Iran Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Iran Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Iran will be one of the fastest growing economies in the region over the next five years as investment comes into the country following the removal of sanctions.

  • Declining oil prices will force the government to cut current spending and investment in the country's infrastructure sector in 2016, which will result in slow expansion of private consumption and fixed investment.

  • Downside pressure on the Iranian rial will remain prominent, and the unit will remain sensitive to developments in nuclear negotiations over the coming quarters.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • A breakdown in the agreement over the country's nuclear programme could prompt us to revise our real GDP growth forecasts sharply downward and our inflation forecasts upward.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Iran 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 4.3 0.4 3.8 5.1
Nominal GDP, USDbn 427.1 436.1 428.8 461.4
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 16.2 12.0 10.0 14.0
Exchange rate IRR/USD, eop 26,683.00 29,980.00 32,000.00 35,000.00
Budget balance, % of GDP -1.2 -4.4 -4.8 -3.7
Current account balance, % of GDP 4.1 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
One Of MENA's Bright Spots
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Monetary Policy
11
Further Disinflation Ahead
11
Monetary Policy Framework
11
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY
12
Economic Growth Outlook II
12
Iran After Sanctions: Longer To Wait Before Investment Boom
12
Currency Forecast
14
IRR - Moderate Depreciation Coming
14
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
15
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
17
The Iranian Economy To 2025
17
Range Of Problems To Mitigate Impact Of Nuclear Deal
17
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
17
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
19
SWOT Analysis
19
BMI Political Risk Index
19
Domestic Politics
20
Huge Swing To Moderates Ahead Of Presidential Elections
20
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
20
Long-Term Political Outlook
21
Hardliners To Maintain Control, But Power Struggle Likely
21
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
25
SWOT Analysis
25
Operational Risk Index
25
Operational Risk
26
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
26
Market Size And Utilities
27
TABLE: MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA - MARKET SIZE AND UTILITIES RISK
27
Labour Costs
31
TABLE: REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
31
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
35
Global Macro Outlook
35
Brexit Risk Casts A Long Shadow
35
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
35
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
36
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
37
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
39

Assess your risk exposure in Iran with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Iran with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report