Indonesia Oil & Gas Report

Published 13 August 2015

  • 204 pages
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$1,295.00
Indonesia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Economic growth, supportive demographics and a weak oil price environment will support consumption growth in Indonesia. However, a tough regulatory environment and weak oil prices will remain an impediment to hydrocarbon production over the next decade. More comprehensive reforms are required to turn Indonesia's upstream segment around.

Headline Forecasts (Indonesia 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Ministry of Energy and Mines, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 929.8 901.0 916.2 932.1 909.9 892.9 878.0
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 914.3 868.6 781.8 785.7 777.8 770.0 773.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 1,686.6 1,716.4 1,795.4 1,858.1 1,903.0 1,939.8 1,987.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 71.7 69.6 68.8 68.9 70.3 68.8 67.2
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 40.3 42.3 44.0 46.2 48.0 49.9 51.9

The main trends and developments we h ighlight for Indonesia's oil & gas sector are:

  • Early draft proposals of regulatory reforms of the oil and gas industry point towards the state maintaining its dominant role in the country's upstream segment.

  • Despite a brief upturn in crude oil output in 2015 and 2016, production will revert to a downtrend from 2017 in the absence of large new projects to replace mature fields.

  • The postponement of key projects and uncertainty regarding the future of the gas-rich Mahakam block has led us to downgrade our forecasts for Indonesia's gas production. We see stagnation in production growth between 2015 and 2017 and a decline thereafter to 2020. Although we expect a small uptick from 2021, this will be highly dependent on FIDs made for significant projects, which could be further postponed without an improvement in regulatory and price environment.

  • Despite this outlook,...

BMI Industry View
9
Table: Headline Forecasts (Indonesia 2013-2019)
9
SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
13
Uptream Exploration
13
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Indonesia 2013-2018)
13
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Indonesia 2019-2024)
13
Table: Distribution Of CBM In Indonesia
16
Table: CBM Block Holders
17
Table: Shale Targets In Indonesia
19
Table: Gas Pricing In Indonesia (2011)
20
Upstream Projects
21
Table: Indonesia Major Upstream Projects
21
Upstream Production - Oil
28
Table: Oil Production (Indonesia 2013-2018)
28
Table: Oil Production (Indonesia 2019-2024)
28
Upstream Production - Gas
31
Table: Gas Production (Indonesia 2013-2018)
31
Table: Gas Production (Indonesia 2019-2024)
31
Refining
36
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Indonesia 2013-2018)
36
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Indonesia 2019-2024)
36
Refining Capacity
37
Refined Oil Production
38
Refined Fuels Consumption
40
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Indonesia 2019-2024)
40
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Indonesia 2013-2018)
40
Table: Indonesia: Fuel Prices Before And After Fuel Subsidy Reform (IDR Per Litre)
43
Long-Term Gains
44
Risks To Outlook
45
Gas Consumption
46
Table: Gas Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2018)
46
Table: Gas Consumption (Indonesia 2019-2024)
46
Trade - Oil
51
Crude Oil Trade
51
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Indonesia 2013-2018)
51
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Indonesia 2019-2024)
51
Refined Oil Trade
56
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Indonesia 2013-2018)
56
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Indonesia 2019-2024)
56
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Indonesia 2013-2018)
59
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Indonesia 2019-2024)
59
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
60
Table: Gas Net Exports (Indonesia 2013-2018)
60
Table: Gas Net Exports (Indonesia 2019-2024)
60
LNG
63
Table: Indonesia: Operational, Planned And Proposed LNG Receiving Terminals
63
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
68
Industry Risk Reward Index
68
Table: Asia: Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
68
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Sustained Low Oil Prices Weaken Production Outlook
69
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
69
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Political Uncertainties Undercut Demand Growth Outlook
72
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
72
Indonesia - Risk/Reward Index
75
Indonesia Upstream Index - Overview
75
Indonesia Upstream Index - Rewards
75
Indonesia Upstream Index - Risks
75
Indonesia Downstream Index - Overview
76
Market Overview
77
Indonesia Energy Market Overview
77
Overview/State Role
78
Licensing And Regulation
79
Table: Gas Pricing In Indonesia (2011)
83
Government Policy
83
Table: New Local Content Requirement
84
Table: Indonesia: Fuel Prices Before And After Fuel Subsidy Reform (IDR per litre)
85
Licensing Rounds
85
Table: 2014 First Petroleum Licensing Round
86
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
87
Oil Refineries
88
Table: Refineries In Indonesia
89
Table: Proposed/Planned Capacity Expansion
89
Service Stations
93
Oil Terminals/Ports/Storage Units
94
Table: Crude Oil & Oil Products Tan Terminals In Indonesia
94
Oil Pipelines
95
LNG Liquefaction Terminals
96
Table: LNG Liquefaction Terminals In Indonesia
96
LNG Regasification Terminals
99
Table: LNG Regasification Terminals In Indonesia
99
Gas Pipelines
102
Competitive Landscape
104
Competitive Landscape Summary
104
Table: Key Players - Indonesian Oil And Gas Sector
106
Table: Key Upstream Players
106
Table: Key Downstream Players
107
Company Profile
108
Pertamina
108
Chevron Indonesia
116
ExxonMobil Indonesia
120
BP Indonesia
124
CNOOC Indonesia
128
ConocoPhillips Indonesia
132
Total E&P Indonesia
135
Medco Energi
138
Eni Indonesia
143
Ophir Energy/Salamander Energy
147
Other Summaries
151
Regional Overview
163
Asia Oil And Gas Regional Overview
163
Global Industry Overview
168
Global Energy Market Overview
168
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
168
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
171
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
172
Appendix
174
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
174
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
174
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
175
Asia - Regional Appendix
177
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
177
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
178
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
179
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
180
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
181
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
182
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
183
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
184
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
185
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
186
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
187
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
188
Indonesia - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
189
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Indonesia 2013-2018)
189
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Indonesia 2019-2024)
189
Indonesia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecast
190
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Indonesia 2013-2018)
190
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Indonesia 2019-2024)
191
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Indonesia 2013-2018)
192
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Indonesia 2019-2024)
193
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Indonesia 2013-2018)
195
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Indonesia 2019-2024)
196
Glossary
197
Table: Glossary Of Terms
197
Methodology
199
Industry Forecast Methodology
199
Source
201
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
201
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
203
Table: Weighting
204

The Indonesia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Indonesia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Indonesia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indonesian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Indonesia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indonesian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indonesian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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