Indonesia Freight Transport Report

Published 02 June 2015

  • 57 pages
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$1,295.00
Indonesia Freight Transport Report

BMI View: Across Indonesia's different freight modes, we are expecting cargo volume growth in a range of 0.5%-8% during 2015. Aviation and rail will lead the way, with road freight growing more slowly. Despite a slow start in Q115, both GDP and foreign trade expansion will support the freight sector. In the medium to longer term we continue to think that the key to sustainable growth is investment in port infrastructure, including road and rail links in the hinterland areas. The new government wants to push forward on this front. Capacity problems remain an issue, but new investment projects in ports, airports, road and rail are being launched.

Despite a slower first quarter and some negative factors, such as adverse terms of trade and high interest rates, we remain optimistic over Indonesia's economic prospects in 2015. Q115 GDP growth slowed to 4.7%, down from 5.0% in Q414. This was due to a contraction in the export sector, weakness in domestic consumer demand, and delays in the government's ambitious infrastructure investment programmes. Taking these factors together, we are now forecasting Indonesian GDP growth of 5.3% this year, up from 5.0% in 2014.

Exports in February 2015 were down 16.0% in year-on-year terms, influenced by lower mining exports (down 20.8% y-o-y). The government's ban on the export of unprocessed mineral ores (designed to boost value-added smelting and refining activities at home) has been a factor. Imports have also faced downward pressure because of the weak rupiah. Despite these concerns and a poor start to the year, BMI believes Indonesia's trade performance will improve over 2015. We are forecasting that for the year a whole exports will accelerate to rise by 3.1% (up from 0.8% in 2015) while the pace of import growth will rise more marginally, to 2.3% (from 2.2% in 2014). As a result, total trade will grow by 2.7%.

Indonesia's trade patterns over the next five years look like being significantly beneficial to road freight. This is...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
10
Economic
12
Operational Risk
14
Industry Forecast
16
Trade Forecast
16
Table: Trade Overview (Indonesia 2012-2019)
19
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Indonesia 2012-2019)
19
Table: Main Import Partners
21
Table: Main Export Partners
21
Road Freight Forecast
22
Table: Road Freight (Indonesia 2012-2019)
24
Rail Freight Forecast
24
Table: Rail Freight (Indonesia 2012-2019)
26
Air Freight Forecast
27
Table: Air Freight (Indonesia 2012-2019)
29
Company Profile
30
Garuda Indonesia (Cargo)
30
Political Outlook
33
Domestic Politics
33
Long-Term Political Outlook
36
Table: Indonesia Political Overview
40
Oil Price Outlook
41
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
41
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
41
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
42
Macroeconomic Forecast
44
Demographic Forecast
49
Demographic Outlook
49
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Indonesia 1990-2025)
50
Table: Key Population Ratios (Indonesia 1990-2025)
50
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Indonesia 1990-2025)
51
Table: Population By Age Group (Indonesia 1990-2025)
51
Table: Population By Age Group % (Indonesia 1990-2025)
52
Methodology
54
Industry Forecast Methodology
54
Sector-Specific Methodology
55
Sources
57

The Indonesia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

BMI Research's Indonesia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indonesian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indonesian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc