Iran Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Iran Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Gas production and consumption will see a substantial ramp-up in 2016 due to new phases of South Pars increasing gas availability. The lifting of sanctions in January 2016 will allow for oil production to increa se by around 600,000b/d by year- end. New refining capacity will eradicate net fuels imports from 2017.

Headline Forecasts (Iran 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast; Source: BMI, EIA, IEA, OPEC, JODI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 3,385.0 3,427.0 3,829.6 4,053.1 4,075.8 4,094.7 4,109.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 174.0 185.0 216.6 218.7 219.8 220.9 222.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 171.0 184.7 206.8 211.0 212.0 214.2 216.3
Refined products production, 000b/d 1,668.0 1,654.7 1,721.1 1,856.3 1,923.6 1,962.1 1,981.7
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 1,583.9 1,560.1 1,569.5 1,625.2 1,688.7 1,736.0 1,772.5
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

We highlight the following trends and developments in Iran's oil and gas sector:

  • Sanctions were lifted on January 16 2016, restarting financial and economic connections with non-US countries

  • In our view Iran will be able to increase oil production to up to 600,000b/d, adding an average of 400,000b/d over 2016

  • Total has reportedly agreed a 150,000-200,000b/d oil export agreement with Iran, though the timeframe remains unclear

  • Phases 15 and 16 of South Pars were officially inaugurated on January 11 2016, adding nearly 20bcm of gas production capacity

  • Phases 17 and 18 of South Pars are due to begin production by April 2016, adding another 20bcm of gas production capacity

  • Phases 15-18 of South Pars will also add 160,000b/d of condensate production between them.

  • Gas consumption reportedly increased sharply in January due to increased gas availability with particularly strong demand from the power sector

  • This dynamic also supported an increase in diesel exports, due to a reduction in demand for oil products from power generators

  • The Persian Gulf Star refinery was reportedly 86% complete in January 2016 - it received a EUR650mn allocation from the National Development Fund and is targeting completion by July 2016

  • Saipem reportedly signed a memorandum of understanding to cooperate in the upgrade of the Pars Shiraz and Tabriz refineries

  • Refined fuel consumption is on track to fall around 1.5% y-o-y in 2015 as fuel subsidy reductions in March and weak economic growth limited consumption; gasoline consumption continues to grow

  • Progress on the Iran-Oman gas pipeline could lead to a front end engineering design contract in H216

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Iran 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
OIl & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
12
Upstream Projects
14
Table: New Projects Expected To Be Offered Post-Sanctions
14
Table: Iran Major Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
18
Latest Updates
18
Structural Trends
18
Table: New Oil Projects On Offer
22
Table: Oil Production (Iran 2014-2019)
23
Table: Oil Production (Iran 2020-2025)
23
Upstream Production - Gas
24
Latest Updates
24
Structural Trends
24
Table: South Pars Project Phases
26
Table: Gas Projects Proposed Post Sanctions
26
Table: Gas Production (Iran 2014-2019)
27
Table: Gas Production (Iran 2020-2025)
28
Refining
29
Latest Updates
29
Structural Trends
29
Table: Major Iranian Refineries
30
Table: Proposed Greenfield Refineries
33
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Iran 2014-2019)
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iran 2020-2025)
34
Refined Fuels Consumption
35
Latest Updates
35
Structural Trends
35
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Iran 2014-2019)
37
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Iran 2020-2025)
37
Gas Consumption
38
Latest Updates
38
Structural Trends
38
Table: Gas Consumption (Iran 2014-2019)
40
Table: Gas Consumption (Iran 2020-2025)
40
Trade - Oil
41
Crude Trade Forecasts
41
Latest Updates
41
Structural Trends
41
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iran 2014-2020)
43
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iran 2020-2025)
43
Refined Fuels Trade Forecasts
43
Latest Updates
43
Structural Trends
43
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iran 2014-2019)
45
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iran 2020-2025)
45
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
46
Latest Updates
46
Structural Trends
46
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iran 2014-2019)
49
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iran 2020-2025)
50
Industry Risk/Reward Index
51
Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
51
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index (RRI)
51
Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
52
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
52
Limited Opportunities Downstream
54
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
54
Iran - Risk/Reward Index
56
Iran - Overview
56
Iran Upstream Index - Rewards
56
Iran Upstream Index - Risks
57
Iran Downstream Index - Overview
57
Market Overview
58
Iran Energy Market Overview
58
Overview
58
Table: Key Upstream Operators - Iran Oil & Gas Sector
58
Table: Key Downstream Operators - Iran Energy Sector
58
Fiscal Regime
59
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
61
Oil Refineries
61
Table: Refineries In Iran
61
Service Stations
62
Oil Storage Facilities
62
Oil Terminals/Ports
62
Oil Pipelines
63
Gas Pipelines
63
Table: Major Proposed Pipelines
64
Gas Storage Facilities
64
Table: Operation, Under Construction & Planned Gas Storage
64
Competitive Landscape
65
Competitive Landscape Summary
65
Table: Key Players - Iranian Oil & Gas Sector
67
Company Profile
68
CNPC
68
NIOC
71
NIORDC
76
OVL
80
Other Summaries
83
Regional Overview
86
Middle East Oil And Gas Regional Overview
86
Oil Production: Weak Prices Have Limited Impact On Growth
86
Oil Consumption: Gradual Subsidy Reform To Temper Demand Growth
88
Refining Capacity: 2mn b/d Of New Capacity By 2020
90
Gas Production: Low Oil Prices Hinder Gas Progress
91
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand
93
Table: Middle East - Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade (2013-2024)
94
Glossary
96
Table: Glossary Of Terms
96
Methodology
98
Industry Forecast Methodology
98
Source
100
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
100
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
102
Table: Weighting
103

The Iran Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Iran including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Iran Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Iran to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iranian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.