Iran-US Rapprochement: Historic Opportunities Beckon


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Iran-US Rapprochement: Historic Opportunities Beckon
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‘The tentative rapprochement between Iran and the US, which began in the second half of 2013, has the potential to become a world-changing development, and unleash tremendous geopolitical and economic opportunities, if it is sustained. Tehran and Washington have been bitter enemies since 1979, when the Iranian Revolution overthrew the pro-American Shah and replaced him with a virulently anti-Western Islamist regime. Since then, Iran has been at the vanguard of countries actively challenging the US-led world order. This has led to instability in the Middle East, and Iran's relative isolation in international affairs. Yet, if Iran and the US were to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could decline sharply, and Iran could come to be perceived as a promising emerging market in its own right.’

Business Monitor International (BMI) has just published a brand new Special Report examining the implications of the ongoing negotiations between Iran and the West over the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme.

The report outlines:

  • A strategic overview of Iran's position in the Middle East and the world system
  • Scenario analysis of the potential outcomes of the negotiations
  • The risks involved for Iran and the US
  • The implications of negotiations for the global oil market
  • Economic opportunities arising from a relaxation of sanctions, with a focus on the UAE and Oman
  • The geopolitical implications, especially the concerns of Israel and Saudi Arabia

We outline three possible scenarios for how negotiations might unfold, and draw the implications for our oil price forecasts. We identify opportunities for investors stemming from a relaxation of sanctions on Iran, particularly within Dubai's and Oman's re-export sectors. We also analyse the political implications of a nuclear deal, and note that Saudi Arabia could be a 'loser'. Meanwhile, we expect Israel to refrain from military action, while negotiations proceed.

The report will be of interest to international oil companies and affiliated industries, countries that import much of their oil from the Middle East, investors with a heavy exposure to the Gulf region and wider Middle East, foreign policy think tanks, and foreign and defence ministries of the major world powers and Middle Eastern states.

The report demonstrates BMI’s ability to look beyond near-term trends and utilise our breadth and depth of knowledge to paint detailed scenarios relevant to investors with a multi-regional focus. It draws on BMI’s 30 years of experience to critically evaluate the outlook for the scenario unfolding between Iran and the US, helping you assess the role this could play in your company’s growth strategy for 2014 and beyond