7% over 2016-2020. Flat-panel upgrades are expected to accelerate again as the economy strengthens, while smart and Ultra-HD technologies are upgrade triggers for the far smaller but more profitable premium household market.
Handset Sales: Rising from USD5.9bn in 2016 to USD8.3bn in 2020, a CAGR of 9.2% over 2016-2020. Smartphone upgrade momentum underpins a bullish outlook but there is uncertainty going into 2017 about the potential impact of local content requirement, though our core scenario is for minimal disruption.
|Smartphone Upgrades To Drive Handset Outperformance|
|Consumer Electronics Forecast By Segment|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI|
The Indonesia Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in Indonesia.
BMI Research's Indonesia Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in Indonesia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indonesian consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Indonesia through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.