Iran Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Iran Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Gas production and consumption will continue to grow in 2017 due to new phases of South Pars increasing gas availability. O il production and exports will increase around 200,000b/d in 2017, roughly reaching pre-sanctions levels . Refined fuels exports will rise following the start up of the first phase of the Persian Gulf Star refinery.

Headline Forecasts (Iran 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI, EIA, OPEC, JODI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 3,239.0 3,300.8 3,748.1 3,966.9 3,989.0 4,007.5 4,056.9
Refined products production, 000b/d 1,668.0 1,676.0 1,621.4 1,749.8 1,867.0 1,914.5 1,933.7
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 1,583.9 1,544.4 1,545.8 1,601.4 1,664.3 1,703.8 1,739.5
Dry natural gas production, bcm 182.1 192.5 218.2 231.3 240.6 241.8 243.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 180.0 191.2 214.2 224.9 231.6 234.0 236.3
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 45.50 55.00 68.00 65.00 67.00

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

  • NIOC signed the first 'new format' oil deal (not IPC) with domestic company Persia Oil & Gas. USD2.2bn is expected to be invested in to develop the Yaran field and increase recovery from the Maroun and Koupal fields.

  • The status and terms of the IPC are still yet to be published, though Iranian officials remain positive on contracts being signed by the end of 2016.

  • NIOC is reportedly in talks with 16 international companies regarding tenders for new oil and gas projects under the IPC.

  • Indian companies are reportedly close to a deal to develop the Farzad B gas field.

  • French, Russian and Chinese companies are interested in South Pars phase 11.

  • The platform for phase 20, satellite platforms of phases 17 and 18, and platforms A and B of phase 14, are all due to be installed by the end of 2016.

  • Gas exports to Iraq are expected to rise via two pipelines in to the Diyala and Basra regions.

  • The distillation unit at the first phase of the Persian Gulf Star facility was launched in October. The 120,000b/d phase of the facility is due to begin commercial operations in Q117.

  • A gasoline unit has been commissioned at the Bandar Abbas refinery.

  • Refined fuels consumption remains muted as Euro-IV standard fuels are increasingly being rolled out across major cities - improving fuel efficiency.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Iran 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
OIl & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
12
Upstream Projects
14
Table: New Projects Expected To Be Offered Post-Sanctions
14
Table: Iran Major Upstream Projects
15
Upstream Production - Oil
18
Latest Updates
18
Structural Trends
18
Table: New Oil Projects On Offer
22
Table: Oil Production (Iran 2014-2019)
23
Table: Oil Production (Iran 2020-2025)
23
Upstream Production - Gas
24
Latest Updates
24
Structural Trends
24
Table: South Pars Project Phases
26
Table: Gas Projects Proposed Under The IPC
26
Table: Gas Production (Iran 2014-2019)
27
Table: Gas Production (Iran 2020-2025)
28
Refining
29
Latest Updates
29
Structural Trends
29
Table: Major Iranian Refineries
30
Table: Modernisation Projects
33
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iran 2014-2019)
33
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iran 2020-2025)
33
Refined Fuels Consumption
34
Latest Updates
34
Structural Trends
34
Table: Approximate Gasoline & Diesel Costs
36
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iran 2014-2019)
37
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iran 2020-2025)
37
Gas Consumption
38
Latest Updates
38
Structural Trends
38
Table: Gas Consumption (Iran 2014-2019)
40
Table: Gas Consumption (Iran 2020-2025)
40
Trade - Oil
41
Crude Trade Forecasts
41
Latest Updates
41
Structural Trends
41
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iran 2014-2020)
43
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iran 2020-2025)
44
Refined Fuels Trade Forecasts
44
Latest Updates
44
Structural Trends
44
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iran 2014-2019)
46
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iran 2020-2025)
46
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
47
Latest Updates
47
Structural Trends
47
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iran 2014-2019)
50
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iran 2020-2025)
51
Industry Risk/Reward Index
52
Middle East - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
52
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
52
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
53
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
53
Downstream: Limited Opportunities
55
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
55
Iran - Risk/Reward Index
58
Upstream Index - Rewards
58
Upstream Index - Risks
58
Iran Downstream Index - Overview
58
Market Overview
60
Iran Energy Market Overview
60
Overview
60
Table: Key Upstream Operators - Iran Oil & Gas Sector
60
Table: Key Downstream Operators - Iran Energy Sector
60
Fiscal Regime
61
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
63
Oil Refineries
63
Table: Refineries In Iran
63
Service Stations
64
Oil Storage Facilities
64
Oil Terminals/Ports
64
Oil Pipelines
65
Gas Pipelines
65
Table: Major Proposed Pipelines
66
Gas Storage Facilities
66
Table: Operation, Under Construction & Planned Gas Storage
66
Competitive Landscape
67
Company Profile
68
NIOC
68
Latest Updates
68
Company Overview
69
Table: Major NIOC Subsidiaries
69
Table: Fields Proposed Under The New IPC
70
Regional Overview
72
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview
72
Oil Production: Output On Upward Trajectory
72
Oil Consumption: Gas And Subsidy Reform Tempering Demand
75
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 & March 2016 (USD/Litre)
75
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries To Outcompete
77
Gas Production: Upstream Focus Swaying To Gas
78
Gas Consumption: Industrial Growth And Power Drive Demand
80
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade
81
Glossary
82
Table: Glossary Of Terms
82
Methodology
84
Industry Forecast Methodology
84
Source
86
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
86
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
88
Table: Weighting
89

The Iran Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Iran including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Iran Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Iran to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iranian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.