Iran Freight Transport Report

Published 19 May 2015

  • 61 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Iran Freight Transport Report

BMI View: The outlook for the Iranian freight sector is positive, as a relaxation of sanctions - expected to be implemented in earnest from the third quarter of 2015 - will see the economy return to positive growth, thereby boosting demand for freight transport services. Fundamentally, the sector will also benefit from a relaxation of sanctions, as many Iranian firms have been directly targeted by restrictions, while foreign companies have been wary of entering the market. The recovery will not be explosive; there remain significant macroeconomic challenges, and the country's infrastructure also needs work - but continued investment and steady economic growth will see volumes across the country's freight transport modes continue to expand over our forecast period to 2019 and beyond.

  • We forecast total road freight volumes will rise by 2.1% year-on-year over 2015 to reach 109mn tonnes.

  • We forecast total rail freight volumes will rise by 0.7% year-on-year over 2015 to reach 33.36mn tonnes.

  • We forecast total air freight volumes will rise by 0.9% year-on-year over 2015 to reach 101,320 tonnes.

  • We forecast total nominal trade value to rise by 7.5% to reach USD251bn in 2015.

  • The top trade partners will be the UAE, China, India, South Korea and Turkey.

Our expectation for sanctions to be unwound on Iran from Q315 will provide a significant boost to the country's economy, and, directly and indirectly, on the country's freight transport sector. Sanctions across sectors such as on shipping, banking and oil will be relaxed as Iran complies with Western powers' demand over the dismantling of its nuclear programme. On the back of this we forecast Iran's economy to return to growth in 2015, following three years of recession.

We forecast that in 2015, Iran's road haulage volumes will enjoy positive growth for the first time since 2012, predicting a 2.1% expansion in volumes. If realised this would see 109bn tonnes transported over the course of the year. This...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
13
Operational Risk
14
Industry Forecast
16
Trade Forecast
16
Table: Trade Overview (Iran 2012-2019)
18
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Iran 2012-2019)
18
Table: Main Import Partners
19
Table: Main Export Partners
20
Road Freight Forecast
21
Table: Road Freight (Iran 2012-2019)
23
Rail Freight Forecast
23
Table: Rail Freight (Iran 2012-2019)
26
Air Freight Forecast
26
Table: Air Freight (Iran 2012-2019)
28
Company Profile
29
Iran Air Cargo
29
Political Outlook
31
Domestic Politics
31
Table: Nuclear Negotiations - Key Points Of Contention
32
Confluence Of Factors Bodes Well For Deal
32
Stumbling Blocks Present, But Not Insurmountable
33
Longer Term Risks To Deal
34
Long-Term Political Outlook
35
Challenges And Threats To Stability
36
Table: Iran Political Overview
41
Oil Price Outlook
42
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
42
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
42
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
43
Macroeconomic Forecasts
45
Economy To Grow Again On Sanctions Relief
45
Table: Economic Activity (Iran 2010-2019)
51
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Iran 2012-2019)
51
Demographic Forecast
53
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Iran 1990-2025)
54
Table: Key Population Ratios (Iran 1990-2025)
54
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Iran 1990-2025)
55
Table: Population By Age Group (Iran 1990-2025)
55
Table: Population By Age Group % (Iran 1990-2025)
56
Methodology
58
Industry Forecast Methodology
58
Sector-Specific Methodology
59
Sources
61

The Iran Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Iran Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Iran to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc