BMI View: Gas production and consumption will see a substantial ramp-up in 2016 /17 due to new phases of South Pars increasing gas availability. We see marginal further upside to oil production and exports, with shipments in June at 2.3mn b/d, some 1.2mn b/d higher than under san c tions.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, EIA, OPEC, JODI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||3,379.7||3,297.7||3,744.9||3,963.6||3,985.8||4,004.2||4,053.5|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||1,668.0||1,676.0||1,665.7||1,782.3||1,884.3||1,916.0||1,935.2|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||1,583.9||1,544.4||1,562.3||1,618.9||1,683.6||1,683.6||1,718.9|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||174.0||192.8||216.3||218.4||219.5||220.6||221.7|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||171.0||184.7||206.8||211.0||212.0||214.2||216.3|
We highlight the following trends and developments in Iran's oil and gas sector:
The final version of the Iranian Petroleum Contract was approved by the Resistance Economy Headquarters, though hardliner opposition remains strong. Oil minister Bijan Zanganeh expects it to be passed by the end of the summer.
According to our estimates compile from customs import agencies, Iranian crude exports reached 2.3mn b/d in June.
Production from phase 1 of the Yadavaran field (85,000b/d) has reportedly started, while a second phase expansion adding 95,000b/d is being discussed with Sinopec.
75,000b/d of new production is due to be was launched from the CNPC-led North Azadegan field in April. Output is currently at 75,000b/d.
Phases 17, 18 and 19 of South Pars are currently operating at half capacity (around 20bcm) and could add another 20bcm of gas if ramped up.
Phases 17 and 18 of South Pars also add 80,000b/d of condensate production.
The Persian Gulf Star refinery was reportedly 86% complete in January 2016, and the first phase of 120,000b/d is due to be completed by the end of the Iranian year (March 2017).
The Tabriz refinery is due to add a desulphurisation unit, enabling Euro-V diesel production. No contractor has yet been chosen.
The government will reportedly be funding the upgrade of the Abadan refinery, with works expected to begin before the end of 2016.
Upgrades at the Pars Shiraz, Bandar Abbas and Lavan refineries are also being discussed.
Iran remains an importer of gasoline and exporter of diesel.
The Iran Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Iran including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Iran Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Iran to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iranian oil and gas market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.