The outlook for Iran's metals sector is improving for the first time years as sanctions begin to be eased following negotiations with the Western powers. On the whole, however, we are far from sanguine given our bearish outlook for steel prices and the fact that any rapprochement with the West, if indeed it happens, will be drawn out and not have a significant impact in the near term. We note with scepticism, Iran's plans to increase its steel capacity from 20mn tonnes per annum (mntpa) to 55mntpa by 2025, as well as a tripling of aluminium smelter capacity to 1.5mntpa.
While a cut in external trade has impacted negatively on the steel industry, isolation has ensured that imports have also been restricted. However, domestic industrial deficiencies in certain market segments mean that Iran will struggle to meet its own needs in spite of declining consumption. Crude steel output rose 11.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 13.27mn tonnes in the first 11 months of 2013, representing one of the strongest growth rates in the world, rivalling Turkey's.
| Growth Slowing, But Still Elevated |
|Iran - Steel Output|
Nevertheless, due to infrastructural problems and a lack of billet and rebar capacity, the country is still dependent on imports to serve the market, mostly from Turkey. Meanwhile, growth in the manufacturing of steel products has slowed markedly, with existing crude steel capacities unable to sufficiently supply to downstream industries and therefore exacerbating the dependence on imported supplies. Weak points remain, with flats demand coming under pressure as automotive output suffers from declining domestic demand. Over the medium term Iran will be reliant on exports at a time when it is becoming harder to sell on external markets.
Iranian trade has been affected by international sanctions, with the country having to manoeuvre strategically to meet domestic demand and maintain the robust production growth seen a few years ago. We forecast that growth will remain robust in...
The Iran Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by BMI Research's macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Iran.
BMI's Iran Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Iran.
- Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Iran to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iran metals market.
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BMI Industry View
A comprehensive summary of the impact and implications of the latest regulatory developments and key forecast indicators covering metals production, consumption and upside/downside risks to our outlook. The Metals SWOT analysis outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Steel: Steel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
- Aluminium: Aluminium consumption production & balance (‘000 tonnes).
- Copper: Refined copper production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
- Zinc: Refined zinc production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
- Lead: Refined Lead production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).
- Nickel: Refined nickel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
- Tin: Refined tin production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).
Details of the industry regulatory framework, relevant key legislation and environmental standards that impact the metals industry. The regulatory developments section provides analysis of the overall regulatory burden, the tax regime (including income tax rates), bureaucratic framework, corruption and a country specific political overview. Details of the industry regulatory framework provide information on relevant key legislation and regulations that will impact the metals industry.
Provides in depth coverage and forecasting of steel prices and includes BMI’s core view of what to expect in upcoming months. Within the monthly metals update, BMI provides performance data and key forecasts for select commodities, including prices for aluminium, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, nickel, palladium, platinum, silver, steel (MEPS Carbon Steel), tin and zinc.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses of detailed financial data for key listed metals firms, ranked in order of market cap (USDmn).
Examines the competitive position and short to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects. Details of products and services provide a full overview of each company’s operations.
The Metals Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.