BMI View: Iran's telecoms market is an underperformer in the Middle East as a result of political and economic risks, exacerbated by currency depreciation, which is limiting access to the latest devices. However, the Iranian government is making headway in the process of lifting the sanctions and is adding upside to our outlook. BMI 's Country Risk team has made a slight upward revision to our economic growth forecast for Iran, in anticipation of a deal with the West in July 2015, projecting real GDP growth to pick up from 0.6% in 2015, to 2.9% in 2016 and 3.6% in 2017. This is also likely to have a positive impact on the mobile market and potentially attract more foreign investment. Although the mobile penetration in Iran is relatively high at 136.1%, BMI believes that there is further scope for growth. Data services, in particular, will grow at an average rate of 36.2% CAGR over the next five years.
We estimate that fixed-line connections increased by 3.0% in 2014 and we expect growth to slow down in the forecast period because of fixed-mobile substitution and a greater focus on mobile services from fixed incumbent TCI.
We estimate that the country ended 2014 with over 111mn subscribers, boosted by MTN's performance in the latter part of the year after it launched 3G services.
We estimate there were around 9.9mn 3G subscriptions at the end of 2014 and forecast a figure of 18.9mn at the end of 2015 and we expect the rapid growth to continue over the short term as more operators launch advanced services.
Key Trends And Developments
On April 2, members of the P5+1 - the US, the UK, France, Russia, China plus Germany - agreed to lift sanctions against the Islamic Republic once a final deal on its nuclear programme is reached. The deadline for negotiations is June 30. BMI believes it to be likely that the sanctions will be lifted and as a result, our country risk team upgraded its forecast for Iranian economic growth. This could...
The Iran Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Iran's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Iran Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Iran.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Iran to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iranian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Iran's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.