Iran Freight Transport Report

Published 13 August 2015

  • 69 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Iran Freight Transport Report

BMI View: An agreement was reached between Iran and the P5+1 powers in Vienna in July which should see all sanctions against the Middle Eastern country removed in 2016. This is highly positive news for the freight transport sector in Iran, in particular the shipping sector and the country's pipelines, as it will resume oil exports in full. With regards the rest of the freight transport mix, growth will be slow initially as the economy will take some time to recover. Nevertheless, growth will accelerate over the course of our medium-term forecast period to 2019, across all freight modes.

  • We forecast total road freight volumes will rise by 0.8% in 2015 to reach 109mn tonnes. Growth will be 2.8% in 2016.

  • We forecast total rail freight volumes will rise by 0.3% in 2015 to reach 33.03mn tonnes. Growth will be 1.5% in 2016.

  • We forecast total air freight volumes will rise by 0.3% in 2015 to reach 98,740 tonnes. Growth will be 1.2% in 2016.

  • We forecast total nominal trade value to rise by 7.5% to reach USD251bn in 2015. Growth will be 7.6% in 2016.

  • The top trade partners will be the UAE, China, India, South Korea and Turkey.

Trade in Iran will pick up slowly over the coming years, in line with an improving economy and the removal of sanctions. That said, the recovery will not be immediate, and real total trade will undergo another year of decline in 2015, only returning to positive territory in 2016. We expect Iran's economy to emerge from recession once the lifting of sanctions begins - yet we warn that significant impediments to growth remain, and the Vienna agreement does not presage a boom.

Our forecasts already factored in the impact of sanctions relief, but see the Iranian economy growing by only 0.6% in real terms this year - although this will pick up to 2.9% by 2016. Consumer and business confidence will be strengthened over the coming months, and we expect a temporary appreciation of the Iranian rial as well as steady gains in the Tehran stock...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
13
Operational Risk
14
Industry Forecast
16
Trade Forecast
16
Table: Trade Overview (Iran 2012-2019)
18
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Iran 2012-2019)
18
Table: Main Import Partners
19
Table: Main Export Partners
20
Road Freight Forecast
21
Table: Road Freight (Iran 2012-2019)
23
Rail Freight Forecast
24
Table: Rail Freight (Iran 2012-2019)
27
Air Freight Forecast
28
Table: Air Freight (Iran 2012-2019)
31
Market Overview
32
Company Profile
36
Iran Air Cargo
36
Political Outlook
39
Domestic Politics
39
Long-Term Political Outlook
41
Table: Iran - Political Overview
48
Oil Price Outlook
50
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
50
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
50
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
51
Macroeconomic Forecasts
53
Economy To Grow Again On Sanctions Relief
53
Table: Economic Activity (Iran 2010-2019)
59
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Iran 2012-2019)
59
Demographic Forecast
61
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Iran 1990-2025)
62
Table: Key Population Ratios (Iran 1990-2025)
62
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Iran 1990-2025)
63
Table: Population By Age Group (Iran 1990-2025)
63
Table: Population By Age Group % (Iran 1990-2025)
64
Methodology
66
Industry Forecast Methodology
66
Sector-Specific Methodology
67
Sources
69

The Iran Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Iran Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Iran to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%