Iran Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
×

Sign up to download the Iran Country Risk Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Iran Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Iran's agreement with the P5+1 countries over the former's nuclear programme will result in a removal of almost all sanctions on Iran in Q116.

  • Declining oil prices will force the government to cut current spending and investment in the country's infrastructure sector in 2016, which will result in slow expansion of private consumption and fixed investment.

  • Downside pressure on the Iranian rial will remain prominent, and the unit will remain sensitive to developments in nuclear negotiations over the coming quarters.

Major Forecast Changes

  • We have revised our real GDP growth forecasts this quarter, and are projecting the economy to expand by 1.0% in 2015 and 4.0% in 2016, respectively, from 2.1% and 3.0% previously.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • A breakdown in the agreement over the country's nuclear programme could prompt us to revise our real GDP growth forecasts downward and our inflation forecasts upward.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Iran 2013-2016)
Indicator 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y -1.9 -0.5 0.6 2.9
Nominal GDP, USDbn 504.7 490.0 396.6 397.7
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 43.0 16.2 12.0 10.0
Exchange rate IRR/USD, eop 24,653.00 27,073.00 33,000.00 37,000.00
Budget balance, % of GDP -1.0 -1.0 -3.0 -2.8
Current account balance, % of GDP 5.5 3.6 -0.7 -0.9
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Political Outlook I
8
Iranian Nuclear Deal: Widespread Economic And Geopolitical Implications
8
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
8
TABLE: MAIN TERMS OF IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
9
TABLE: IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL: WINNERS AND LOSERS
10
Long-Term Political Outlook
12
Hardliners To Maintain Control, But Power Struggle Likely
12
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
17
SWOT Analysis
17
BMI Economic Risk Index
17
Economic Activity I
18
Significant Uptick In Growth As Sanctions Are Removed
18
TABLE: KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
18
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECAST
18
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECAST
19
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECAST
19
Fiscal Policy
20
Deficits To Worsen, But Still Sustainable
20
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECAST
20
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY
21
Monetary Policy
22
Disinflation To Continue
22
Economic Activity II
23
Iran's Opening: 10 Charts Showing Huge Opportunities And Risks
23
Currency Forecast
25
Depreciation To Continue, But Intensity To Lessen
25
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
26
Islamic Finance
27
Islamic Banking: Slowdown In Place
27
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
31
The Iranian Economy To 2024
31
Range Of Problems To Mitigate Impact Of Nuclear Deal
31
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
31
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
35
SWOT Analysis
35
Operational Risk Index
35
Operational Risk
36
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
36
Education
37
TABLE: MENA - EDUCATION RISK
38
TABLE: TERTIARY EDUCATION GRADUATES ('000)
41
Government Intervention
42
TABLE: MENA - GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION RISK
43
TABLE: PERSONAL INCOME TAX BRACKETS
44
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
47
Global Outlook
47
Global Growth Weak As EMs Squeezed
47
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
47
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
48
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
48
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
49

Assess your risk exposure in Iran with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Iran with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print, PDF and online formats
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report