BMI View: The attractiveness of Indonesia's renewables industry has improved over recent years, as mounting environmental pressure and the implementation of conducive policy has encouraged investment into the sector - particularly into the geothermal segment. We expect geothermal capacity to grow from 2.1GW in 2016 to 4.2GW in 2025, making Indonesia Asia's largest geothermal market.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||13.240||15.320||16.670||20.970||22.710||24.200||25.640|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||34.070||15.730||8.830||25.810||8.280||6.590||5.910|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||1,959.0||2,272.8||2,540.6||3,237.5||3,549.2||3,752.8||3,933.8|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||32.5||16.0||11.8||27.4||9.6||5.7||4.8|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
In July, it was announced that Enel Green Power in association with the Indonesian geothermal developer PT Optima Nusantara Energi have secured the right to develop a 55MW Way Ratai geothermal power project in Lampung province. The two companies secured the exploration and development licence for the project after participating in a tender initiated by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources in December 2015. The project is slated to be completed in 2022 and power generated will be sold to PLN under a 30-year contract.
In April, Singapore-based ocean-current turbine maker Atlantis Resources and UK-based marine, subsea and renewable energy developer SBS INTL signed a MoU to establish a JV to develop a 150MW commercial-scale tidal power plant in Indonesia. The multi-phase project is estimated to cost about USD750mn. SBS completed the feasibility study and the two firms are now progressing to sign a 25-year power purchase agreement with PLN for the scheme.
In April, the Indonesian government signed a USD400mn agreement with Dutch construction firm Tidal Bridge for the construction of a power-generating bridge. The 1.3km bridge will be built across Larantuka Strait to provide a crossing between Flores Island and Adonara Island. The bridge will be equipped with built-in turbines that will help generate up to 30MW of electricity per hour from the ocean tides.
The Indonesia Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Indonesia. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Indonesia, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Indonesia, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Indonesia Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indonesia renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Indonesia renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Indonesia, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.