The outlook for the Iranian shipping sector is brighter than it has been in recent years, and we forecast a second consecutive year of growth at the primary container port of Bandar Abbas in 2015. The ongoing easing of sanctions - not least on the port operator itself - will boost throughput. We expect a significant easing of sanctions following a likely agreement in summer 2015. However, we note risk to our projections from the volatile price of oil in recent quarters. The general trend is that Brent crude will average considerably less than in recent years - we forecast and average of USD53 per barrel in 2015 - meaning that the economic boost from easing sanctions will be limited. Iranian consumers will continue to be under pressure, and a massive ramp up in containerised goods imports is unlikely.
That said, the removal of port operator Tidewater from sanctions in late 2014 will provide a fundamental boost to the facility as any goods which have been being shipped overland as a result of the embargo will steadily begin to return to transferring through the port.
Headline Industry Data
2015 port of Bandar Abbas throughput forecast to grow by 6.7%, and average growth of 6.8% to 2019.
2019 port of Bandar Abbas throughput expected to reach 2.2mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) - still insufficient to match 2011 volumes.
2015 total real trade is forecast to return to contract by 0.4% as oil prices fall.
Key Industry Trends
EU Sanctions Re-imposed: In February and March 2015, sanctions against IRISL - and 40 other Iranian shipping firms including NITC - were re-imposed by the EU. These sanctions had been removed following a series of court victories by Iranian firms. The shipping firms' lawyer, Maryam Taher, criticised the move for being politically motivated, with no basis on proper evidence. 'The whole purpose of the EU sanctions is to leverage pressure on the Iranian government to come to an agreement in relation to nuclear proliferation,' she said....
The Iran Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and BMI Research's independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Iran.
BMI's Iran Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Iran.
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Iran to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iranian shipping market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Iran through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.