Iran Oil & Gas Report

Published 10 June 2015

  • 154 pages
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$1,295.00
Iran Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Despite seeing a small increase in oil production and exports following the Geneva Interim Agreement, a more significant increase can only result from an easing or lifting of international sanctions. We are increasingly bullish on the prospects of the success of a deal by June 2015, and a subsequent lifting of the sanctions. In such a situation, a significant ramp-up in production and exports to pre-sanction levels would take three to four years from when sanctions are lifted. Years of underinvestment, maturing oil fields and a lack of field and well maintenance has damaged fields. Gas production will continue to grow, with further development of South Pars phases. Despite strong growth, limited access to capital and technology will still prevent production from accelerating sufficiently to meet demand. This will translate into gas shortages and limits the options of large regional gas exports in the short to medium term.

Headline Forecasts (Iran 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
BMI/EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 3,289.3 3,439.5 3,472.5 3,489.3 3,572.3 3,653.9 3,695.8
Dry natural gas production, bcm 162.6 182.1 192.1 211.3 221.9 230.7 240.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 158.9 178.0 188.6 207.5 217.9 226.6 235.7
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 1,800.0 1,872.0 1,872.0 1,872.0 1,928.2 1,986.0 1,995.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 1,810.0 1,820.0 1,821.8 1,858.3 1,876.8 1,905.0 1,943.1

We highlight the following trends and developments in Iran's oil and gas sector:

  • Iran holds the fourth-largest oil reserves and second-largest gas reserves in the world. Given the maturity of the country's fields, the replenishment of oil reserves remains an important issue. A vast majority of gas reserves in the country remain undeveloped, a...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Iran 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
OIl & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Iran 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Iran 2019-2024)
11
Upstream Projects
15
Table: Iran Major Upstream Projects
15
Upstream Production - Oil
18
Table: Oil Production (Iran 2013-2018)
18
Table: Oil Production (Iran 2019-2024)
19
Table: Selection Of Upstream Projects
27
Upstream Production - Gas
28
Table: Gas Production (Iran 2013-2018)
28
Table: Gas Production (Iran 2019-2024)
28
Table: South Pars Project Phases
31
Refining
33
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iran 2013-2018)
33
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iran 2019-2024)
33
Table: Iran Refineries
35
Table: Planned Greenfield Refineries
37
Refined Fuels Consumption
39
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iran 2013-2018)
39
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iran 2019-2024)
39
Gas Consumption
44
Table: Gas Consumption (Iran 2013-2018)
44
Table: Gas Consumption (Iran 2019-2024)
44
Trade - Oil
47
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iran 2013-2018)
47
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iran 2019-2024)
48
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iran 2013-2018)
52
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iran 2019-2024)
52
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Iran 2013-2018)
54
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Iran 2013-2018)
54
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
55
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iran 2013-2018)
55
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iran 2019-2024)
56
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
62
Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
62
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index (RRI)
62
Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
63
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
63
Limited Opportunities Downstream
66
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
66
Iran - Risk/Reward Index
69
Iran - Overview
69
Iran Upstream Index - Rewards
69
Iran Upstream Index - Risks
69
Iran Downstream Index - Overview
69
Market Overview
70
Iran Energy Market Overview
70
Overview/State Role
70
Licensing And Regulation
70
Government Policy
71
International Energy Relations
71
Country Risk View: Nuclear Deal To Be Reached In June 2015
72
Table: Nuclear Negotiations - Key Points Of Contention
73
April 2015 Framework Agreement: Agreement Bodes Very Well For June Deal
75
Table: Key Upstream Operators - Iran Oil & Gas Sector
84
Table: Key Downstream Operators - Iran Energy Sector
84
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
85
Oil Refineries
85
Table: Refineries In Iran
85
Service Stations
86
Oil Storage Facilities
86
Oil Terminals/Ports
86
Oil Pipelines
87
LNG Terminals
88
Gas Pipelines
88
Competitive Landscape
95
Competitive Landscape Summary
95
Table: Key Players - Iranian Oil & Gas Sector
96
Company Profile
97
National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC)
97
National Iranian Oil Refining & Distribution Company (NIORDC)
103
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
106
ONGC Videsh (OVL)
108
Other Summaries
110
Regional Overview
113
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview
113
Oil Production - Low Oil Prices Not Preventing Growth
113
Oil Consumption - Demand Continues Unabated
115
Refining Capacity - Outcompeting With Modernity And Scale
116
Gas Production - Pressure To Produce
117
Gas Consumption - Gas Switch Boosting Demand
119
Global Industry Overview
121
Oil Price Outlook
121
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
121
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
122
Appendix
129
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
129
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
129
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
130
Middle East - Regional Appendix
131
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
131
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
132
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
133
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
133
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
134
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
134
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
135
Table: Gas Consumption, 2016-2024 (bcm)
135
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
136
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
136
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
137
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
137
Iran - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
138
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Iran 2013-2018)
138
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Iran 2019-2024)
139
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Iran 2013-2018)
140
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Iran 2019-2024)
141
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Iran 2013-2018)
142
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Iran 2019-2024)
143
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Iran 2013-2018)
144
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Iran 2019-2024)
144
Iran - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
145
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Iran 2013-2018)
145
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Iran 2019-2024)
146
Glossary
147
Table: Glossary Of Terms
147
Methodology
149
Industry Forecast Methodology
149
Source
151
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
151
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
153
Table: Weighting
154

The Iran Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Iran including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Iran Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Iran to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iranian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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