Iran Petrochemicals Report

Published 08 May 2015

  • 71 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Iran Petrochemicals Report

BMI View: The future of the Iranian petrochemicals industry is brightening, with prospects of a lifting of sanctions. We note, however, that the country will be unable to ramp up production and attract investment in the long term unless talks over its nuclear programme result in a breakthrough.

If Western sanctions are lifted, Iran's petrochemicals capacity is expected to reach 100mn tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2020. Until now, the industry's capacity utilisation levels have been low due to a collapse in exports; and many projects are half-completed and in dire need foreign investment. At the same time, domestic consumption has been hard hit by the country's isolation. As a result, while the prospect of a lifting of sanctions will improve the outlook for the country's petrochemicals industry, it will be a long road to full recovery.

In addition, while plants may nominally come on stream, operation rates are likely to be low and plants will be operating at a loss unless Iranian producers can pass on the full costs of production onto consumers in export markets. To operate at reasonable levels of capacity utilisation, olefins output would have to increase by a third and polymers by a third, but the demand may not exist and may not have existed even without the sanctions regime.

Key Developments And BMI Forecasts

  • By 2019, Iranian ethylene capacity should have exceeded 11mn tpa and polymers capacity should be around 10mn tpa, with much of the expansion completed over the next two years.

  • The automotive industry is seeing a surge in output, which is stimulating consumption of a wide range of petrochemicals used in car-making, including synthetic rubber, engineering plastics and polyurethanes.

  • However, the construction industry is set for slow growth, which will limit the market performance of construction-related petrochemicals although there will still be a turnaround from the years of contraction.

  • This quarter, Iran has marginally raised its Petrochemicals...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Production
14
Consumption
16
Table: Iran's Petrochemicals Industry, 2011-2019 ('000 tpa, Unless Otherwise Stated)
17
Macroeconomic Forecasts
18
Economic Analysis
18
Table: Economic Activity (Iran 2010-2019)
24
Industry Risk Reward Index
25
MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
25
Table: MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index - Q3 2015
29
Iran Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
29
Market Overview
31
Table: Iran's Cracker Capacity, 2013-2019 ('000 tpa)
33
Privatisation
34
Industry Trends And Developments
35
Upstream Developments
35
International Sanctions And The Petrochemicals Industry
36
Current plans
37
Company Profile
41
National Petrochemical Company
41
Regional Overview
45
Middle East And Africa Overview
45
Tightening Ethane Supplies
46
Diversification The Long-Term Focus
47
Africa Falls Behind
48
Global Industry Overview
50
Project Cancellation: the Impact of US Expansion and Low Oil Prices
50
Outlook for 2015: Falling prices
52
Medium-term outlook
53
China versus the US: feedstock wars
54
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
58
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
58
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
59
Demographic Forecast
61
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Iran 1990-2025)
62
Table: Key Population Ratios (Iran 1990-2025)
62
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Iran 1990-2025)
63
Table: Population By Age Group (Iran 1990-2025)
63
Table: Population By Age Group % (Iran 1990-2025)
64
Glossary
66
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
66
Methodology
67
Industry Forecast Methodology
67
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
69
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
70
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
71

The Iran Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Iran Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Iranian petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
  • Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global & Regional Market Overview

Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.

Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:

Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene

Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.

Sources

The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc