Indonesia Power Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the power.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Indonesia Power Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Indonesia's power sector offers both enormous growth potential and significant operational challenges. The dominance of state utility Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) and a lack of transparency in the market have deterred private investors and projects to add new capacity have been characterised by extensive delays and escalating costs. We note, however, that with the growing use of Independent Power Producer (IPPs) projects we are now seeing more foreign firms claiming a share of the project pipeline - particularly from Japan and China - and some sectors are seeing positive growth. A large number of new power plants are under construction, spanning coal, natural-gas, geothermal and hydropower, and capacity and generation are expected to increase steadily - though falling short of ambitious government targets.

Headline Power Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2020)
2014 201 5 2016 e 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, UN Data
Generation, Total, TWh 208.430 220.190 233.910 248.550 268.530 287.800 307.790
Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh 188.5 199.2 211.5 225.0 243.0 260.7 278.7
Capacity, Net, MW 54,471.1 55,043.3 58,304.1 61,695.0 66,541.8 70,714.4 73,361.0

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • In September 2016 PLN announced it had secured IDR12trn (USD916.8bn) in loans from state lenders Bank Mandiri, Bank Negara Indonesia and Bank Rakyat Indonesia to fund a range of projects under the government's plan to add 35,000MW of capacity to the domestic energy mix over the coming years.

  • Following the approvals of a new feed-in tariff (FiT) for solar power which was approved in July 2016, Indonesia is reportedly considering a new pricing and tariff scheme for the geothermal sector: prices will reportedly be set according to a sliding scale for projects ranging from 5MW to 250MW and the selling price is expected to start at USD0.14/ kWh.

  • We have updated our forecasts this quarter to reflect new industry figures, while broadly maintaining growth trends. Total electricity generation in Indonesia is forecast to increase by 6.2% in 2016 to reach 233.910TWh. More than half of electricity generated will come from relatively low cost coal-fired power plants, with hydropower and renewables claiming 6.7% and 5.3% respectively.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Indonesia Snapshot
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Indonesia 2015-2019)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Indonesia 2020-2025)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
10
Indonesia Power Forecast Scenario
11
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast
11
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast
13
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast
15
Non-Hydropower Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast
16
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity Forecasts
18
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2019)
18
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2020-2025)
19
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2019)
20
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2020-2025)
21
Electricity Consumption
21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2019)
22
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2020-2025)
22
Transmission & Distribution
22
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2019)
24
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2020-2025)
24
Industry Risk/Reward Index
25
Asia Power RRI: China's Score Slipping, India Pushing Ahead
25
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
32
Indonesia Power Risk/Reward Index
33
Rewards
33
Risks
33
Market Overview
35
Key Policies And Market Structure
35
Regulation And Competition
35
Sustainable Energy Policies
36
Pricing
37
Indonesia Power Projects Database
38
Table: Indonesia - Top 10 Projects By Capacity
40
Competitive Landscape
42
Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN)
42
Central Java Power
43
Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGE)
43
Regional Overview
44
Asia - Asia Power: Shifting Fuel Dynamics, Coal Still King
44
Glossary
51
Table: Glossary Of Terms
51
Methodology
52
Methodology And Sources
52
Industry Forecast Methodology
52
Sources
55
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
55
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
56
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
57

The Indonesia Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Indonesia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Indonesia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).