BMI View: Gas production and consumption will see a substantial ramp-up in 2016 due to new phases of South Pars increasing gas availability. The lifting of sanctions in January 2016 will allow for oil production to increa se by around 600,000b/d by year- end. New refining capacity will eradicate net fuels imports from 2017.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast; Source: BMI, EIA, IEA, OPEC, JODI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||3,385.0||3,427.0||3,829.6||4,053.1||4,075.8||4,094.7||4,109.7|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||174.0||185.0||216.6||218.7||219.8||220.9||222.0|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||171.0||184.7||206.8||211.0||212.0||214.2||216.3|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||1,668.0||1,654.7||1,721.1||1,856.3||1,923.6||1,962.1||1,981.7|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||1,583.9||1,560.1||1,569.5||1,625.2||1,688.7||1,736.0||1,772.5|
We highlight the following trends and developments in Iran's oil and gas sector:
Sanctions were lifted on January 16 2016, restarting financial and economic connections with non-US countries
In our view Iran will be able to increase oil production to up to 600,000b/d, adding an average of 400,000b/d over 2016
Total has reportedly agreed a 150,000-200,000b/d oil export agreement with Iran, though the timeframe remains unclear
Phases 15 and 16 of South Pars were officially inaugurated on January 11 2016, adding nearly 20bcm of gas production capacity
Phases 17 and 18 of South Pars are due to begin production by April 2016, adding another 20bcm of gas production capacity
Phases 15-18 of South Pars will also add 160,000b/d of condensate production between them.
Gas consumption reportedly increased sharply in January due to increased gas availability with particularly strong demand from the power sector
This dynamic also supported an increase in diesel exports, due to a reduction in demand for oil products from power generators
The Persian Gulf Star refinery was reportedly 86% complete in January 2016 - it received a EUR650mn allocation from the National Development Fund and is targeting completion by July 2016
Saipem reportedly signed a memorandum of understanding to cooperate in the upgrade of the Pars Shiraz and Tabriz refineries
Refined fuel consumption is on track to fall around 1.5% y-o-y in 2015 as fuel subsidy reductions in March and weak economic growth limited consumption; gasoline consumption continues to grow
Progress on the Iran-Oman gas pipeline could lead to a front end engineering design contract in H216
The Iran Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Iran including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Iran Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Iran to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iranian oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.