Indonesia Telecommunications Report

Published 07 August 2015

  • 88 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Indonesia Telecommunications Report

BMI View: The launch of 4G in the refarmed 1,800MHz spectrum has stimulated 4G network expansion in Indonesia, with at least six operators announcing ambitious expansion plans. However, strong take-up is not expected in the near term, due to the high prices of smartphones and limited spending power. Furthermore, minimum local content requirements could have the effect of increasing production cost s and , subsequently, the prices of smartphones. On the other hand, Indonesia's fibre broadband sector presents a positive outlook for growth. With the entrance of 'disruptive' ISP MyRepublic into the fibre broadband market, coupled with heavy investment from both the private and public sector, better connectivity and lower prices can be expected.

Increasing saturation of the mobile market and declining voice revenues will force Indonesia's largest telecoms operators to focus on the development of next-generation fixed and mobile data networks. The country's mobile operators are accelerating their tower outsourcing and managed services strategies in order to reduce operating costs. This is a sensible move considering their weak bottom line performances.

Key Data

  • The mobile sector grew by 6.3% y-o-y in 2014, bringing the penetration rate to 127.7%.

  • Mobile ARPUs continued their downwards trend in 2014, with market weighted average blended ARPU falling by 9.8% for the year.

  • Indonesian wireless broadband operator Internux, which operates under the 'Bolt! Super 4G' brand, has added 750,000 subscribers following commercial launch in Q413. In August 2014, the operator launched the country's first two 4G LTE smartphones on an active commercial network. The company claims that more than 90% of the operator's broadband subscribers are using Mi-Fi personal hotspot devices.

Key Trends And Developments

All large operators are making efforts to expand their Long-Term Evolution (LTE) networks. Telkomsel plans to invest IDR12.9trn (USD993.3mn) in 2015 to expand its...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Mobile And Wireline SWOT
9
Political
12
Economic
14
Operational Risk
16
Industry Forecast
18
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2019)
18
Mobile Forecasts
19
ARPU
20
Wireline Forecasts
21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Asia Pacific Risk/ Reward Index - Q4 2015
23
Outperformers (1-10)
24
Average-Performers (11-20)
25
Underperformers (21-28)
26
Table: Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Index - Q415
27
Market Overview
29
Regional Perspective
29
Table: Indonesia Mobile Market Regional Comparison, 2015
29
Key Developments
29
Market Growth
31
Market Shares
32
Usage
34
Table: Indonesia Prepaid And Postpaid ARPU By Operator (IDR)
35
Networks
36
Mobile Content
39
Fixed Line
42
Table: Telkom Key Fixed-Line Network Developments
43
Broadband
43
Table: Telkom Key Submarine Cable Developments
48
Pay-TV
48
Regulatory Development
50
Regulatory Overview
50
Table: Indonesia: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
51
Competitive Landscape
52
Table: Key Operator Revenues (USDmn)
52
Table: Spectrum Holdings For Top 5 Cellular Operators, May 2014
52
Table: Mobile Market Overview
52
Table: Indonesian Mobile Operator Minutes Of Use (MOU per Subscriber)
53
Table: Telkomsel
53
Table: Indosat
54
Table: XL Axiata
55
Company Profile
58
Telkom
58
Telkomsel
64
Indosat
68
XL Axiata
73
Demographic Forecast
77
Demographic Outlook
77
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Indonesia 1990-2025)
78
Table: Key Population Ratios (Indonesia 1990-2025)
78
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Indonesia 1990-2025)
79
Table: Population By Age Group (Indonesia 1990-2025)
79
Table: Population By Age Group % (Indonesia 1990-2025)
80
Glossary
82
Table: Glossary Of Terms
82
Methodology
84
Industry Forecast Methodology
84
Sources
86
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
86
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
87
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
88

The Indonesia Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Indonesia's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Indonesia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Indonesia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indonesian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Indonesia's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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