Iran Infrastructure Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Infrastructure industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, BMI Industry Forecast, BMI's Infrastructure Risk Reward Index, Market Overview and Company Profiles.

Why you should buy this report

  • Gain independent insight into the outlook for the infrastructure industry through BMI's 10 year forecasts
  • Understand the market through analysis of projects , investment plans and key players
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
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Iran Infrastructure Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View : Iran ' s construction sector is poised for robust growth in the wake of sanctions removal , both throughout 2016 and over the first half of our forecast period, driven primarily by an influx of international investment and a po st-sanctions financial windfall. We expect transport and energy in particular to attract the lion's share of investment, reflecting the high levels of structural demand in sectors lo ng plagued by underinvestment.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • We have raised our 2016 growth forecast for Iran's construction sector, from 4.5% to 7.9%. This growth pattern will persist over the entirety of our forecast period, and we expect Iran's construction sector to comprise a steadily growing share of the country's overall GDP, from 10% today to over 12% by 2025.

  • Our optimistic growth outlook for Iran's power and transport subsectors is driven by a raft of high value investment pledges. Foremost among these is Turkish firm UNIT International's USD4.2bn deal signed on June 1 with the Iranian energy ministry to build seven natural gas-fired power plants in Iran. In the transport space, Italy's state-owned highway management firm Anas signed a deal with the Iranian Ministry of Roads to build and manage a 1,200km road in the country. The EUR3.6bn (USD4bn) project involves bulding a road connecting the port of Bandar Imam Khomeini to Bazargah.

  • Reflecting the lifting of sanctions in January 2016, Iran's Project Risk Index score on the cost subsection of the Finance pillar, which quantifies a country's access to development funding, registered a dramatic improvement, jumping from a previous score of 5 to a current score of 50.

Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Iran 2015-2025)
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI
Construction industry value, IRRbn 1,155,287.05 1,350,099.87 1,574,215.93 1,837,486.09 2,128,512.03 2,410,050.87 2,790,497.71 3,218,531.04 3,585,014.88 4,138,157.89 4,612,686.63
Construction Industry Value, Real Growth, % y-o-y 2.79 7.86 7.60 5.72 5.84 4.23 5.79 5.34 5.39 5.43 5.47
Construction Industry Value, % of GDP 9.5 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.7 11.3 11.5 12.1 12.3

Risk/Reward Index

  • The lifting of international sanctions continues to have a positive impact on Iran's overall Risk Reward Index (RRI) score. Iran scores 48.0 out of 100 on the RRI this quarter, an improvement from last quarter's 42.3 yet still trailing the regional average of 53.6.

  • Iran registers its worst score in the Industry Risks pillar of the RRI with a score of 35.0, reflecting the high barriers to entry, opaque tendering process, and lack of competition in its infrastructure market. We expect Iran's competitive landscape to diversify considerably as the lifting of international sanctions allows foreign players to return and highlight this as an area in which Iran is likely to improve further.

  • Iran receives an improved score of 46.2 for Country Risks, but still considerably below the regional average of 55. Despite the lifting of sanctions, structural problems with its political system remain - the country suffers from endemic levels of corruption, a weak institutional framework, and political interference in the judiciary is rife.

Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Iran)
Risk/Reward Index Rewards Industry Rewards Country Rewards Risks Industry Risks Country Risks
Source: BMI
48.0 50.7 55.0 42.7 41.7 35.0 46.2
BMI Industry View
5
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Iran 2015-2025)
6
Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Iran 2016)
6
SWOT
7
Infrastructure SWOT
7
Industry Forecast
9
Iran - Sanctions Removal To Unlock Funding For Infrastructure
9
Sanctions Removal To Unlock Funding For Infrastructure
9
Latest Updates
9
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Iran 2015-2025)
10
Structural Trends
10
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
18
Table: Key Transport Infrastructure Projects
27
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
28
Table: Key Projects: Energy & Utilities
35
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview
36
Table: Key Projects: Construction & Social Infrastructure
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Iran - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
41
Rewards
41
Risks
42
MENA Infrastructure RRI: Oil Prices And Security Remain Key Risks
43
Table: MENA RRI
49
Market Overview
50
Competitive Landscape
50
Table: Iran EQS Data
52
Company Profile
53
Iran Power Plant Projects Management Co
53
Methodology
56
Industry Forecast Methodology
56
Sector-Specific Methodology
57
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
61
Sector-Specific Methodology
62
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
63

The Iran Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Iran Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Iran to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Iranian infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).

Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.

The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).

BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and  demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.