BMI View: Electricity demand is growing rapidly in Indonesia as the country's economy expands and diversifies and the national grid is extended to reach many of the more remote islands and communities. The government has set ambitious targets to rapidly expand domestic electricity capacity and generation over the next five to ten years and has enacted a number of measures to encourage private foreign investment in the power sector. Despite a significant project pipeline which encompasses coal and natural-gas fired thermal plants . and a broad range of renewables we do not expect the country to meet its targets in the current format, falling short as projects are hampered by inefficient management, widespread corruption, lack of financing and lack acquisition barriers.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, UN Data|
|Generation, Total, TWh||211.092||225.845||239.923||254.940||274.920||294.648||316.163|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||190.9||204.3||216.9||230.7||248.7||266.9||286.3|
|Capacity, Net, MW||54,275.9||55,971.2||59,065.7||62,235.4||66,144.5||69,763.1||73,361.0|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
The solar power sector will receive a boost from the introduction of a feed-in tariff which was approved in July 2016. The total quota is 250MW which is divided between various regions in the country. The tariff will also vary by region and is dependent on project size, with additional stipulations regarding the use of domestic services and materials.
In August 2016 Singapore based KS Orka Renewables Pte Ltd announced it had completed the acquisition of a 100% stake in OTP Geothermal Pte Ltd (having purchased Tata Power's 50% share) and will now progress with the development of the 240MW Sorik Merapi Geothermal Power Project in North Sumatra.
State utilitiy Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) has released the Electricity Supply Business Plan for 2016-2025. The programme includes plans to develop mobile power plants to meet rising energy demands in the short-term as well as a broad range of Independent Power Producer (IPP) projects. IPPs have so far been allocated 45.5GW of capacity, while PLN will take on 18GW and about 20GW remains unallocated.
Based on the current project pipeline, we maintain our forecasts for growth in total generation of 6.2% in 2016 to reach 239.92TWh. Coal and natural-gas fired power will see strong growth, while oil's share of the domestic energy mix is expected to contract. Similar growth is expected over the remainder of the forecast period through to 2025, although lingering behind government targets.
The Indonesia Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Indonesia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Indonesia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).