Indonesia Power Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the power.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Indonesia Power Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: The power sector in Indonesia is one of the fastest- growing in the Asia Pacific region. The government has committed to ambitious expansion plans and a huge volume of projects are in the pipeline, encompassing coal and gas fired thermal power plants alongside a large number of hydropower and non-hydropower renewable projects. The country is attracting considerable amounts of foreign investment and opportunities abound for a range of related industries, though we do note that some barriers to entry remain and corruption is an ongoing risk. Historically, projects have been subject to extensive delays, and while we do not expect government targets to be achieved within the stated timeframe, we do expect to see significant gains in terms of total capacity and generation over our forecast period to 2024.

Headline Power Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, UN Data
Generation, Total, TWh 211.092 225.845 239.923 254.940 274.920 294.648 316.163
Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh 190.9 204.3 216.9 230.7 248.7 266.9 286.3
Capacity, Net, MW 54,275.9 55,971.2 59,065.7 62,235.4 66,144.5 69,763.1 73,361.0

Latest Updates A nd Structural Trends

  • Coal fired power remains a popular option: Aneka Tambang (Antam) recently announced plans to invest IDR1.8trn (USD132.4mn) in a coal-fired power plant in East Halmahera, North Maluku Province which will reportedly have capacity of about 80MW and will support operations of Antam's under-construction ferronickel smelter. Construction of the plant is expected to start in 2016 and Antam also plans to build another 80MW power plant, prior to construction of the second stage of the smelter.

  • In another coal orientated project, Adaro Energy is finalising deals worth about USD4.55bn in 2015 for two 100MW coal-fired power plants in South Kalimantan and the 2,000MW Batang power project in Central Java.

  • Projects such as these contribute to our forecasts for growth in thermal power which will contribute to an increase in total electricity generation from 225.84TWh in 2015 to 406.87TWh at the end of the forecast period in 2024.

  • Renewable energy will also contribute to this growth and a range of projects are underway, including the 62.5MW wind farm in South Sulawesi province under development by Singapore-based Asia Green Capital Partners. Construction on the facility is expected to commence in May 2016.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Indonesia Snapshot
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Indonesia 2013-2018)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Indonesia 2019-2024)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
10
Indonesia Power Forecast Scenario
11
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2013-2018)
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2019-2024)
12
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2013-2018)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2019-2024)
14
Electricity Consumption
23
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2013-2018)
23
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2019-2024)
23
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
24
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2013-2018)
24
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2019-2024)
24
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Asia Power Risk/Reward Index
26
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
31
Indonesia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Rewards
32
Risks
32
Market Overview
34
Key Policies And Market Structure
34
Regulation and Competition
34
Sustainable Energy Policies
36
Pricing
37
Indonesia Power Projects Database
38
Table: Key Projects Database
38
Competitive Landscape
60
Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN)
61
Central Java Power
62
Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGE)
62
Regional Overview
63
Shifting Fuel Dynamics In Asia Power
63
Glossary
69
Table: Glossary Of Terms
69
Methodology
70
Industry Forecast Methodology
70
Sources
73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
73
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
74
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
75

The Indonesia Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Indonesia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Indonesia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).