BMI View: The Iranian government is looking to attract greater direct investment by leveraging the growing interest of multinational pharmaceutical companies interested in exploring the high-growth potential of Iran's pharmaceutical market in the post-sanctions period. However, given underlying operating challenges within Iran's pharmaceutical market, the arrival of multinational drugmakers will be a gradual process, rather than an immediate boom.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: IRR69.55trn (USD1.93bn) in 2015 to IRR79.85trn (USD2.00bn) in 2016; +14.8% in local currency terms and +3.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast u pgraded from p revious quarter.
Healthcare: IRR800.60trn (USD22.24bn) in 2015 to IRR898.48trn (USD22.46bn) in 2016; +12.2% in local currency terms and +1.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast downgraded from previous quarter .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: World Health Organization, UN Comtrade, National sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||1.910||1.930||2.000||2.290||2.510||2.760||3.030|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.45||0.41||0.59||0.56||0.55||0.55||0.56|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||8.5||8.7||8.9||9.1||9.3||9.5||9.7|
|Health spending, USDbn||22.360||22.240||22.460||25.240||27.060||29.050||31.290|
Iran scores 40.4 out of 100 in terms of its attractiveness as a destination to launch innovative pharmaceuticals in Q316, up from 38.0 in the previous quarter, according to BMI's Risk/Reward Index. Iran's position in the regional rankings has jumped four places in Q316 to 15th out of the 31 countries in the Middle East and Africa region. Its overall score is steadily approaching the regional average of 41.3. Generally speaking, Iran benefits from a large and growing population and relatively widespread access to healthcare services. However, its regulatory regime - including intellectual property rights and economic situation - is highly questionable. Consequently, the country performs below the regional average in terms of risk despite improvements in the political situation.
In May 2016, Iran and Japan announced a new agreement to boost bilateral cooperation in the areas of construction and equipment of hospitals, transferring of PhD students and pharmaceuticals.
In May 2016, the Addiction Department of the Ministry of Health announced plans to open 140 alcohol rehab clinics by the end of the year. The plan aims to reduce the number of Iranians who suffer from alcohol addiction, currently numbered at 200,000.
BMI Economic View
Iran's banking sector will benefit from the removal of most sanctions at the start of 2016, but will remain in a state of near-crisis over the coming quarters. Lending growth will pick up sharply in line with an improving economy, and low base effects and lower inflation will ensure sustained deposit growth.
BMI Political View
The results of the runoffs in Iran's parliamentary elections show an even larger swing in favour of the moderate and reformist camp within Iranian politics than the first round of voting, offering a major boost to President Rouhani following the nuclear deal and ahead of presidential elections in June 2017, which we expect him to win.
The Iran Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Iran Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iran pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Iran, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iranian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.