BMI View: A stabilisation of the regional economic outlook and a forecast for a slightly stronger rupiah in 2016 resulted in a small upgrade to our consumer electronics device spending forecast for Indonesia. The market will return to USD growth in 2016, but it will be over the medium term that the market moves to a significantly stronger trajectory as economic growth accelerates and the rupiah strengthens, which will contribute to purchasing power gains for households that both deepens the market and increases higher value sales. This will be a marked contrast to the contraction in 2015, as we envisage a device spending CAGR of 9.7% over 2016-2020 in Indonesia.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
Computer Hardware Sales: USD4.5.1bn in 2016 to USD7.6bn in 2020, compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.2% 2016-2020. Low penetration and rising incomes should deepen the market substantially over the medium term, but there is downside should smartphone ownership cannibalise first-time PC buyers.
AV Sales : Rising from USD2.1bn in 2016 to USD2.8bn in 2020, CAGR of 7.6% 2016-2020. Low penetration means there is still capacity in flat-panel TV set upgrades, while Smart and Ultra-HD technologies be positive factors for upgrade spending by higher income consumers.
Handset Sales: Rising from USD7.2bn in 2016 to USD10.5bn in 2020, a CAGR of 1.00% 2016-2020. Local content requirement generates some uncertainty but we are still bullish on smartphone growth in Indonesia where relatively low penetration of smartphones should see volume growth maintained over the medium term.
|Volume And Value Growth Potential As Incomes Rise|
|Indonesia Household Income Breakdown (2016-2020)|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI, National Sources|
The Indonesia Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in Indonesia.
BMI Research's Indonesia Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in Indonesia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indonesian consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Indonesia through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.