Iran will be one of the fastest growing economies in the region over the next five years as investment comes into the country following the removal of sanctions.
Declining oil prices will force the government to cut current spending and investment in the country's infrastructure sector in 2016, which will result in slow expansion of private consumption and fixed investment.
Downside pressure on the Iranian rial will remain prominent, and the unit will remain sensitive to developments in nuclear negotiations over the coming quarters.
Key Risks To Outlook
A breakdown in the agreement over the country's nuclear programme could prompt us to revise our real GDP growth forecasts sharply downward and our inflation forecasts upward.
|Real GDP growth, % y-o-y||4.3||0.4||3.8||5.1|
|Nominal GDP, USDbn||427.1||436.1||428.8||461.4|
|Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop||16.2||12.0||10.0||14.0|
|Exchange rate IRR/USD, eop||26,683.00||29,980.00||32,000.00||35,000.00|
|Budget balance, % of GDP||-1.2||-4.4||-4.8||-3.7|
|Current account balance, % of GDP||4.1||-0.6||-0.8||-0.7|
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