Indonesia Oil & Gas Report

Published 14 May 2015

  • 208 pages
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$1,295.00
Indonesia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Economic growth, supportive demographics and a weak oil price environment will support consumption growth in Indonesia. However, production weakness and infrastructure bottlenecks are constraints to further growth in consumption particularly in the second half of our forecast period from 2019 to 2024. More comprehensive reforms are required to turn Indonesia's upstream segment around.

Headline Forecasts (Indonesia 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Ministry of Energy and Mines, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 927.2 894.1 909.3 925.3 902.9 886.1 870.9
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 914.3 868.6 781.8 785.7 777.8 770.0 773.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 1,686.6 1,716.4 1,795.4 1,858.1 1,903.0 1,939.8 1,987.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 69.9 67.1 66.3 66.4 66.4 64.9 63.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 40.2 41.8 43.3 44.7 45.8 46.0 46.5

The main trends and developments we h ighlight for Indonesia's oil & gas sector are:

  • Early draft proposals of regulatory reforms of the oil and gas industry point towards the state maintaining its dominant role in the country's upstream segment.

  • Despite a brief upturn in crude oil output in 2015 and 2016, production will revert to a downtrend from 2017 in the absence large new projects to replace mature fields.

  • The postponement of key projects and uncertainty regarding the future of the gas-rich Mahakam block has led us to downgrade our forecasts for Indonesia's gas production. We see stagnation in production growth between 2015 and 2017 and a decline thereafter to 2020. Although we expect a small uptick from 2021, this will be highly dependent on FIDs made for significant projects, which could be further postponed without an improvement in regulatory and...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
9
Table: Headline Forecasts (Indonesia 2013-2019)
9
SWOT
11
Oil & Gas SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
12
Uptream Exploration
12
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Indonesia 2013-2018)
12
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Indonesia 2019-2024)
12
Table: Distribution Of CBM In Indonesia
16
Table: CBM Block Holders
17
Table: Shale Targets In Indonesia
19
Table: Gas Pricing In Indonesia (2011)
20
Upstream Projects
21
Table: Indonesia Major Upstream Projects
21
Upstream Production - Oil
27
Table: Oil Production (Indonesia 2013-2018)
27
Table: Oil Production (Indonesia 2019-2024)
27
Upstream Production - Gas
30
Table: Gas Production (Indonesia 2013-2018)
30
Table: Gas Production (Indonesia 2019-2024)
30
Refining
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Indonesia 2013-2018)
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Indonesia 2019-2024)
34
Refining Capacity
35
Refined Oil Production
36
Refined Fuels Consumption
38
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Indonesia 2013-2018)
38
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Indonesia 2019-2024)
38
Table: Indonesia: Fuel Prices Before And After Fuel Subsidy Reform (IDR Per Litre)
41
Long-Term Gains
42
Risks To Outlook
43
Gas Consumption
44
Table: Gas Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2018)
44
Table: Gas Consumption (Indonesia 2019-2024)
44
Trade - Oil
49
Crude Oil Trade
49
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Indonesia 2013-2018)
49
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Indonesia 2019-2024)
49
Refined Oil Trade
53
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Indonesia 2013-2018)
53
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Indonesia 2019-2024)
53
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Indonesia 2013-2018)
57
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Indonesia 2019-2024)
57
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
58
Table: Gas Net Exports (Indonesia 2013-2018)
58
Table: Gas Net Exports (Indonesia 2019-2024)
58
LNG
61
Table: Indonesia: Operational, Planned And Proposed LNG Receiving Terminals
61
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
66
Industry Risk Reward Index
66
Table: Asia: Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
66
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Weak Oil Price Takes Its Toll
67
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
67
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Weak Prices Provide Little Cheer
69
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
69
Indonesia - Risk/Reward Ratings
72
Indonesia Upstream Index - Overview
72
Indonesia Upstream Index - Rewards
72
Indonesia Upstream Index - Risks
72
Indonesia Downstream Index - Overview
72
Market Overview
74
Indonesia Energy Market Overview
74
Overview/State Role
75
Licensing And Regulation
77
Table: Gas Pricing In Indonesia (2011)
81
Government Policy
81
Table: New Local Content Requirement
82
Table: Indonesia: Fuel Prices Before And After Fuel Subsidy Reform (IDR per litre)
83
Licensing Rounds
83
Table: 2014 First Petroleum Licensing Round
83
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
85
Oil Refineries
85
Table: Refineries In Indonesia
85
Table: Proposed/Planned Capacity Expansion
86
Service Stations
90
Oil Terminals/Ports/Storage Units
90
Table: Crude Oil & Oil Products Tan Terminals In Indonesia
90
Oil Pipelines
91
LNG Liquefaction Terminals
92
Table: LNG Liquefaction Terminals In Indonesia
92
LNG Regasification Terminals
95
Table: LNG Regasification Terminals In Indonesia
95
Gas Pipelines
98
Competitive Landscape
101
Competitive Landscape Summary
101
Table: Key Players - Indonesian Oil And Gas Sector
102
Table: Key Upstream Players
103
Table: Key Downstream Players
103
Company Profile
104
Pertamina
104
Chevron Indonesia
111
ExxonMobil Indonesia
115
BP Indonesia
119
CNOOC Indonesia
123
ConocoPhillips Indonesia
127
Total E&P Indonesia
130
Medco Energi
133
Eni Indonesia
138
Ophir Energy/Salamander Energy
142
Other Summaries
146
Regional Overview
158
Asia Oil And Gas Regional Overview
158
Upstream Production: Affected By Weak Prices
158
Asia: Hit By Industry Spending Caution
161
Downstream: Fierce Market Competition To Endure
162
Oil Consumption: Lower Prices Compensate For Subsidy Cuts
166
Gas Consumption: South Catches Up With North
167
Markets To Watch: India And Indonesia
169
Global Industry Overview
172
Oil Price Outlook
172
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
172
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
173
Appendix
180
Asia - Regional Appendix
180
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
180
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
181
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
182
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
182
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
184
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
185
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
186
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
187
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
188
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
189
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
190
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
191
Indonesia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecast
192
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Indonesia 2013-2018)
192
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Indonesia 2019-2024)
193
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Indonesia 2013-2018)
194
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Indonesia 2019-2024)
195
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Indonesia 2013-2018)
196
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Indonesia 2019-2024)
197
Indonesia - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
199
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Indonesia 2013-2018)
199
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Indonesia 2019-2024)
199
Glossary
201
Table: Glossary Of Terms
201
Methodology
203
Industry Forecast Methodology
203
Source
205
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
205
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
207
Table: Weighting
208

The Indonesia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Indonesia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Indonesia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indonesian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Indonesia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indonesian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indonesian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc