BMI View: Mounting environmental pressure and the implementation of policy will boost the country's renewable energy industry and attract greater investment from international financial institutions (IFIs) and the Indonesian government into renewables proj ects. Power generation from non-hydro renewables will more than double over our 10-year forecast period, driven by the rapidly expanding geothermal sector.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||13.236||15.317||16.669||20.971||22.708||24.205||25.636|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||34.072||15.725||8.827||25.807||8.281||6.591||5.914|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||1,905.0||2,210.6||2,473.5||3,153.4||3,458.5||3,657.6||3,833.8|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||32.5||16.0||11.9||27.5||9.7||5.8||4.8|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
We expect non-hydro renewables generation to surge over our 10-year forecast period, increasing by nearly 140% between 2015 and 2025. This growth will primarily be driven by Indonesia's rapidly expanding geothermal sector.
In April 2016, it was announced that Indonesia and Sweden will boost cooperation in the development of renewable energy, and engage the private sector to help encourage investment into Indonesia's renewables industry.
The deployment of small-scale renewable projects is gaining traction in Indonesia: according to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, during 2015 10.7MW of renewables capacity was developed in 174 locations across the country. There are plans to build an additional 31MW in 131 locations during 2016.
Aboitiz Power International signed an agreement with Medco Power Indonesia in October 2015 to jointly carry out exploration and development of a potential 110MW greenfield geothermal power project in East Java. The project will consist of two units of 55MW each.
The government begun the tender processes for development contracts of three geothermal power plants in Way Ratai, Lampung; Marana in Central Sulawesi; and Gunung Talang-Bukit Kili, West Sumatra in December 2015. The projects, worth a total of around USD380mn, are expected to start generating electricity in 2022.
The Indonesia Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Indonesia. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Indonesia, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Indonesia, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Indonesia Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indonesia renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Indonesia renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Indonesia, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.