BMI View: We forecast robust and sustained growth in Indonesia's power sector. Demand on the national power network is growing rapidly - a result of both economic and population growth. The government is under significant pressure to ensure that supply catches up to demand, and further to create a surplus for energy exports. Pressure is also growing to develop greater renewable energy capacity , particularly following the effects of the pollution under the Sout heast Asian haze crisis in late- 2015. The investment environment continues to improve and we are seeing a growing number of power plant projects entering the pipeline, primarily focused on coal-fired power but with a significant number of hydropower and geothermal projects planned or underway. We do note, however, that despite ambitious plans, many projects have been subject to delays and while we expect generation and capacity to grow throughout the forecast period, we do not expect current government targets to be achievable.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, UN Data|
|Generation, Total, TWh||211.092||225.845||239.923||254.940||274.920||294.648||316.163|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||190.9||204.3||216.9||230.7||248.7||266.9||286.3|
|Capacity, Net, MW||54,275.9||55,971.2||59,065.7||62,235.4||66,144.5||69,763.1||73,361.0|
Latest Updates A nd Structural Trends
Some progress is being made in the governments 35,000MW programme. State-owned utility Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) announced it expects to complete a 100MW gas-fired power plant in the country's province of Gorontalo in February 2016, the first to be commissioned under the expansion programme.
Geothermal is another substantial growth area. In December 2015 the government launched the tender processes for development contracts of three geothermal power plants in Way Ratai, Lampung; Marana in Central Sulawesi; and Gunung Talang- Bukit Kili, West Sumatra. Exploration is expected to take around five years. The projects, worth a total of around USD380mn, are expected to start electricity generation in 2022.
On December 8 2015, President Joko Widodo launched the first of the five new floating power stations commissioned to address the country's growing demand for electricity. Widodo stated that the other four vessels will be delivered over the next six months. The vessels will primarily serve eastern Indonesia, including the islands of Sulawesi, Halmaherah, Maluku and Papua.
The broad range of projects under development support our forecasts for average annual growth in generation of 6.72% between 2016 and 2025, with total generation growing from 239.9TWh in 2016 to 432.8TWh in 2025. While the frequency of project delays presents a downside risks to forecasts, the gathering volume of investment also presents a potential upside risks to our current forecasts.
The Indonesia Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Indonesia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Indonesia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).