BMI View: With sanctions lifted, Iran has improving prospects of opening up to a wider diversity of trading partners and providing strategic opportunities for multinational pharmaceutical companies. By reintegrating into the financial transaction system SWIFT, the import of pharmaceutical-related products will ease and prevent future drug shortages . Both innovative and generic drugmakers will look to gain a local presence within the country , given the growing demand for essential medicines and likely improvements to healthcare provision.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: IRR69.55tn (USD1.93bn) in 2015 to IRR78.95trn (USD1.97bn) in 2016; +13.5% in local currency terms and -2.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast u pgraded from p revious quarter.
Healthcare: IRR810.99trn (USD22.53bn) in 2015 to IRR923.35trn (USD23.08bn) in 2016; +13.9% in local currency terms and +2.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast upgraded from previous quarter .
Iran scores 38.0 out of 100 in terms of its attractiveness as a destination to launch innovative pharmaceuticals in Q216, up from 33.9 in the previous quarter, according to BMI's Risk/Reward Index. Iran's position in the regional rankings has risen one place in Q216 to 19th out of the 31 countries in the Middle East and Africa region. Its overall score is steadily approaching the regional average of 40.3.
Generally speaking, Iran benefits from a large and growing population and relatively widespread access to healthcare services. However, its regulatory regime - including intellectual property rights and economic situation - is highly questionable. Consequently, the country performs below the regional average in terms of risk despite improvements in the political situation.
Key Trends And Developments
In January 2016, Sanofi signed a Memorandum of Cooperation (MoC) with Iran's government, aimed at boosting its presence in the country. This agreement falls in line with Sanofi's expansion activities across the Middle Eastern region in 2014 and 2015. The company is well-placed to benefit from the increasing demand for generic drugs and the currently favoured patented drugs segment.
In January 2016, Italian group Pessina Costruzioni announced a deal to build five hospitals in Iran as companies scramble to steal a march on rivals with trade heating up. The Milan-based company signed an Memorandum of Understanding with Iran's Ministry of Health in Tehran, where three of the 1,000-bed hospitals will be built.
BMI Economic View
The outlook on the Iranian economy over the next five years is positive as the country benefits from major sanctions relief. Despite this, we believe much of the excitement about a sudden opening in Iran is hype and investment will take some time before it flows in.
BMI Political View
The rapid termination of sanctions represents a key victory for President Hassan Rouhani; however, the longer-term relationship between Iran and the US faces significant risks. With a new administration in the White House in January 2017, Iranian presidential elections in 2017 and concerns over the supreme leader's health, the confluence of moderates and pragmatists may be just a phase - posing risks to the longevity of the deal.
The Iran Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Iran Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iran pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Iran, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iranian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.