Indonesia Food & Drink Report

Published 22 May 2015

  • 115 pages
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$1,295.00
Indonesia Food & Drink Report

BMI View: We expect Indonesia's economy to pick up momentum over the course of 2015, following a disappointing performance in the first months of 2015. In Q115, real GDP growth came in below-consensus at 4.7% year-on-year (y-o-y), on the back of high borrowing costs and a challenging export outlook. Therefore, we have revised down our real GDP growth forecast to 5.3% versus 5.5% previously. We expect growth to accelerate over the coming quarters, driven by additional interest rate cuts, a more streamlined investment process and a pick-up in the pace of infrastructure investment. With food , drink and retail sector investments likely to be more forthcoming in the coming years, dynamism in consumer-facing sectors will remain buo yant and support demand growth. Indonesia remains one of the most exciting emerging market prospects, in our view.

Headline Industry Data

  • Food consumption (local currency) forecast growth in 2015 = +9.4%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast 2014 to 2019= +9.8%.

  • Alcoholic drinks value sales growth (local currency) in 2015 = +10.7%; CAGR forecast 2014 to 2019 = +10.9%.

  • Soft drinks value sales growth (local currency) in 2015 = +11.4%; CAGR forecast 2014 to 2019= +11.6%.

  • Mass grocery retail value sales growth in 2015 = +14.0%; CAGR forecast 2014 to 2019 = +13.6%.

Key Industry Trends

Poultry Is Next Step For Cargill In Indonesia : In April 2015, US-based agricultural company Cargill was looking to enter the Indonesian poultry sector as it continues investing in mills to support its rising palm oil business in the country. The move is part of its plan to pump USD1bn into various sectors in Indonesia in the coming three to four years. The company, which is 'in active discussions' with various firms to enter the poultry sector, plans to construct a new unit and enter partnerships, according to Alan Willits, Cargill's chairman for Asia-Pacific. 'We'll most likely partner with someone that is an integrated poultry...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
17
Food Consumption
17
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2019)
18
Canned Food
18
Confectionery
19
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2019)
20
Drink
22
Hot Drinks
22
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2019)
23
Alcoholic Drinks
24
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2019)
25
Soft Drinks
26
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Indonesia 2014-2019)
27
Mass Grocery Retail
30
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2019)
31
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%)
32
Trade
32
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2019)
33
Macroeconomic Forecast
34
Macroeconomic Forecasts
34
Industry Risk Reward Index
39
Asia Pacific - Risk/Reward Index
39
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Q315
41
Indonesia - Risk/Reward Index
44
Market Overview
46
Food
46
Food Production
46
Confectionery
47
Halal
47
Agriculture
48
Organics
49
Drink
49
Soft Drinks
49
Alcoholic Drinks
50
Hot Drinks
50
Mass Grocery Retail
51
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Indonesia 2006-2015)
53
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Indonesia 2006-2015)
53
Industry Trends And Developments
54
Food
54
Drink
59
Key Industry Trends And Developments
59
Mass Grocery Retail
63
Key Industry Trends And Developments
63
Competitive Landscape
66
Table: Key Players In Indonesia's Food Sector
66
Table: Key Players In Indonesia's Drink Sector
66
Table: Key Players In Indonesia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
67
Company Profile
68
Indofood Sukses Makmur Terbuka
68
PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia
71
Nestl- Indonesia
75
Mayora Indah
78
PT Unilever Indonesia
80
Coca-Cola Amatil
83
Aqua Golden Mississippi
87
Matahari Putra Prima
89
Hero Supermarket
92
Global Industry Overview
95
Table: Food and Drink Core Views - Q115 Roundup
102
Demographic Forecast
104
Demographic Outlook
104
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Indonesia 1990-2025)
105
Table: Key Population Ratios (Indonesia 1990-2025)
105
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Indonesia 1990-2025)
106
Table: Population By Age Group (Indonesia 1990-2025)
106
Table: Population By Age Group % (Indonesia 1990-2025)
107
Glossary
109
Food & Drink
109
Mass Grocery Retail
109
Methodology
111
Industry Forecast Methodology
111
Sector-Specific Methodology
112
Sources
112
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
113
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators
114
Table: Weighting
115

The Indonesia Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Indonesia Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Indonesia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indonesian food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Indonesia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc