BMI View: A broad range of projects in an extensive project pipeline underpin our expectations for sustained growth in the Indonesian power industry over the forecast period to 2024. The country is keen to expand its electricity grid and generation capability in order to meet growing demand. T he government is undertaking market reform in order to attract a greater volu me of foreign direct investment. The country's enormous growth potential and ambitious government targets along with a range of investment incentives are therefore sure to attract more developers moving forward.
At present, we are forecasting growth in electricity generation in 2015 of 6.7%, and increase on the 5.1% growth seen in 2015, as a number of projects under the Fast-Track Programmes (1 & 2) come online. Indonesia's power sector has an extensive project pipeline, across nuclear, coal and gas fired and renewables (particularly geothermal), and these support our expectations of annual growth in generation of over 7% throughout the forecast period to 2024. We do caution, however, that projects in Indonesia are frequently subject to extensive delays which could impact upon the timeline of new capacity being added to the grid and dampen growth prospects.
Key Trends And Developments
Indonesia's President, Joko Widodo, has officially launched the government's new long-term energy plan which includes ambitions targets of an additional 35 gigawatts (GW) of power generation by 2020 - the focus is primarily on liquid natural gas (LNG) and coal fired plants with renewables expected to make up around 2GW. Over 200 projects have been earmarked for development.
Indonesia is expanding its LNG capacity, with Pertamina and Bumi Sarana Migas (a subsidiary of Kalla Group) recently agreeing a project for the construction of a new LNG terminal in Bojonegara in West Java. The terminal is expected to be completed in 2019.
Another LNG project is that of Pertamina and plantation firm Perkebunan...
The Indonesia Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Indonesia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Indonesia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).