Iran Infrastructure Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Infrastructure industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, BMI Industry Forecast, BMI's Infrastructure Risk Reward Index, Market Overview and Company Profiles.

Why you should buy this report

  • Gain independent insight into the outlook for the infrastructure industry through BMI's 10 year forecasts
  • Understand the market through analysis of projects , investment plans and key players
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
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Iran Infrastructure Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: As the majority of international sanctions have been lifted faster than expected and new historic data has been released, we have upwardly revised our construction industry growth forecast for Iran in 2016 from 3.2% to 4.5%. The lifting of sanctions will result in the gradual return of private investment as well as improv e Iran's access to funding for projects. As such, we expect the country's risk profile - particularly in the financing stage of the project life cycle - to continue to improv e .

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • We forecast 4.5% y-o-y real construction industry growth in Iran in 2016 and an average of 6.1% over the next five years as a result of the lifting of international sanctions and strong demand for infrastructure.

  • Persistently low oil prices - our Oil & Gas Team forecasts Brent to average USD42.5/bbl in 2016 - will reduce government revenue, limiting public spending in infrastructure.

  • As we expected, the lifting of sanctions is already having a positive impact on Iran's capability to finance infrastructure projects. Reflecting the reduced risk in the financing stage, Iran now scores 34 out of 100 in the Financing Risk pillar of our Project Risk Index (PRI), from a previous score of 18.8.

  • Greater competitiveness in Iran's labour market will be required to support growth in the construction industry. Although Iran's labour force is highly educated by regional standards, high labour costs will continue to pose a structural barrier to investment.

  • Despite an improving outlook for Iran's infrastructure sector, the country will continue to present challenges, including elevated political risk, macroeconomic weaknesses and corruption.

Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Iran 2015-2021)
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI
Construction industry value, IRRbn 1,148,519.11 1,325,968.00 1,534,316.42 1,786,684.33 2,064,963.33 2,333,473.55 2,696,861.63
Construction Industry Value, Real Growth, % y-o-y 2.10 4.45 5.71 6.45 6.58 6.00 5.57
Construction Industry Value, % of GDP 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.1 10.2 10.6

Risk/Reward Index

  • The lifting of international sanctions is having a positive impact on Iran's risks and rewards scores. Iran scores 42.3 out of 100 in our RRI for the Middle East this quarter, an improvement from last quarter's 41.0.

  • Iran scores 35.0 out of 100 for Industry Risks, reflecting the high barriers to entry and lack of competition in the infrastructure market. We expect Iran's competitive landscape to diversify considerably as the lifting of international sanctions allows foreign players to return.

  • Iran receives an improved score of 46.2 for Country Risks, but still below the regional average. The country suffers from endemic levels of corruption and although nominally independent, political interference in the judicial system is rife.

Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Iran)
Risk/Reward Index Rewards Industry Rewards Country Rewards Risks Industry Risks Country Risks
Source: BMI
42.3 42.6 42.5 42.7 41.7 35.0 46.2
BMI Industry View
5
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Iran 2015-2021)
5
Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Iran)
6
SWOT
7
Infrastructure SWOT
7
Industry Forecast
9
Iran - Sanctions Removal To Unlock Funding For Infrastructure
9
Sanctions Removal To Unlock Funding For Infrastructure
9
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Iran 2015-2025)
10
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
17
Table: Key Transport Infrastructure Projects
23
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
24
Table: Key Projects: Energy & Utilities
28
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview
29
Table: Key Projects: Construction & Social Infrastructure
32
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
33
Iran - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
33
Rewards
33
Risks
34
MENA Infrastructure RRI: Oil Prices And Security Remain Key Risks
35
Table: MENA RRI Table
40
Market Overview
41
Competitive Landscape
41
Table: Iran EQS Data
42
Company Profile
43
Iran Power Plant Projects Management Co
43
Methodology
46
Industry Forecast Methodology
46
Sector-Specific Methodology
47
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
51
Sector-Specific Methodology
52
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
52
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
53

The Iran Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Iran Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Iran to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Iranian infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).

Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.

The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).

BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and  demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.