BMI View: Although current and ongoing investments are certainly helping to improve the country ' s fixed broadband infrastructure, geographical barriers due to Indonesia's archipelagic nature and high rollout costs will pose downside risks to the government ' s plans to develop the country ' s fixed broadband infrastructure . By engaging in 4G network and infrastructure sharing arrangements, Indonesia ' s mobile networks operators will benefit from efficiencies that will not only boost LTE rollout speeds, but also help the operators reduce costs. The proliferation of 4G mobile connections could have a dampening effect on demand for fixed broadband services. Having said this however, we envisage downside risks to 4G service uptake, as the new minimum local content requirements on LTE-enabled devices could have the effect of increasing production costs and, consequently, the price of smartphones .
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
Total subscriptions in the mobile sector grew to 323.8mn at the end of 2015, for a penetration of 125.7%. Amid market saturation, mobile operators will aim to reverse downward trending ARPUs by migrating subscribers on to postpaid plans and higher- value services.
Fixed broadb and subscribers will grow by 16.9 % in 2016 to reach 9.00mn, and this number is expected to rise to 15.76mn in 2020. However, penetration will still remain low at 5.8% as costs and topological factors limit expansion speed.
|Fixed Broadband Services To Grow Despite Popularity of 3G/4G Alternatives|
|Indonesia 3G/4G Mobile and Fixed Broadband Forecasts|
|Note: 2016-2020 are BMI forecasts. Source: National sources, BMI|
The Indonesia Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Indonesia's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Indonesia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Indonesia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indonesian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Indonesia's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.