Indonesia Food & Drink Report

Published 23 February 2015

  • 118 pages
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$1,295.00
Indonesia Food & Drink Report

BMI View: While we believe that Indonesia's real GDP growth is likely to accelerate to 5.5% in 2015 from an estimated 5.1% in 2014 on the back of improving terms of trade and fiscal efficiency, we note that broad structural reforms will be necessary in order to return to the 6.0%+ growth rates tha t the government is targeting. However , w ith a positive demographic outlook that will make the country increasingly attractive in terms of manufacturing, real GDP growth should be relatively broad-based across the archipelago. With food , drink and retail sector investments likely to be more forthcoming in the coming years, dynamism in consumer-facing sectors will consequently remain buo yant to support demand growth. Indonesia remains one of the most exciting emerging market prospects, in our view.

Headline Industry Data

  • Food consumption (local currency) forecast growth in 2015 = +9.4%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast 2014 to 2019= +9.8%.

  • Alcoholic drinks value sales growth (local currency) in 2015 = +13.3%; CAGR forecast 2014 to 2019 = +11.6%.

  • Soft drinks value sales growth (local currency) in 2015 = +11.4%; CAGR forecast 2014 to 2019= +11.6%.

  • Mass grocery retail value sales growth in 2015 = +14.0%; CAGR forecast 2014 to 2019 = +13.6%.

Key Industry Trends

Indofood and BR F Form JV: In late 2014, Indonesian food giant Indofood and Brazilian food group BRF signed a memorandum of understanding to form a joint venture that will 'explore the poultry and prepared food businesses in Indonesia'. The companies plan to invest a combined USD200mn in the venture over the next three years. The joint venture, in which both partners will own a 50% stake, marks BRF's entry into Indonesia, a market 'experiencing a significant protein consumption growth', according to the company. The move corresponds to BRF's strategy of globalisation, by accessing local markets, boosting it brands and expanding its product portfolio across the world.

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Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Food
8
Drink
10
Mass Grocery Retail
12
Industry Forecast
14
Consumer Outlook
14
Food
15
Food Consumption
15
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
17
Confectionery
18
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
19
Drink
19
Hot Drinks
19
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical & Forecasts, 2010-2017
21
Alcoholic Drinks
21
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
23
Soft Drinks
24
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
26
Mass Grocery Retail
27
Table: MGR Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
28
Table: Average Outlet Sales By Format - 2011
29
Trade
29
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
30
Macroeconomic Forecasts
31
Table: India - Economic Activity
35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
36
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q213
37
Table: Asia Pacific Q213 Selected Countries Risk/Reward Sub Factor Ratings (scores out of 10)
39
India Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Market Overview
41
Food
41
Food Processing
41
Food Consumption
41
Confectionery
42
Canned Food
44
Trade
44
Agriculture
44
Rice
45
Dairy
46
Drink
48
Soft Drinks
48
Hot Drinks
49
Alcoholic Drinks
50
Mass Grocery Retail
54
Table: Structure Of India's Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2005-2011
56
Table: Structure Of India's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales By Format (US$mn), 2005-2011
56
Table: Structure Of India's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales By Format (INRmn), 2005-2011
57
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) - Historical Data & Forecasts
57
Industry Trends And Developments
58
Food
58
Drink
67
Mass Grocery Retail
74
Competitive Landscape
78
Table: Key Players In India's Food & Drink Sector
78
Table: Key Players In India's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
79
Company Profile
80
Hindustan Unilever Limited
80
Gujarat Co-operative Milk Marketing Federation
83
Britannia
85
PepsiCo India
88
United Breweries
91
Coca-Cola India
94
SABMiller India
97
RPG Retail
100
Pantaloon Retail India
102
Global Industry Overview
106
Table: Core Views
112
Demographic Forecast
113
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
114
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
115
Table: India's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
116
Table: India's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
116
Glossary
117
Food & Drink
117
Mass Grocery Retail
117
Methodology
119
Methodology
119
Table: Rewards
120
Table: Risks
120
Table: Weighting
121

The Indonesia Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Indonesia Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Indonesia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indonesian food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Indonesia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc