Iran Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 09 June 2015

  • 121 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Iran Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: The gradual easing of sanctions in Iran will lead to an uptick in interest from multinational pharmaceutical companies, many of which chose not to do business in Iran during this time. The supply of high value patented medicines will still be satisfied by multinationals despite increasing competition from domestic companies, with the easing of sanctions providing a more attractive operating environment .

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: IRR60,704bn (USD2.35bn) in 2014 to IRR68,851bn (USD1.91bn) in 2015; +13.4% in local currency terms and -18.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from previous quarter.

  • Healthcare: IRR694,087bn (USD21.83bn) in 2014 to IRR791,797bn (USD21.99bn) in 2015; +14.1% in local currency terms and +0.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised on new market data.

Risk/Reward Index

Iran's business environment is rated 33.1 out of 100 in Q315, down from 41.5 in the previous quarter, according to BMI's Risk/Reward Index. Iran's position in the regional rankings declined two places in the regional rankings to 23rd out of 30 countries in the Middle East and Africa in Q315. Its overall score is considerably below the regional average of 41.7. Generally speaking, Iran benefits from a large and growing population, and relatively widespread access to healthcare services. However, its regulatory regime - including intellectual property rights and economic situation - is highly questionable. Consequently, the country performs below the regional average in terms of risk despite improvements in the political situation.

Key Trends And Developments

  • Iran will open a production line for branded generic drugs licensed by European and US companies, according to Press TV in May 2015. The plant, located about 100km southwest of Tehran, has been built with an investment of USD8mn, according to Behestan Pharmaceutical Company's CEO Mehdi Balochestani. The plant will initially produce 12 brands of drugs.

  • In May 2015, Iranian...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
13
Operational Risk
14
Industry Forecast
16
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
16
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iran 2011-2019)
19
Healthcare Market Forecast
20
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iran 2011-2019)
22
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iran 2011-2019)
22
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iran 2011-2019)
23
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
24
Patented Drug Market Forecast
25
Generic Drug Market Forecast
26
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
27
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Iran 2013-2019)
31
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Iran 2013-2019)
31
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
32
Macroeconomic Forecasts
33
Economy To Grow Again On Sanctions Relief
33
Table: Economic Activity (Iran 2010-2019)
39
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Iran 2012-2019)
39
Industry Risk Reward Index
41
Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Index
41
Iran Risk/Reward Index
49
Rewards
49
Risks
49
Market Overview
51
Industry Trends And Developments
53
Epidemiology
53
Table: HIV/AIDS Prevalence In Iran
55
Healthcare Sector
55
Table: Healthcare Resources (Iran 2009-2014)
58
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Iran 2009-2014)
58
Table: Healthcare Activity (Iran 2009-2014)
59
Healthcare Insurance
59
International Healthcare Collaboration
61
Traditional Herbal Remedies
61
Research & Development
62
Biotechnology
63
Clinical Trials
65
Regulatory Development
66
Intellectual Property Regime
68
Counterfeit Medicines
69
Pricing And Reimbursement
69
Competitive Landscape
72
Pharmaceutical Sector
72
Generic Drugmakers
74
Table: Leading Drug Manufacturers, Iranian Year To March 20, 2009
74
Pharmaceutical Distribution
77
Table: Leading Distributors, Iranian Year To March 20 2008
79
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
79
Company Profile
80
Amin Pharmaceutical Company
80
Caspian Tamin Pharmaceutical Company
82
Darou Pakhsh
85
Exir Pharmaceuticals
88
GlaxoSmithKline
90
Merck & Co
92
Novartis
94
Pars Darou
96
Pfizer
98
Pharmieco
100
Sanofi
102
Sina Darou Pharmaceutical Company
104
Zahravi Pharmaceutical Company
106
Demographic Forecast
109
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Iran 1990-2025)
110
Table: Key Population Ratios (Iran 1990-2025)
110
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Iran 1990-2025)
111
Table: Population By Age Group (Iran 1990-2025)
111
Table: Population By Age Group % (Iran 1990-2025)
112
Glossary
114
Methodology
116
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
116
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
116
Notes On Methodology
117
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
118
Index Overview
119
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
119
Indicator Weightings
120

The Iran Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Iran Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iran pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Iran, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iranian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc