BMI View: Across Indonesia's different freight modes, we are expecting cargo volume growth in a range of 0.5%-8% during 2015. Aviation and rail will lead the way, with road freight growing more slowly. Despite a slow start in Q115, both GDP and foreign trade expansion will support the freight sector. In the medium to longer term we continue to think that the key to sustainable growth is investment in port infrastructure, including road and rail links in the hinterland areas. The new government wants to push forward on this front. Capacity problems remain an issue, but new investment projects in ports, airports, road and rail are being launched.
Despite a slower first quarter and some negative factors, such as adverse terms of trade and high interest rates, we remain optimistic over Indonesia's economic prospects in 2015. Q115 GDP growth slowed to 4.7%, down from 5.0% in Q414. This was due to a contraction in the export sector, weakness in domestic consumer demand, and delays in the government's ambitious infrastructure investment programmes. Taking these factors together, we are now forecasting Indonesian GDP growth of 5.3% this year, up from 5.0% in 2014.
Exports in February 2015 were down 16.0% in year-on-year terms, influenced by lower mining exports (down 20.8% y-o-y). The government's ban on the export of unprocessed mineral ores (designed to boost value-added smelting and refining activities at home) has been a factor. Imports have also faced downward pressure because of the weak rupiah. Despite these concerns and a poor start to the year, BMI believes Indonesia's trade performance will improve over 2015. We are forecasting that for the year a whole exports will accelerate to rise by 3.1% (up from 0.8% in 2015) while the pace of import growth will rise more marginally, to 2.3% (from 2.2% in 2014). As a result, total trade will grow by 2.7%.
Indonesia's trade patterns over the next five years look like being significantly beneficial to road freight. This is...
The Indonesia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's Indonesia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indonesian freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Indonesian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.