Iran Petrochemicals Report

Published 08 May 2015

  • 71 pages
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$1,295.00
Iran Petrochemicals Report

BMI View: The future of the Iranian petrochemicals industry is brightening, with prospects of a lifting of sanctions. We note, however, that the country will be unable to ramp up production and attract investment in the long term unless talks over its nuclear programme result in a breakthrough.

If Western sanctions are lifted, Iran's petrochemicals capacity is expected to reach 100mn tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2020. Until now, the industry's capacity utilisation levels have been low due to a collapse in exports; and many projects are half-completed and in dire need foreign investment. At the same time, domestic consumption has been hard hit by the country's isolation. As a result, while the prospect of a lifting of sanctions will improve the outlook for the country's petrochemicals industry, it will be a long road to full recovery.

In addition, while plants may nominally come on stream, operation rates are likely to be low and plants will be operating at a loss unless Iranian producers can pass on the full costs of production onto consumers in export markets. To operate at reasonable levels of capacity utilisation, olefins output would have to increase by a third and polymers by a third, but the demand may not exist and may not have existed even without the sanctions regime.

Key Developments And BMI Forecasts

  • By 2019, Iranian ethylene capacity should have exceeded 11mn tpa and polymers capacity should be around 10mn tpa, with much of the expansion completed over the next two years.

  • The automotive industry is seeing a surge in output, which is stimulating consumption of a wide range of petrochemicals used in car-making, including synthetic rubber, engineering plastics and polyurethanes.

  • However, the construction industry is set for slow growth, which will limit the market performance of construction-related petrochemicals although there will still be a turnaround from the years of contraction.

  • This quarter, Iran has marginally raised its Petrochemicals...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Iran's Petrochemicals Industry, 2012-2018 ('000 tpa, Unless Otherwise Stated)
18
Macroeconomic Forecasts
19
Economic Analysis
19
Table: Iran - Economic Activity
25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
26
MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Table: MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings, Q314
28
Iran Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Market Overview
30
Table: Iran's Cracker Capacity, 2012-2018 ('000 tpa)
32
Industry Trends And Developments
34
Current plans
35
Sanctions And The Petrochemicals Industry
38
Privatisation
40
Company Profile
41
National Petrochemical Company
41
Regional Overview
45
Middle East And Africa Overview
45
Looking To Asia
46
Diversification The Long-Term Focus
48
African Growth Focused In The North
48
Global Industry Overview
52
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
55
Latin America: The Main Loser In US Expansion Drive
56
Asia: New Growth Markets Fuel Global Demand
57
Challenges For The Arabian Gulf
58
Russia And CIS: Coming To The Fore
58
Gasoline
60
Table: BMI Gasoline Price Forecast, 2012-2018
60
Weak Q114 For Gasoline
61
Europe And The US: Competitive Market To Limit Summer Gains
62
Asia: Market Rebalancing To Better Support Market
65
Risks To Outlook
68
Diesel
68
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
69
New York's One-Off Heat Up
69
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
72
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
76
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
78
Risks To Outlook
82
Jet Fuel
83
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl
83
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
83
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
85
Risks To Outlook
88
Bunker fuel
89
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
89
The Storm Clears For Shipping
90
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
92
Long-Term Threats Linger
93
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
95
Risks To Outlook
95
Demographic Forecast
97
Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
98
Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
99
Table: Iran's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
100
Table: Iran's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
100
Glossary
101
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
101
Methodology
102
Industry Forecast Methodology
102
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
104
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
105
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
106

The Iran Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Iran Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Iranian petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
  • Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global & Regional Market Overview

Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.

Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:

Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene

Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.

Sources

The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc