Iran Infrastructure Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Infrastructure industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, BMI Industry Forecast, BMI's Infrastructure Risk Reward Index, Market Overview and Company Profiles.

Why you should buy this report

  • Gain independent insight into the outlook for the infrastructure industry through BMI's 10 year forecasts
  • Understand the market through analysis of projects , investment plans and key players
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
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Iran Infrastructure Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We maintain our construction industry growth forecast for Iran at 3.2% real growth in 2016 as we expect international sanctions to be lifted from H116. This will result in the gradual return of private investment in the country , which will considerably benefit the infrastructure sector. Although we anticipate investment opportunities across all sectors, railway projects will attract considerable investment.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • We forecast 3.2% y-o-y real construction industry growth in Iran in 2016 and an average of 4% over the next five years as a result of the lifting of international sanctions.

  • Persistently low oil prices - our Oil & Gas Team forecasts Brent to average USD54.0/bbl in 2016 - will reduce government revenue, limiting public spending in infrastructure.

  • Greater competitiveness in Iran's labour market will be required to support growth in the construction industry. Although Iran's labour force is highly educated by regional standards, high labour costs will continue to pose a structural barrier to investment.

  • Despite an improving outlook for Iran's infrastructure sector, the country will continue to present significant challenges, including elevated political risk, macroeconomic weaknesses, social tensions and a lack of transparency.

Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Iran 2014-2020)
2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI
Construction industry value, IRRbn 514,715.95 599,347.28 684,250.14 779,920.49 893,123.18 1,010,921.22 1,121,238.67
Construction Industry Value, Real Growth, % y-o-y -3.16 1.44 3.17 3.98 4.51 4.19 3.91
Construction Industry Value, % of GDP 4.1 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8

Risk/Reward Index

  • The agreement Iran signed with the P5+1 countries in July 2015, which will result in sanctions being lifted, is having a positive impact on Iran's risks and rewards scores. Evidencing this trend, Iran scores 41.0 out of 100 in our RRI for the Middle East this quarter, an improvement from last quarter's 37.6.

  • Iran scores 35.0 out of 100 for Industry Risks, reflecting the high barriers to entry and lack of competition in the country's infrastructure market. We expect Iran's competitive landscape to diversify considerably one international sanctions are lifted.

  • Iran receives a score of 45.0 for Country Risks, below the regional average. The country suffers from endemic levels of corruption and although nominally independent, political interference in the judicial system is rife.

Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Iran)
Risk/Reward Index Rewards Industry Rewards Country Rewards Risks Industry Risks Country Risks
Source: BMI
41 40 40 42 41 35 45
BMI Industry View
5
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Iran 2014-2020)
5
Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Iran)
6
SWOT
7
Infrastructure SWOT
7
Industry Forecast
9
Iran - Growth Rebound To Follow Sanctions Removal
9
Growth Rebound To Follow Sanctions Removal
9
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Iran 2014-2024)
10
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
16
Table: Key Transport Infrastructure Projects
22
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
23
Table: Key Projects: Energy & Utilities
27
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview
28
Table: Key Projects: Construction & Social Infrastructure
31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
32
Iran - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
32
Rewards
32
Risks
33
Middle East- MENA Infrastructure RRI: Old Risks, New Rewards
34
Table: MENA RRI Table
38
Market Overview
39
Competitive Landscape
39
Table: Iran EQS Data
40
Company Profile
41
Iran Power Plant Projects Management Co
41
Methodology
44
Industry Forecast Methodology
44
Sector-Specific Methodology
45
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
49
Sector-Specific Methodology
50
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
50
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
51

The Iran Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Iran Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Iran to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Iranian infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).

Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.

The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).

BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and  demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.