Iran Oil & Gas Report

Published 12 August 2015

  • 142 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Iran Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: The alleviation of sanctions has the potential to significantly turn around Iran's energy sector, given the size of undeveloped oil and gas reserves and opportunities in the downstream sector . Nevertheless, this will require time and significant amounts of capital. New contract negotiations and terms on offer will be a crucial determinant in gauging demand and participation by foreign oil companies.

Headline Forecasts (Iran 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast; Source: BMI, EIA, IEA, OPEC, Bloomberg.
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 3,197.4 3,385.0 3,423.6 3,786.5 4,007.5 4,029.9 4,048.6
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 1,800.0 1,872.0 1,872.0 1,872.0 1,946.9 1,985.8 1,995.7
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 1,810.0 1,820.0 1,816.4 1,843.6 1,880.5 1,908.7 1,937.3
Dry natural gas production, bcm 162.6 174.0 184.1 197.9 207.8 211.9 216.2
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 158.9 171.0 180.9 190.3 196.0 200.0 204.0

We highlight the following trends and developments in Iran's oil and gas sector:

  • We have adjusted upwards our Iran crude oil and condensates forecasts to take into account the stipulations of the Vienna Agreement. While we had tentatively forecast the relief in sanctions to amount to about 600,000 b/d of incremental production, the pace will be much quicker than we expected. This has prompted us to bring forward the scope of a ramp-up in production and exports to H1 2016. There is substantial upside risk to our forecasts past 2017, dependent on the attractiveness of new contracts and IOC interest.

  • First additional oil exports will begin in H116 and will ramp up quickly. All new oil production will be earmarked for exports. In addition to volumes released from storage, Iran will be able to increase crude oil and...

BMI Industry View
9
Table: Headline Forecasts (Iran 2013-2019)
9
SWOT
11
OIl & Gas SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
13
Upstream Exploration
13
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Iran 2013-2018)
13
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Iran 2019-2024)
13
Upstream Projects
17
Table: Iran Major Upstream Projects
17
Upstream Production - Oil
20
Table: Oil Production (Iran 2013-2018)
20
Table: Oil Production (Iran 2019-2024)
21
Oil Production Gains In The First Two Years Post Sanctions
23
Table: Selection Of Upstream Projects
27
Upstream Production - Gas
28
Table: Gas Production (Iran 2013-2018)
28
Table: Gas Production (Iran 2019-2024)
28
Table: Iran Gas Production Forecast (bcm)
31
Table: South Pars Project Phases
31
Refining
33
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iran 2013-2018)
33
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iran 2019-2024)
33
Table: Iran Refineries
35
Table: Planned Greenfield Refineries
37
Refined Fuels Consumption
39
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iran 2013-2018)
39
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iran 2019-2024)
39
Gas Consumption
43
Table: Gas Consumption (Iran 2013-2018)
43
Table: Gas Consumption (Iran 2019-2024)
43
Trade - Oil
46
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iran 2013-2018)
46
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iran 2019-2024)
47
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iran 2013-2018)
51
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iran 2019-2024)
51
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Iran 2013-2018)
53
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Iran 2013-2018)
53
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
54
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iran 2013-2018)
54
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iran 2019-2024)
55
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
60
Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
60
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index (RRI)
60
Middle East Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
61
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
61
Limited Opportunities Downstream
63
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
63
Iran - Risk/Reward Index
66
Iran - Overview
66
Iran Upstream Index - Rewards
66
Iran Upstream Index - Risks
66
Iran Downstream Index - Overview
66
Market Overview
67
Iran Energy Market Overview
67
Overview/State Role
67
Table: Key Upstream Operators - Iran Oil & Gas Sector
67
Table: Key Downstream Operators - Iran Energy Sector
67
Licensing And Regulation
68
Country Risk View: Iranian Nuclear Deal - Widespread Economic And Geopolitical Implications
70
Table: Main Terms Of Iran Nuclear Deal
72
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
74
Oil Refineries
74
Table: Refineries In Iran
74
Service Stations
75
Oil Storage Facilities
75
Oil Terminals/Ports
75
Oil Pipelines
76
LNG Terminals
77
Gas Pipelines
77
Competitive Landscape
84
Competitive Landscape Summary
84
Table: Key Players - Iranian Oil & Gas Sector
85
Company Profile
86
National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC)
86
National Iranian Oil Refining & Distribution Company (NIORDC)
92
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
95
ONGC Videsh (OVL)
97
Other Summaries
99
Regional Overview
101
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview
101
Oil Production - Low Production Costs Support Expansion
101
Oil Consumption - Downstream Expansion, Subsidies Drive Demand
103
Refining Capacity - Outcompeting With Advanced Mega Refineries
104
Gas Production - More Gas Needed
105
Gas Consumption - Gas Switch Boosting Demand
107
Global Industry Overview
109
Global Energy Market Overview
109
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
109
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
112
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
113
Appendix
115
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
115
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
115
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
116
Middle East - Regional Appendix
118
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
118
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
119
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
119
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
120
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
120
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
121
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
122
Table: Gas Consumption, 2016-2024 (bcm)
122
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
123
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
123
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
124
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
125
Iran - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
126
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Iran 2013-2018)
126
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Iran 2019-2024)
127
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Iran 2013-2018)
128
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Iran 2019-2024)
129
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Iran 2013-2018)
130
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Iran 2019-2024)
131
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Iran 2013-2018)
132
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Iran 2019-2024)
132
Iran - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
133
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Iran 2013-2018)
133
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Iran 2019-2024)
134
Glossary
135
Table: Glossary Of Terms
135
Methodology
137
Industry Forecast Methodology
137
Source
139
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
139
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
141
Table: Weighting
142

The Iran Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Iran including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Iran Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Iran to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iranian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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