Indonesia Mining Report

Published 26 March 2015

  • 114 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Indonesia Mining Report

BMI View: The export ban on raw minerals will significantly impact production growth and hamper investment for Indonesia's mining industry. We do not expect any moderation of the ban in 2015 as the government seeks to attract foreign direct investment and add value to its mining sector. A possible moderation on the ban on bauxite ore is still on the cards for 2016.

With the boom years in commodity prices behind us, we believe more miners in Indonesia will be forced to put the brakes on investment over the coming quarters. The export ban on raw minerals will significantly impact financial growth in Indonesia's mining sector. In January 2014, the government implemented the ban on unprocessed minerals, in order to stimulate smelter construction and increase mineral export value. Till this date, the government has maintained its strict ban on bauxite and nickel ore. For nickel, it is unlikely that the government will moderate its ban on ore exports given the steady pipeline of nickel smelters coming online which will help soak up mine production capacity. For bauxite, we believe a potential moderation of the ban on bauxite is still on the cards with potential announcements being made in 2016.

Peak Growth is Behind Us
Indonesia - Mining Industry Value

The support of the courts in upholding the Mining Law passed in 2009 and the support of newly elected President Joko Widodo and the parliament lends further credence to our view that the ban on ore exports will stay put in the short run. The passing of government regulation 77 in October 2014 that gives foreign players higher foreign ownership for their upstream operations with domestic downstream processing capabilities also indicates that the government is sticking to their guns to encourage the development of the downstream sector.

In the longer term, moderation on the ban still remains a possibility if Indonesia's measures fail to attract enough foreign direct investment to offset the costs it incurs. According to...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Bauxite: Output To Recover As Export Ban Eases
11
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2018)
14
Coal: Expanding, But Risks Lurk
15
Table: Indonesia - Select Coal Projects
18
Infrastructure Development A Boon
20
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2018)
21
Copper: Growth To Cool
22
Table: Indonesia - Largest Copper Projects
26
Nickel: Temporary Collapse
27
Table: Indonesia - Largest Nickel Projects
29
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2018)
31
Tin: Rising Prices To Support Production
32
Table: Tin Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2018)
36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Australia Leads, Frontier Markets To Remain Laggards
37
An Improving Regulatory Landscape
38
Largest Quarterly Change In Laos
39
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index
40
Indonesia - Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Rewards
41
Industry Rewards
41
Country Rewards
41
Risks
42
Industry Risks
42
Country Risks
42
Table: Indonesia - Mining Industry Value & Mineral Production Forecasts
43
Regulatory Development
44
Key Developments
44
Policy Moderation On The Cards
44
Table: Indonesia - Export Restrictions On Select Commodities
44
New Mining Law of 2009
46
Tax Regime
47
Corruption To Remain Key Concern
47
Table: Asia - Regulatory Outlook
48
Table: Political Overview
48
Commodities Forecast
50
Commodity Strategy
50
Ferrous Metals:
51
Non-Ferrous Metals:
54
Aluminium: Prices To Remain Elevated Following Recent Dip
54
Copper: Chinese Weakness To Create Further Headwinds
55
Nickel: No Sustained Rally Ahead
57
Zinc: Subdued Short-Term Outlook Before Multi-Year Gains
60
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
61
Competitive Landscape
63
Key Players
63
Table: Financial Data For Key Mining Firms Listed In Indonesia
64
Company Profile
65
PT Antam
65
Table: PT Antam - Key Financial Data
68
PT Bumi Resources
69
Table: Bumi Resources - Key Financial Data
72
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG)
73
Table: ITMG - Key Financial Data
77
PT Timah
78
Table: PT Timah - Key Financial Data
81
Regional Overview
82
Asia Overview
82
Global Industry Overview
88
Capex Cutbacks To Yield Rewards
88
M&A Activity To Pick Up
90
High Grade Opportunities In Iron Ore
90
Shifting Centre Of Growth For Platinum
91
Chinese & Indian Outbound Mineral Investment To Gather Pace
92
Shake-Up For Global Rare Earths Industry
93
Methodology
95
Industry Forecast Methodology
95
Sources
96
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
97
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
99

The Indonesia Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Indonesia Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Indonesia.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Indonesia's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc