Iran Freight Transport Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the freight transport industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, Freight Transport Risk Reward Index, Macroeconomic Forecast, Company Profiles and Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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Iran Freight Transport Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: An agreement was reached between Iran and the P5+1 powers in Vienna in July which should see all sanctions against the Middle Eastern country removed in 2016. This is highly positive news for the freight transport sector in Iran, in particular the shipping sector and the country's pipelines, as it will resume oil exports in full. With regards the rest of the freight transport mix, growth will be slow initially as the economy will take some time to recover. Nevertheless, growth will accelerate over the course of our medium-term forecast period to 2020, across all freight modes.

We forecast that total Iranian trade will see a return to real growth in 2016, following four consecutive years of decline from 2012 to 2015, as the effect of sanctions removal takes hold. The removal of almost all sanctions on Iran's economy - which we expect to occur in H116 - will cause a significant uptick in economic growth over the coming years, reaching between 3% and 6%. We expect Iran's economy to emerge from recession as the country complies with demands on its nuclear programme. Iran has huge potential across almost all sectors, not just oil and gas which attracts most of the attention, and we highlight industries related to the consumer - especially autos and food and drink.

Iranian road haulage volumes will undergo relatively strong growth in 2016, as the country begins to feel the benefit of the removal of Western sanctions against it. That said, the growth will be strong only in comparison to recent years, and will remain at around 3.0% over the course of our forecast period to 2020.

According to our forecasts, rail freight volumes in Iran will grow by 1.5% in 2016, and average 2.4% over the course of our medium-term forecast period to 2020. The primary driver of this growth will be the easing of Western sanctions against the country, and this will be bolstered by ongoing investment in the network, and a drive to make Iran a major transit country for the region. We forecast that Iranian air freight volumes will expand 1.2% in 2016, cementing the return to growth we estimate in 2015. Although slow in the near term, the expansion will accelerate in line with Iran's economic recovery and investment in the country's airports and national airline.

  • We forecast total road freight volumes will rise by 2.8% in 2016 to reach 109bn tonnes.

  • We forecast total rail freight volumes will rise by 1.5% in 2016 to reach 35.53mn tonnes.

  • We forecast total air freight volumes will rise by 1.2% in 2016 to reach 99,910 tonnes.

  • We forecast total nominal trade value to rise by 7.6% to reach USD270.5bn in 2016.

  • The top trade partners will be the UAE, China, India, South Korea and Turkey.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Freight Transport
8
Political
10
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Trade Forecast
15
Table: Trade Overview (Iran 2012-2019)
17
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Iran 2012-2019)
17
Table: Main Import Partners
18
Table: Main Export Partners
19
Road Freight Forecast
20
Table: Road Freight (Iran 2012-2019)
23
Rail Freight Forecast
24
Table: Rail Freight (Iran 2012-2019)
26
Air Freight Forecast
27
Table: Air Freight (Iran 2012-2019)
30
Market Overview
31
Company Profile
35
Iran Air Cargo
35
Political Outlook
37
Table: Main Terms Of Iran Nuclear Deal
38
Table: Iran Nuclear Deal: Winners And Losers
41
Long Term Political Outlook
46
Table: Iran - Political Overview
53
Oil Price Outlook
55
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
55
Macroeconomic Forecasts
56
Economy To Grow Again On Sanctions Relief
56
Table: Economic Activity (Iran 2010-2019)
62
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Iran 2012-2019)
62
Demographic Forecast
64
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Iran 1990-2025)
65
Table: Key Population Ratios (Iran 1990-2025)
65
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Iran 1990-2025)
66
Table: Population By Age Group (Iran 1990-2025)
66
Table: Population By Age Group % (Iran 1990-2025)
67
Methodology
69
Industry Forecast Methodology
69
Sector-Specific Methodology
70
Sources
72

The Iran Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

BMI Research's Iran Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Iran to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.