BMI View: The outlook for the Iranian freight sector is positive, as a relaxation of sanctions - expected to be implemented in earnest from the third quarter of 2015 - will see the economy return to positive growth, thereby boosting demand for freight transport services. Fundamentally, the sector will also benefit from a relaxation of sanctions, as many Iranian firms have been directly targeted by restrictions, while foreign companies have been wary of entering the market. The recovery will not be explosive; there remain significant macroeconomic challenges, and the country's infrastructure also needs work - but continued investment and steady economic growth will see volumes across the country's freight transport modes continue to expand over our forecast period to 2019 and beyond.
We forecast total road freight volumes will rise by 2.1% year-on-year over 2015 to reach 109mn tonnes.
We forecast total rail freight volumes will rise by 0.7% year-on-year over 2015 to reach 33.36mn tonnes.
We forecast total air freight volumes will rise by 0.9% year-on-year over 2015 to reach 101,320 tonnes.
We forecast total nominal trade value to rise by 7.5% to reach USD251bn in 2015.
The top trade partners will be the UAE, China, India, South Korea and Turkey.
Our expectation for sanctions to be unwound on Iran from Q315 will provide a significant boost to the country's economy, and, directly and indirectly, on the country's freight transport sector. Sanctions across sectors such as on shipping, banking and oil will be relaxed as Iran complies with Western powers' demand over the dismantling of its nuclear programme. On the back of this we forecast Iran's economy to return to growth in 2015, following three years of recession.
We forecast that in 2015, Iran's road haulage volumes will enjoy positive growth for the first time since 2012, predicting a 2.1% expansion in volumes. If realised this would see 109bn tonnes transported over the course of the year. This...
The Iran Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Iran Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Iran to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.