Indonesia Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Indonesia Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Regulatory uncertainty and low oil prices will impede exploration in Indonesia. Though the refinery upgrade and newbuild projects draw interest from national oil companies, they are progressing slowly and Indonesia will remain a large importer of refined fuels.

Headline Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 901.8 897.5 913.0 893.2 875.0 841.5 809.6
Refined products production, 000b/d 854.2 849.9 845.7 841.5 837.3 833.1 828.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 1,777.5 1,858.9 1,923.4 1,969.8 2,007.9 2,047.1 2,087.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 70.7 82.6 82.9 83.3 75.0 68.2 63.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 41.1 42.7 44.8 46.6 48.5 50.4 52.5
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

  • We believe that the proposed amendment to Indonesia's oil and gas law will create regulatory uncertainty. Together with the low oil price environment, it will serve to dampen investor interest in the upcoming licensing round in 2016.

  • We have revised up our forecast for Indonesia's 2016 crude oil and gas production, as higher than expected production ramp-up at several major projects will offset mature field decline. Production will fall from 2017 for crude oil and from 2018 for gas.

  • We have downgraded Indonesia's refining capacity forecast. We believe that delays to the upgrading of the Cilacap refinery, the first among a pipeline of refinery upgrade and newbuild projects, will push back successive projects.

  • The weak oil price environment is a boon for Indonesia's refined products consumption. Combined with a bright macroeconomic outlook, we maintain our forecast for the country's refined products consumption to increase at an average rate of 1.8% per annum over the next decade.

  • Indonesia's gas consumption will increase at an average rate of 4.1% per annum over the next decade, as a result of a greater shift to gas-fired electricity generation in the power sector. We highlight upside risks to our forecast from greater gas usage in power, transportation and the residential sectors.

  • Due to declining crude oil production, Indonesia will still turn from a net exporter of crude oil to a net importer in 2020, despite our downwardly revised forecast for Indonesia's refining capacity.

  • Indonesia will become a LNG net importer by 2022. High regulatory uncertainty and an oversupplied regional LNG market have prompted us to exclude pre-FID LNG projects from our forecast.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Uptream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Table: Distribution Of CBM In Indonesia
14
Table: CBM Block Holders
15
Table: Shale Targets In Indonesia
17
Table: Gas Pricing In Indonesia (2011)
18
Upstream Projects
19
Table: Indonesia - Major Upstream Projects
19
Upstream Production - Oil
37
Latest Updates
37
Structural Trends
37
Table: Oil Production (Indonesia 2014-2019)
39
Table: Oil Production (Indonesia 2020-2025)
39
Upstream Production - Gas
40
Latest Updates
40
Structural Trends
40
Table: Gas Production (Indonesia 2014-2019)
42
Table: Gas Production (Indonesia 2020-2025)
42
Refining
43
Latest Updates
43
Structural Trends
43
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Indonesia 2014-2019)
47
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Indonesia 2020-2025)
47
Refined Fuels Consumption
48
Latest Updates
48
Structural Trends
48
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Indonesia 2014-2019)
50
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Indonesia 2020-2025)
50
Gas Consumption
51
Latest Updates
51
Structural Trends
51
Table: National Infrastructure Development Plan 2016
53
Table: Gas Consumption (Indonesia 2014-2019)
54
Table: Gas Consumption (Indonesia 2020-2025)
54
Trade - Oil
55
Crude Oil
55
Latest Updates
55
Structural Trends
55
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Indonesia 2014-2019)
57
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Indonesia 2020-2025)
57
Fuels Trade
58
Latest Updates
58
Structural Trends
58
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Indonesia 2014-2019)
60
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Indonesia 2020-2025)
61
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
62
Latest Updates
62
Structural Trends
62
Table: Challenges Facing Major Pre-FID LNG Export Projects In Indonesia
64
Table: BMI Japan Korea Marker Forecast
65
Table: Gas Net Exports (Indonesia 2014-2019)
66
Table: Gas Net Exports (Indonesia 2020-2025)
67
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
68
Asia - Risk/Reward Index
68
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
69
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Production Cuts Reinforce Bearish Outlook
70
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
71
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Refinery Developments Lift Scores For Malaysia And The Philippines
72
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
73
Indonesia - Risk/Reward Index
74
Upstream Index - Overview
74
Upstream Index - Rewards
74
Upstream Index - Risks
74
Downstream Index - Overview
75
Market Overview
76
Indonesia Energy Market Overview
76
Regulatory Structure
76
Fiscal Regime
77
Table: Indonesia - Upstream Tax Regime
77
Licensing Regime
78
Table: Indonesia - Licensing Regime
78
Table: New Local Content Requirement
79
Licensing Rounds
80
Table: 2015 Licensing Round
81
Table: 2014 First Petroleum Licensing Round
82
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
84
Oil Refineries
84
Table: Refineries In Indonesia
84
Service Stations
86
Oil Terminals/Ports/Storage Units
86
Table: Crude Oil & Oil Products Terminals In Indonesia
87
Oil Pipelines
88
LNG Liquefaction Terminals
89
Table: LNG Liquefaction Terminals In Indonesia
89
LNG Regasification Terminals
91
Table: LNG Regasification Terminals In Indonesia
91
Gas Pipelines
94
Competitive Landscape
97
Company Profile
100
Pertamina
100
Latest Updates
100
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Indonesia
101
Table: Major Downstream Assets In Indonesia
101
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
101
Regional Overview
102
Asia Regional Overview
102
Glossary
110
Table: Glossary Of Terms
110
Methodology
112
Industry Forecast Methodology
112
Source
114
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
114
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
116
Table: Weighting
117

The Indonesia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Indonesia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Indonesia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indonesian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Indonesia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indonesian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indonesian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.