Indonesia Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Indonesia Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: An uncertain regulatory environment and low oil prices will impede exploration and hydrocarbons in Indonesia. Outlook for the downstream sector is more positive as economic growth will support refined fuels consumption growth and refinery projects have attracted interest from overseas investors.

Headline Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 901.0 887.8 852.3 845.4 836.9 823.1 816.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 70.7 70.8 67.3 69.0 68.2 67.9 67.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 42.3 44.0 46.2 48.0 49.9 51.9 54.0
Refined products production, 000b/d 868.6 781.8 785.7 777.8 770.0 773.9 851.3
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 1,716.4 1,795.4 1,858.1 1,903.0 1,939.8 1,987.4 2,026.7
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

  • Indonesia's crude oil production is on a long-term decline and the country will become a net importer of crude oil from 2020. As firms continue to relinquish their exploration and production blocks, we see limited upside risks to production.

  • Indonesia's refining capacity is set to expand by 510,000b/d over the next decade as several of the country's aging refineries undergo upgrading and the expected start-up of the Bontang refinery in 2022. This will reduce Indonesia's refined fuels deficit, though it will remain a sizeable net importer to 2025. Foreign investors continue to be interested in the country's refining projects.

  • Indonesia is forecast to maintain self-sufficiency in natural gas over the next 10 years, but stagnant production and rising domestic demand will progressively require the country to reduce its gas exports to prioritise satisfying domestic needs. We highlight that greater commercialisation of the country's vast CBM reserves could help to ease the pressure, though regulatory uncertainties and environmental concerns pose headwinds.

  • To attract investments into unconventional, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) introduced new production sharing contracts (PSCs) in November 2015 which allow the percentage split between the contractor and the government to be adjusted based on the amount of production.

  • The MEMR invited firms to submit bids to explore three non-conventional oil and gas blocks in the country under this new regulation. These blocks are Blora in East and West Java; Batu Ampar in East Kalimantan; and Central Bangkanai in Central and East Kalimantan. Interested companies should submit their bids electronically by December 15 2015.

  • We believe that the proposed amendment to Indonesia's oil and gas law, which points towards greater state involvement in the upstream sector, together with the low oil price environment will serve to dampen investor interest in the upcoming licensing round in 2016.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Uptream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Table: Distribution Of CBM In Indonesia
16
Table: CBM Block Holders
17
Table: Shale Targets In Indonesia
19
Table: Gas Pricing In Indonesia (2011)
20
Upstream Projects
21
Table: Indonesia - Major Upstream Projects
21
Upstream Production - Oil
40
Latest Updates
40
Structural Trends
40
Table: Oil Production (Indonesia 2014-2019)
42
Table: Oil Production (Indonesia 2020-2025)
42
Upstream Production - Gas
43
Latest Updates
43
Structural Trends
43
Table: Gas Production (Indonesia 2014-2019)
47
Table: Gas Production (Indonesia 2020-2025)
47
Refining
48
Latest Updates
48
Structural Trends
48
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Indonesia 2014-2019)
51
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Indonesia 2020-2025)
51
Refined Fuels Consumption
52
Latest Updates
52
Structural Trends
52
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Indonesia 2014-2019)
54
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Indonesia 2020-2025)
54
Gas Consumption
55
Latest Updates
55
Structural Trends
55
Table: National Infrastructure Development Plan 2016
57
Table: Gas Consumption (Indonesia 2014-2019)
58
Table: Gas Consumption (Indonesia 2020-2025)
58
Trade - Oil
59
Crude Oil
59
Latest Updates
59
Structural Trends
59
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Indonesia 2014-2019)
61
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Indonesia 2020-2025)
61
Fuels Trade
62
Latest Updates
62
Structural Trends
62
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Indonesia 2014-2019)
65
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Indonesia 2020-2025)
65
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
66
Latest Updates
66
Structural Trends
66
Table: Challenges Facing Major Pre-FID LNG Export Projects In Indonesia
68
Table: BMI Japan Korea Marker Forecast
69
Table: Indonesia: Operational, Planned And Proposed LNG Receiving Terminals
70
Table: Gas Net Exports (Indonesia 2014-2019)
71
Table: Gas Net Exports (Indonesia 2020-2025)
71
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
72
Asia - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
72
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Persistent Oil Price Weakness Underpins Bearish Outlook
73
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
73
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Projection For Weaker Economic Growth Undermines India's Scores
76
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
76
Indonesia - Risk/Reward Index
78
Upstream Index - Overview
78
Upstream Index - Rewards
78
Upstream Index - Risks
78
Downstream Index - Overview
79
Market Overview
80
Indonesia Energy Market Overview
80
Regulatory Structure
80
Fiscal Regime
81
Table: Indonesia - Upstream Tax Regime
81
Licensing Regime
81
Table: Indonesia - Licensing Regime
81
Table: New Local Content Requirement
82
Licensing Rounds
84
Table: 2014 First Petroleum Licensing Round
85
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
86
Oil Refineries
87
Table: Refineries In Indonesia
88
Service Stations
92
Oil Terminals/Ports/Storage Units
92
Table: Crude Oil & Oil Products Terminals In Indonesia
93
Oil Pipelines
94
LNG Liquefaction Terminals
95
Table: LNG Liquefaction Terminals In Indonesia
95
LNG Regasification Terminals
98
Table: LNG Regasification Terminals In Indonesia
98
Gas Pipelines
101
Competitive Landscape
104
Table: Key Players - Indonesian Oil And Gas Sector
106
Table: Key Upstream Players
106
Table: Key Downstream Players
107
Company Profile
108
Pertamina
108
Chevron Indonesia
116
ExxonMobil Indonesia
121
BP Indonesia
125
CNOOC Indonesia
129
ConocoPhillips Indonesia
133
Total E&P Indonesia
137
Medco Energi
141
Eni Indonesia
146
Ophir Energy
150
Other Summaries
154
Regional Overview
168
Industry Trend Analysis
168
Glossary
176
Table: Glossary Of Terms
176
Methodology
178
Industry Forecast Methodology
178
Source
180
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
180
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
182
Table: Weighting
183

The Indonesia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Indonesia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Indonesia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indonesian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Indonesia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indonesian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indonesian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.