Iran Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Iran Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Iran will be one of the fastest growing economies in the region over the next five years as investment comes into the country following the removal of sanctions.

  • Declining oil prices will force the government to cut current spending and investment in the country's infrastructure sector in 2016, which will result in slow expansion of private consumption and fixed investment.

  • Downside pressure on the Iranian rial will remain prominent, and the unit will remain sensitive to developments in nuclear negotiations over the coming quarters.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • A breakdown in the agreement over the country's nuclear programme could prompt us to revise our real GDP growth forecasts sharply downward and our inflation forecasts upward.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Iran 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 4.3 0.4 3.8 5.1
Nominal GDP, USDbn 427.1 436.1 428.8 461.4
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 16.2 12.0 10.0 14.0
Exchange rate IRR/USD, eop 26,683.00 29,980.00 32,000.00 35,000.00
Budget balance, % of GDP -1.2 -4.4 -4.8 -3.7
Current account balance, % of GDP 4.1 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Rapid Increase In Growth Following Sanctions Removal
8
TABLE: KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: OPENING UP AGAIN
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
11
Sustained Deficits, But Easily Manageable
11
Structural Fiscal Position
12
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY
12
Monetary Policy
13
Sustained Disinflation To Bolster Rouhani's Position
13
Monetary Policy Framework
14
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY
14
Currency Forecast
14
IRR: Moderate Depreciation Ahead Despite Nuclear Deal
14
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
15
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
17
The Iranian Economy To 2025
17
Range Of Problems To Mitigate Impact Of Nuclear Deal
17
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
17
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
19
SWOT Analysis
19
BMI Political Risk Index
19
Domestic Politics
20
Huge Boost For Iran, Though Restrictions Remain
20
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
20
Long-Term Political Outlook
22
Hardliners To Maintain Control, But Power Struggle Likely
22
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
27
SWOT Analysis
27
Operational Risk Index
27
Operational Risk
28
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
28
Economic Openness
29
TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORT PARTNERS & PRODUCT IMPORTS, 2007-2011, USDMN
31
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
32
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
32
Availability Of Labour
33
TABLE: TOP SEVEN SOURCE COUNTRIES FOR IMMIGRANTS, 2015
34
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
39
Global Macro Outlook
39
Emerging Markets Nearing Inflexion Point
39
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
39
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
40
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
40
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
41
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
43

Assess your risk exposure in Iran with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Iran with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report