Indonesia Defence & Security Report

Published 07 November 2014

  • 74 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Indonesia Defence & Security Report

BMI View:   Indonesia benefits from economic, geographic and resource scale, giving the country a substantial advantage over its neighbours. While the co-operative stability of the ASEAN era has in some regards diminished the relevance of this strength, it provides Indonesia with the opportunity to become a key leader for the region. Boasting strong relations with the US, China and key neighbours, Indonesia's regional importance will continue to grow. Successes such as the Komodo multilateral military exercises will boost Jakarta's role in regional affairs.

On the whole, Jakarta has good relations with Beijing. However, Indonesia has at times expressed concern over some Chinese activities in the South China Sea, and Beijing must tread carefully in order to remain on good terms with South East Asia's key state. Indeed, Indonesian pressure will be critical in ensuring that China follows through on its promise to come to the table to negotiate a new Code of Conduct for the South China Sea, although progress to date has been limited, despite the best intentions of Jakarta and Washington, amongst others . 

Indonesia's regional importance as the driving force of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) group has been reinforced in a number of respects. Australia's Prime Minister Tony Abbott visited Indonesia in September 2013 and declared that the bilateral relationship with Jakarta's was Australia's 'single most important [one]'. US President Barack Obama cancelled a trip to Indonesia in October 2013 due to political problems back home, and was severely criticised by Asia watchers for passing up an important opportunity to boost relations with key regional allies. His Secretary of State, John Kerry, attended Joko Widodo's inauguration as president in October 2014, putting relations back on a firm footing. The successful hosting of the Komodo Multilateral Naval Exercises in 2014 both highlights and enhances the importance of Indonesia in the region.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Indonesia Security SWOT
9
Indonesia Defence & Security SWOT
12
Political
15
Economic
17
Industry Forecast
19
Defence Expenditure
19
Table: Defence Expenditure (Indonesia 2011-2018)
20
Armed Forces
21
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Indonesia 2004-2011)
22
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Indonesia 2011-2018)
23
Defence Trade
23
Table: Defence Trade Balance (Indonesia 2011-2018)
24
Exports
25
Table: Defence Exports (Indonesia 2011-2018)
25
Imports
26
Table: Defence Imports (Indonesia 2011-2018)
26
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
27
Macroeconomic Forecasts
28
Economic Analysis
28
Trade Account Improving
29
Risks To 2015 Growth Forecast On The Rise
30
Table: Economic Activity (Indonesia 2009-2018)
31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
32
Asia Security Risk Index
32
Table: Asia Security Risk Index
32
Table: Asia State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
33
Indonesia Security Risk Rating
34
Market Overview
35
Indonesia Defence Market Overview
35
Army
35
Domestic Industries
36
Imports
38
International Defence Partnerships
41
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
43
Table: Key Players In Indonesia's Defence Sector
43
Indonesia Security Overview
44
Domestic Threats
44
Table: Indonesia's Insurgent Groups
44
Regional Threats
44
International Threats
46
Company Profile
47
PT Dirgantara Indonesia (IAe)
47
PT Pindad
49
PT Penataran Angkatan Laut (PAL)
51
Regional Overview
53
South East Asia Security Overview
53
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
53
Global Industry Overview
65
Political Risk Analysis
65
Methodology
71
Industry Forecast Methodology
71
Sector-Specific Methodology
72
Sources
73
Security Risk Index Methodology
73
Table: Indicators And Weighting
74

The Indonesia Defence & Security Report features BMI Research's independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Indonesia Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Indonesian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Indonesian defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world’s major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict, or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world’s ‘wild card’ low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Defence Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and USDbn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure per capita (USD); defence budget (local currency and USDbn).
  • Armed Forces (to 2012): Manpower available for military service, manpower fit for militaryservice, army personnel, navy personnel,air force personnel, total armed forces, (‘000) (% population).
  • Arms Trade: Arms and ammunition exports and imports (USDmn); bombs, grenades and missiles exports and imports (USDmn); revolver and pistol exports and imports (USDmn); weapons excluding guns and swords exports and imports (USDmn).

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI’s heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI’s proprietary Security Risk Indices provide investors with a reliable and country-comparable guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst’s latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our Country Risk expertise, we assess the state’s vulnerability to a serious, or prolonged, terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/ Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Competitive Landscape

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries. The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting the Americas, along with potential risks in the coming year.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Defence & Security Market reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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