Iran Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Iran Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Regardless of the expected removal of sanctions, gas production and consumption will see a substantial ramp-up in 2016. The lif ting of sanctions in early 2016 will allow for around 600,000b/d of new oil exports by the end of 2016. New refining capacity will eradicate net fuels imports from 2016.

Headline Forecasts (Iran 2013-2019)
2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast; Source: BMI, EIA, IEA, OPEC, JODI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 3,197.4 3,385.0 3,427.0 3,829.6 4,053.1 4,075.8 4,094.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 162.6 174.0 188.7 216.4 215.7 216.8 217.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 158.9 171.0 184.7 206.8 211.0 212.0 214.2
Refined products production, 000b/d 1,811.3 1,668.0 1,654.7 1,782.0 1,910.2 2,001.9 2,041.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 1,770.2 1,583.9 1,563.9 1,563.2 1,634.3 1,698.2 1,745.8
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 57.00 56.00 55.00 60.00 64.00

We highlight the following trends and developments in Iran's oil and gas sector:

  • We expect sanctions on the energy sector to be lifted near the end of Q116.

  • As a result, crude oil production and exports will increase around 600,000b/d by the end of 2016.

  • We have revised up our gas production forecast for 2016 given the expected start up of South Pars phase 15 & 16 in November.

  • Greater availability of gas will boost domestic consumption and reduce gas imports over the winter.

  • The first 120,000b/d phase of the Persian Gulf Star refinery is expected to become operation in H116.

  • The final two phases are forecast to become operational by the end of 2017.

  • Fuels consumption is expected to fall in 2015 as revised subsidies continue to soften demand. We do not see a strong rebound in demand in 2016.

  • Gasoline consumption has increased slightly through August 2015, increasing imports, though Iran should be self-sufficient on gasoline in from 2017.

  • Over 50 new oil and gas fields are expected to be offered to international investors following the lifting of sanctions. They will be outlined in the November conference in Tehran.

  • New contract structure appear to be more attractive, offering full cost recovery, oil linked returns and longer production periods.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Iran 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
8
OIl & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Upstream Projects
13
Table: New Projects Expected To Be Offered Post-Sanctions
13
Table: Iran Major Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
17
Oil Production Gains In The First Two Years Post Sanctions
18
Table: New Oil Projects On Offer
21
Table: Oil Production (Iran 2013-2018)
22
Table: Oil Production (Iran 2019-2024)
22
Upstream Production - Gas
23
Table: South Pars Project Phases
25
Table: Gas Projects Proposed Post Sanctions
25
Table: Gas Production (Iran 2013-2018)
26
Table: Gas Production (Iran 2019-2024)
27
Refining
28
Table: Major Iranian Refineries
30
Table: Proposed Greenfield Refineries
32
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iran 2013-2018)
33
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iran 2019-2024)
33
Refined Fuels Consumption
34
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iran 2013-2018)
37
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iran 2019-2024)
37
Gas Consumption
38
Table: Gas Consumption (Iran 2013-2018)
41
Table: Gas Consumption (Iran 2019-2024)
41
Trade - Oil
42
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iran 2013-2019)
45
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iran 2019-2024)
46
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iran 2013-2018)
48
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iran 2019-2024)
48
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
49
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iran 2013-2018)
52
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iran 2019-2024)
53
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
54
Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
54
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index (RRI)
54
Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
55
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
55
Limited Opportunities Downstream
57
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
57
Iran - Risk/Reward Index
60
Iran - Overview
60
Iran Upstream Index - Rewards
60
Iran Upstream Index - Risks
60
Iran Downstream Index - Overview
60
Market Overview
61
Iran Energy Market Overview
61
Overview/State Role
61
Table: Key Upstream Operators - Iran Oil & Gas Sector
61
Table: Key Downstream Operators - Iran Energy Sector
61
Licensing And Regulation
62
Country Risk View: Iranian Nuclear Deal - Widespread Economic And Geopolitical Implications
63
Table: Main Terms Of Iran Nuclear Deal
64
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
66
Oil Refineries
66
Table: Refineries In Iran
66
Service Stations
67
Oil Storage Facilities
67
Oil Terminals/Ports
67
Oil Pipelines
68
Gas Pipelines
68
Table: Major Proposed Pipelines
69
Competitive Landscape
70
Competitive Landscape Summary
70
Table: Key Players - Iranian Oil & Gas Sector
72
Company Profile
73
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
73
National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC)
75
National Iranian Oil Refining & Distribution Company (NIORDC)
82
ONGC Videsh (OVL)
86
Other Summaries
89
Regional Overview
92
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview
92
Oil Production: Expansion Projects March On
92
Oil Consumption: Subsidies Hide Weaker Price Impact, But Push Demand Growth
94
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries Outcompete In Oversupplied Market
96
Gas Production: In Needed Of More Gas
97
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand
99
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade
100
Glossary
102
Table: Glossary Of Terms
102
Methodology
104
Industry Forecast Methodology
104
Source
106
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
106
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
108
Table: Weighting
109

The Iran Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Iran including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Iran Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Iran to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iranian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.