BMI View: In light of easing economic sanctions, international drugmakers - both R&D-based and generic drug firm s - will seek to gain a local presence in Iran's pharmaceutical market. Import restrictions mean supply opportunities will be very problematic for generic drugmakers without a local presence. The supply of patented drugs will be easier for multinationals, although a local presence will be the ideal scenario for most drugmakers.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: IRR60.70tn (USD2.35bn) in 2014 to IRR69.55trn (USD1.93bn) in 2015; +14.6% in local currency terms and -17.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from p revious quarter.
Healthcare: IRR711.91trn (USD22.39bn) in 2014 to IRR819.73trn (USD22.77bn) in 2015; +15.1% in local currency terms and +1.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly upgraded from previous quarter .
Iran scores 33.9 out of 100 in terms of its attractiveness as a destination to launch innovative pharmaceuticals in Q116, up from 33.1 in the previous quarter, according to BMI's Risk/Reward Index. Iran's position in the regional rankings has risen one place in Q116 to 20th out of the 31 countries in the Middle East and Africa region. Its overall score is considerably below the regional average of 40.3. Generally speaking, Iran benefits from a large and growing population and relatively widespread access to healthcare services. However, its regulatory regime - including intellectual property rights and economic situation - is highly questionable. Consequently, the country performs below the regional average in terms of risk despite improvements in the political situation.
Key Trends And Developments
Iranian manufacturers of pharmaceuticals and medical devices are looking at the possibility of exporting their products to Belarus, according to the commercial attache at the Iranian Embassy in Belarus, Ali Reza Sihon, in November 2015. The country has the capabilities to export drugs and medical equipment and manufacturers can plan to enter the Belarusian market after in depth analysis, Sihon noted. Highlighting the need for increased trade between the countries, Sihon added that exports to Belarus would be focused on generic drugs.
A pharmaceutical firm in Iran, affiliated with the social security organisation, has used the latest technology to enable domestic production of beta-lactam antibiotics, according to Naderi Alizadeh, head of the Iranian Antibiotics Production Company in October 2015. Beta-lactam antibiotics consist of all antibiotic agents that contain a beta-lactam ring in their molecular structures. The locally produced antibiotics are now available at a cost which is nearly half the price of the imported drugs in the country. The domestic production of the antibiotics will help the country to save around USD5mn, noted Alizadeh.
Poland will invest in the production of medical equipment and high-tech drugs in Iran, according to Iran's Health Minister Seyed Hassan Qazizadeh Hashemi in October 2015. A memorandum of understanding on medical and pharmaceutical cooperation was signed between the countries during a meeting with the Polish Prime Minister and Minister of Economy in Tehran in September 2015.
BMI Economic View
Iran's economy will see a substantial uptick in growth in the coming years as a result of the removal of sanctions. Three years of recession will end, but a long-lasting boom is still a long way off given structural issues in the economy.
BMI Political View
The Iranian nuclear agreement paves the way for the return to growth of the Iranian economy and the reopening of a crucial market, with consumer and infrastructure companies particularly well-positioned to benefit. However, operational and political risk concerns will dampen the growth dividends from sanctions relief. The deal also has significant geopolitical implications, and will exacerbate the existing oversupply in the global oil market.
The Iran Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Iran Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iran pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Iran, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iranian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.