Iran Defence & Security Report

Published 13 May 2015

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Iran Defence & Security Report

BMI View: We expect Iran to reach a nuclear deal with the P5+1 powers in 2015, leading to a lifting of sanctions over coming quarters. This will facilitate a return to economic growth; however, progress will slow, and Tehran's military spending will therefore remain modest on a regional comparison in the short-term . That said, demand for defence equipment will be strong, as Iran continues to provide assistance to Shi'a groups across the region; seeks to narrow the gap to rival Saudi Arabia's more technologically advanced military; and invests in weapons systems to protect against a potential US/Israeli attack. Meanwhile, the government remains committed to achieving its goal of military self-sufficiency. Iran has a large number of domestic defence companies, capable of manufacturing products such as small arms, tanks , missiles and military electronics . The lifting of sanctions will eventually enable sector exports, creating trade opportunities for local manufacturers, and allowing these to partner with foreign firms to benefit from technology transfer.

In 2015 we expect Iran to reach a deal with the P5+1 powers over its nuclear programme. This will lead to a gradual lifting of sanctions, which in turn will bring the Iranian economy back to growth. That said, recovery will take time, as the country struggles to overcome logistical and bureaucratic issues associated with years of underinvestment and as the key oil sector is not expected to be able to spur a significant uptick in exports until 2016 at the very earliest. In 2015, therefore, we expect Iran's defence spending to remain modest on a regional comparison, reaching USD9.8bn. This represents a 21.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase, which may seem significant; however, it can be explained by a rise in IRR value when marked against USD. Demand for military equipment in Iran will continue to be driven by the real or perceived threat of a US/Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities; the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
14
Operational Risk
15
Industry Forecast
17
Defence Expenditure
17
Table: Defence Expenditure (Iran 2012-2019)
18
Armed Forces
21
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Iran 2005-2012)
21
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Iran 2012-2019)
22
Exports
22
Imports
23
Macroeconomic Forecasts
24
Economic Analysis
24
Table: Economic Activity (Iran 2010-2019)
30
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Iran 2012-2019)
30
Industry Risk Reward Index
32
Iran Defence Risk Reward Index
32
Table: Middle East And North Africa - Defence Industry Risk Reward Index
32
Rewards
33
Risks
33
Market Overview
35
Iran Security Overview
35
Domestic Threats
36
Regional Threats
38
International Threats
41
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
42
Iran Defence Market Overview
43
Domestic Defence Sector
45
Domestic Defence Market
47
International Partnerships and Defence Agreements
49
Table: Iran - Bilateral Defence Agreements
50
Company Profile
52
China Great Wall Industry Corporation
52
Sukhoi
54
Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant
56
Aerospace Industries Organization
57
Ammunition & Metallurgy Industries Group
59
Defence Industries Organization
60
Iran Electronics Industries
62
Regional Overview
64
Middle East And North Africa Security Overview
64
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
64
Regional Power Dynamics
72
Nuclear Proliferation
75
External Powers
76
Global Industry Overview
78
Political Risk Analysis
78
Methodology
85
Industry Forecast Methodology
85
Sector-Specific Methodology
86
Sources
87
Security Risk Index Methodology
87
Table: Indicators And Weighting
88

The Iran Defence & Security Report features BMI Research's independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Iran Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Iranian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Iran to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Iranian defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world’s major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict, or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world’s ‘wild card’ low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Defence Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and USDbn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure per capita (USD); defence budget (local currency and USDbn).
  • Armed Forces (to 2012): Manpower available for military service, manpower fit for militaryservice, army personnel, navy personnel,air force personnel, total armed forces, (‘000) (% population).
  • Arms Trade: Arms and ammunition exports and imports (USDmn); bombs, grenades and missiles exports and imports (USDmn); revolver and pistol exports and imports (USDmn); weapons excluding guns and swords exports and imports (USDmn).

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI’s heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI’s proprietary Security Risk Indices provide investors with a reliable and country-comparable guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst’s latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our Country Risk expertise, we assess the state’s vulnerability to a serious, or prolonged, terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/ Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Competitive Landscape

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries. The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting the Americas, along with potential risks in the coming year.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Defence & Security Market reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc