Iran will be one of the fastest growing economies in the region over the next five years as investment comes into the country following the removal of sanctions.
Declining oil prices will force the government to cut current spending and investment in the country's infrastructure sector in 2017, which will result in slow expansion of private consumption and fixed investment.
We expect the Iranian rial to remain steady over the coming quarters as depreciatory pressure have reduced following the 12% devaluation in August.
President Rouhani will win re-election in Presidential elections due in May 2017.
Key Risks To Outlook
A breakdown in the agreement over the country's nuclear programme could prompt us to revise our real GDP growth forecasts sharply downward and our inflation forecasts upward.
|Real GDP growth, % y-o-y||4.3||0.4||3.8||5.1|
|Nominal GDP, USDbn||427.1||436.1||425.9||433.7|
|Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop||16.2||12.0||14.0||12.0|
|Exchange rate IRR/USD, eop||26,683.00||29,980.00||35,500.00||36,500.00|
|Budget balance, % of GDP||-1.2||-1.5||-2.4||-1.2|
|Current account balance, % of GDP||4.1||-0.6||-0.8||-0.8|
Assess your risk exposure in Iran with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Iran with confidence.
Your subscription service includes:
- Delivery of the report in print and PDF
- Online access for 12 months
- The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
- The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
- The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
- Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report